Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY
1250 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms move through today as a cold front
pushes eastward. Much cooler weather on Friday with showers
dissipating.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Thursday...

A cold front has entered western portions of the forecast area
and stretches from roughly Jackson, KY, to Huntington, to
Zanesville, OH. The thin line of showers along the surface front
have been dissipating over the past hour or so. Further east, a
more robust convective line of showers (roughly from Pikeville,
KY, to Charleston, to Clarksburg) has developed. Gradient winds
across the area have waned, but continue to gust to between 25
and 35 mph at times. Therefore have allowed the wind advisories
to expire.

Getting plenty of extra sunlight within the dry slot currently
in place across the area. The extra insolation has resulted in
MLCAPES of around 500 J/kg in places and surface based CAPES
closer to 1000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 40+ kts will help
ensure the continued development of showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon, with some stronger thunderstorms
producing locally higher wind gusts in the vicinity of any
convection. These showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push eastward ahead of the cold front, which is expected to be
through our forecast area by this evening. Updated the forecast
package to bring hourly temps closer to more recent surface
observations. This resulted in a slight bump in afternoon high
temperatures, especially across the east. Also tweaks PoPs for
to better match recent radar trends. CAMs are handling the
evolution of convection quite well at present. Thus blended
towards more recent CAM PoP solutions through the remainder of
the afternoon.

As of 1000 AM Thursday...

Partial clearing from elongated dry slot is allowing for a bit
more sun. Afternoon highs look reasonable, however bumped up
hourly temps just a bit, especially across the central portions
of the area to capture those warmer trends. Will allow wind
advisory to ride out across the far east (southeast Randolph &
northwest Pocahontas). Cold front still on track to push through
the area this afternoon and should be entering our northwestern
zones by late morning. Short wave impulse appears to be out
running the surface system just a bit. Thus best potential for
stronger storms remains across the far east. SPC has trimmed
off the western portion of our Marginal Risk to now include only
the extreme east. General thunder remains across the central
portion of the forecast area with the front still just to our
west. Will update the forecast again with expiration of the wind
advisory at 11.

As of 640 AM Thursday...

Starting to see temperatures fall across our western zones this
morning as passing showers cool the atmospheric column. Thinking
still stands that a west to east progression in lowering
temperatures will happen today as the cold front makes it
passage overhead.

Winds have also begun to settle down across the western half of
the forecast area as the low level jet departs eastward. Allowed
the Wind Advisory to expire for the southern WV coalfields,
eastern Kentucky, and southwest Virginia areas with further
expiration coming up in the next few hours for our mountain
zones.

As of 345 AM Thursday...

The eastern flank of an upper level trough is currently making
its way through the forecast area with a strong low level jet
positioned overhead. The KRLX VAD wind profile analyzes 45-55
kts (50-65 mph) parked just above the surface, resulting in
overnight breezy wind gusts. A Wind Advisory remains in effect
early this morning to account for these stronger wind gusts and
will expire from west to east respectively as the jet aloft
shifts towards the eastern seaboard as the day progresses.

In addition to the potent low level jet, a cold front stemming
off of a surface low pressure system will swing into the area
today. Showers and thunderstorms will be aligned along the
front, arriving into the western fringes of the area at the time
of writing. These showers are encountering dry air in the lower
levels thanks to our warm afternoon yesterday, which should
help minimize convection potential initially this morning.

Scattering clouds and partial clearing skies along the higher
terrain this morning will promote destabilization for peak
heating hours. The cold front will be the source of lift needed
to sprout isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. A few of these
storms may become strong to severe east of the I-77 corridor,
which is painted by SPC under a marginal risk. Better dynamics
will exist along the Mid-Atlantic region down into the Carolinas
where the departing low level jet will be found by this time.
Main hazards expected in our forecast area with storms today
will be damaging wind gusts.

In the wake of the frontal passage tonight, the base of the
upper trough will swing through and will be accompanied by a
colder airmass. Sub-zero H85 temperatures will cruise into the
area after sunset, resulting in surface temperatures to plummet
back below freezing overnight. Post-frontal showers will
continue to stream into the Central Appalachians tonight, with
mountain snow plausible at the end of the period into the start
of the short term forecast. A few tenths of an inch of snow may
be observed before sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

A chance for light showers continues through Friday as a low moves
east from the Great Lakes. Any accumulations would be confined to
the mountains with less than a tenth of an inch expected. For higher
elevations rain may mix with or change over to light snow before
tapering off Friday night. Cooler than normal conditions are
expected through the weekend as another low digging out of Canada
brings re-enforcing cooler air. A chance for rain showers
accompany this system as it moves across late Saturday evening
and overnight with the mountains expected to see a mix of rain
and snow. Clearing skies behind the weekend low allows maximum
cooling Sunday night with temperature falling into the 30s
region wide with slightly cooler temperatures across the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

On Monday temperatures rebound as the upper level pattern shifts,
returning southwesterly flow over the region. There is high
uncertainty between models at the start of the new week as they
diverge on solutions involving the next series of disturbances which
originate initially from the southern plains. Overall, the pattern
appears to be wetter and warmer through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 AM Thursday...

A cold front is just entering extreme western portions of the
forecast area. A very thin line of weak showers exists along the
surface front as it slides eastward. A more robust convective
line of showers (roughly from KCRW to KCKB) is developing along
a prefrontal surface boundary, within an elongated dry slot that
has allowed for extra sunlight across portions of the area.
This is pretty much in line with higher resolution CAMs, which
indicates a continued enhancement of this line of convection
along the surface boundary and eastward through the afternoon.
These showers, and eventual thunderstorms, will likely have some
gusty winds associated with them. Maintained VCTS for those
sites east of the developing line that would be most likely to
see convection sprout nearby. Lower MVFR ceilings will roll into
the area post FROPA as the surface boundary pushes through,
exiting the forecast area by this evening, roughly by 03Z.
Breezy surface gusts will continue to affect terminals, to
around 30 kts at times. Locally higher gusts can be expected in
the vicinity of the more intense showers, along with any
thunderstorms. Winds eventually subside through the evening into
tonight once the front completes its passage through the
region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the highest wind gusts may vary
slightly from forecast. May have a few thunderstorms at a site
or two this afternoon and/or evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
EDT 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CIGs possible along the higher elevations into Friday
morning. IFR CIGs possible late Saturday night along the
northeast mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...07/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/JKL
SHORT TERM...07/GW
LONG TERM...07/GW
AVIATION...MEK/JKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY
1001 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

KYZ101>103-105-011415-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
1001 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will cross the area today ahead
of a cold front. Locally strong wind gusts may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-011415-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-
1001 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will cross the area today ahead
of a cold front. Locally strong wind gusts may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>522-524-525-011415-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-
Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-
Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
1001 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and much
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will cross the area today ahead
of a cold front. Locally strong wind gusts may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A wintry mix will occur Friday morning with possible snow
accumulations less than 1 inch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ523-526-011415-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph-
1001 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will cross the area today ahead
of a cold front. Locally strong wind gusts may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A wintry mix will occur Friday morning with snow accumulations of 1
to 2 inches possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1233 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

WVZ031-032-311700-
Harrison WV-Taylor WV-
1233 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT TAYLOR AND CENTRAL HARRISON
COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

At 1231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nutter Fort, or near Clarksburg, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksburg, Grafton, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Stonewood, Nutter Fort,
Lumberport, Anmoore, Enterprise, West Milford, Flemington, Valley
Falls, Rosemont, Wolf Summit, Meadland, Thornton, McGee, Meadowbrook,
Despard, and Knottsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 7990 3915 8043 3925 8052 3944 8030
      3943 8026 3939 8020 3940 8012 3941 8011
      3939 8009 3940 8003 3942 8000 3943 7997
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 232DEG 35KT 3924 8041

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1236 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

WVZ015-025-026-515-311700-
Northwest Raleigh WV-Boone WV-Kanawha WV-Logan WV-
1236 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN BOONE COUNTY THROUGH 100
PM EDT...

At 1236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Van, or 9 miles southeast of Madison, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Van, Wharton, Whitesville, Sylvester, Seth, Leewood, Prenter,
Eskdale, and Sharples.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3793 8184 3817 8157 3813 8144 3800 8137
      3799 8138 3785 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 232DEG 35KT 3796 8169

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1239 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

WVZ015-016-018-027-028-311715-
Calhoun WV-Clay WV-Roane WV-Kanawha WV-Braxton WV-
1239 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CLAY COUNTY THROUGH 115 PM
EDT...

At 1239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Glen, or 10 miles west of Clay, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clay, Big Otter, Wallback, Glen, Harrison, Nebo, Ivydale, Procious,
Servia, and Chloe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3832 8125 3844 8136 3870 8112 3867 8097
      3851 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 227DEG 39KT 3842 8127

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1248 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

WVZ034-515-516-311715-
Wyoming WV-Northwest Raleigh WV-Southeast Raleigh WV-
1248 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RALEIGH AND CENTRAL
WYOMING COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

At 1248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Twin Falls State Park, or 7 miles northeast of Pineville, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beckley, Pineville, Mullens, Mabscott, Sophia, Crab Orchard, Dry
Creek, Macarthur, Coal City, Bradley, Shady Spring, Prosperity, Twin
Falls State Park, Beaver, Daniels, Piney View, Stanaford, Lester,
Rhodell, and Bolt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 8151 3768 8158 3789 8128 3789 8124
      3783 8110 3767 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 235DEG 35KT 3765 8144

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1254 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

WVZ032-040-311730-
Barbour WV-Taylor WV-
1254 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
BARBOUR COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

At 1254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Philippi, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grafton, Philippi, Flemington, Moatsville, Tygart Lake State Park,
Thornton, Rosemont, Knottsville, Galloway, and Nestorville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 7982 3921 7981 3911 8005 3926 8018
      3944 7991 3943 7989 3930 7989 3929 7986
      3927 7985 3925 7985 3924 7981
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 235DEG 35KT 3923 8004

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1259 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

WVZ015-027-517-519-311730-
Clay WV-Kanawha WV-Northwest Nicholas WV-Northwest Fayette WV-
1259 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL NICHOLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN KANAWHA...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE
COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

At 1258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burnwell, or 18 miles west of Fayetteville, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Montgomery, Ansted, Cedar Grove, Glasgow, Smithers, Gauley Bridge,
Pratt, Burnwell, Powellton, Handley, Leewood, Dawes, Swiss, Indore,
Sharon, Eskdale, Bentree, and Pond Gap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 8140 3814 8153 3842 8115 3820 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 235DEG 35KT 3811 8144

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Kramar