Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
315 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue with shower and thunderstorm
chances through the work week. Drier conditions finally return
behind a cold frontal passage this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 313 PM Wednesday...

The forecast area remains active as a subtropical ridge remains
positioned over the Mississippi Valley, allowing persistent
northwest flow to bring H500 shortwave energy along it. At the
surface, a cold front becomes nearly stationary from west to east
across the northern third of our CWA tonight, keeping chances for
showers or storms going along and south of the boundary into
Thursday.

Guidance consensus points at mostly cloudy skies prevailing tonight.
Despite of antecedent precipitation, cloud cover and a little
agitation of the winds veering from the north by Thursday
morning, will likely prevent widespread dense fog formation
overnight tonight. Instead, prefer forecasting a low stratus
deck developing overnight into the predawn hours Thursday
morning.

Any strong thunderstorm will be able to produce very heavy downpour
amid of PWATs exceeding 2 inches tonight. Due to recent and expected
rainfall, a Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through Thursday
morning. Heavy downpours could cause localized flash flooding with
slow moving or repetitive rainfall. In addition, a Severe
Thunderstorm watch remains in effect through 7 PM this evening.
Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 201 PM Wednesday...

Latest guidance indicates a mid/upper level trof will push across
the area on Friday in the northwesterly flow. At the surface,
the cold front may finally exit the area Thursday night into
Friday. However, this feature may be slow to push away from the
area.

Current thinking is that there will be a high probability of showers
and storms Friday with the chances slowly decreasing from the
northwest through the remainder of the period.

SPC currently has our central and southern counties highlighted for
a marginal risk of severe storms on Friday. Please see latest
SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook /SWODY3/ for details.

Because of abundant low-level moisture and the possibility of wet to
saturated antecedent condition, WPC has a slight risk of
excessive rainfall for the region on Friday as well. The threat
of water issues should gradually decrease from the north Friday
into Friday night as the front slowly moves away.

Depending on the clouds and precipitation, daytime temperatures
should be slightly below normal to near normal both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1231 PM Wednesday...

High pressure building in from the northwest will result in many
locations being dry by Sunday. However, diurnal heating may
result in the development of a few showers and storms on Sunday
across the mountain counties.

The high will push southeast Sunday night resulting in southerly
winds and increasing moisture again by Monday. A cold front is
approach the area Tuesday and then push southeast by Wednesday.
As a result, chances for showers and storms will increase
Tuesday with the chance of precipitation continuing through the
remainder of the period.

Temperature guidance suggests highs Sunday will be slightly
below normal with readings near normal Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 138 PM Wednesday...

A second cluster of showers and thunderstorms is evident on radar
moving southeast across OH. Tracking tool indicates arrival of
convection to the Middle Ohio Valley around 18Z. The strongest
storms seem like will pass south of PKB early this afternoon, but
bringing just showers to PKB. Uncertain whether this activity will
sustain all the way to reach CRW. So, coded VCTS for now at CRW.
VCTS was also coded for most sites as convection is expected to fire
up later this afternoon and evening as a frontal boundary gets
closer to the north. Models have this boundary dropping south as a
cold front, different as becoming stationary across the north of the
area as previously forecasted. Therefore, expect unsettled
conditions along and south of this boundary mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours through Thursday.

Despite of the antecedent rainfall and weak flow at the surface and
aloft, abundant cloudiness is progged to prevent ideal radiational
cooling and associated dense fog development. Therefore, expect
IFR/MVFR low stratus to prevail at most places with just few hours
of IFR under dense fog at EKN.

Southwest winds 10 knots or less will become light as they veer from
the northwest later tonight behind the cold front. Winds will
continue to veer becoming northerly on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR dense fog possible at PKB is clearing
materialize behind the front overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Localized IFR conditions are possible in moderate to heavy
showers and thunderstorms through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WVZ006>011-013>020-
     026>029.
OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
531 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

OHZ086-087-WVZ006>008-013>016-018-026>028-070945-
Gallia-Lawrence OH-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Calhoun-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
531 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central, southern and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is also a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly this
afternoon and evening. The main severe threat is damaging wind gusts,
although large hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall the remainder of
Thursday and Thursday night, as well as a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms, mainly late Thursday and Thursday evening.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall and a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday night mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours.

The main severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although large hail
is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-WVZ009>011-017-019-020-029-070945-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Wood-
Pleasants-Tyler-Wirt-Ritchie-Doddridge-Gilmer-
531 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is also a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly this
afternoon and evening. The main severe threat is damaging wind
gusts, although large hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall the remainder of
Thursday and Thursday night, as well as a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms, mainly late Thursday and Thursday evening. The main
severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although large hail is also
possible.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-024-025-033-070945-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Mingo-Logan-
McDowell-
531 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southwest
Virginia, and southern West Virginia along the Tug Fork.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive
rainfall today and tonight, mainly for this afternoon and evening.
The main severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although large hail is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms and a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall Thursday through Friday night, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours. The main severe threat is damaging
wind gusts, although large hail is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ034-515>524-070945-
Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-
531 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the central mountains of West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms today and tonight, mainly for this afternoon and
evening. The main severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although
large hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night, mainly for the afternoon
and evening hours. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall and
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday night,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The main severe
threat is damaging wind gusts, although large hail is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ030>032-039-040-525-526-070945-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
531 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall and a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms today and tonight, mainly for this afternoon
and evening. The main severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although
large hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night, mainly for the afternoon
and evening hours. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall and
Friday. The main severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although
large hail is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

MEK / TRM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
604 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE CHARLESTON        38.34N 81.63W
07/06/2022                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT 1500 VIRGINIA ST EAST.

&&

ARJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE CHARLESTON        38.34N 81.61W
07/06/2022                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT 1588 KILBY STREET CHARLESTON.

&&

ARJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE CHARLESTON         38.34N 81.61W
07/06/2022  M1.30 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC

            RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURED 1.30 INCHES OF
            RAIN IN JUST UNDER 30 MINUTES.

&&

FMK