Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
856 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and potentially strong thunderstorms in WV early
tonight ahead of a cold front. Mostly dry and warm into the
weekend per high pressure. Next cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 855 PM Wednesday...

Strong to severe thunderstorms moving southeast through WV
impacting this evening took advantage of strong CAPE, which was
waning, but bulk shear associated with a cold front entering
the area from the north was increasing a bit. This, with dew
points up around 70, was allowing thunderstorms to persist into
the night, essentially until they move out of the area around
midnight. Severe thunderstorm watch 402 was canceled in
southeast Ohio.

The forecast remains on track, with patchy fog likely in there
wake early Thursday morning. Other than morning stratocu in and
near the mountains Thursday morning, high pressure will bring
about sunshine with lower temperatures and humidity on
Thursday.

As of 230 PM Wednesday...

A shortwave trough migrating into the Great Lakes accompanied
by a surface cold front will be the primary feature of focus
through the course of the forecast period. Puffy afternoon cu
field at the time of writing will begin to transform as diurnal
heating erodes away at remnant convective inhibition in place.
Vertical development of the afternoon cu will tap into mixed
layer CAPE values on the upwards of 2500 J/kg to spark strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms, especially across the northeast
portions of the forecast area. Shear values will be more
utilized east of the Appalachians, so organization of storms
will be more isolated in nature in our neck of the woods.
Primary hazards that will be monitored with convection this
afternoon will be damaging winds, large hail, and localized
water issues from heavy downpours. Opted to not extend the
higher potential of POPs along the western flank of the line
based on timing and latest analysis of higher resolution models.

Lingering showers will hug the mountains after midnight into
Thursday morning, while the remainder of the area begins to feel
the influence of surface high pressure and the eastern extent
of ridging aloft. Dry weather then triumphs for the concluding
hours of the period.

Hot and muggy conditions currently reside over the Central
Appalachians with most reporting sites observing temperatures
stretching into the low 90s and dew points slowly rising into
the upper 60s/low 70s. Heat index values have crossed into the
triple digits across areas along the Ohio River Valley, which
warranted the Heat Advisory in effect until this evening. Lack
of a cold airmass dropping down in the wake of the cold front
will maintain warm temperatures on Thursday, but knocked down
closer to the climatological norm for this time of year in
comparison to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

High pressure sliding over or just north of the area will help
to keep the region dry in this period with partly to mostly
sunny skies and winds on the light side. Temps may warm slightly
from Thursday, but still expecting mountain highs in the 70s
and lower elevation highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

As the high pressure area slides off the Mid-Atlantic coast,
low level winds will shift and bring increasing moisture back to
the area on Saturday. As a result, we may be able to fire off a
few showers or thunderstorms Saturday afternoon or evening,
with the best chances in the southern part of the CWA, and
perhaps up the higher terrain on the eastern border. However, a
much more coherent area of precipitation is expected Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the
northwest and passes through the area. We'll have to assess the
severe potential as it gets closer, but as of now, while
instability may be decent ahead of the front, shear may be
minimal. Behind the front, we can expect clear skies with cooler
and much more comfortable weather. Highs Monday and Tuesday are
forecast for the upper 70s to lower 80s at lower elevations,
with dewpoints down into the 50s, and perhaps even upper 40s in
some spots. A wind shift and increasing heights may allow for
temps to start rising again on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 855 PM Wednesday...

Strong to severe thunderstorms moving southeast through WV
impacting this evening, impacting CRW, CKB and EKN right at the
start of the period, will also impact BKW 01Z-03Z before moving
out of the area around 04Z. Fog may develop at these sites
overnight and break up around dawn. MVFR stratocu accompanying
and following the thunderstorms may also reform early Thursday
morning in and near the mountains.

High pressure building into the area will then bring MVFR
conditions late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm impacts early on will vary
with additional amendments likely needed. Fog and stratocu may
vary into Thursday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 06/23/22
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR stratus/fog possible Friday morning along the eastern
slopes of the higher terrain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/MEK
NEAR TERM...TRM/MEK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...TRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
811 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013>015-025>027-034-515>520-240015-
Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Logan-Boone-Clay-
Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
811 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and much of southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and large hail
this evening. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with
isolated flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ007>011-016>020-028>032-039-040-521>526-240015-
Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
811 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of northern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and large hail
this evening. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with
isolated flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-240015-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
811 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and large hail
this evening. Isolated flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-033-240015-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-McDowell-
811 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and far
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and large hail
this evening. Isolated flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-240015-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
811 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
825 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW OAK HILL          38.93N 82.65W
06/22/2022                   JACKSON            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            5 TREES DOWN IN THE AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
831 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W PHILIPPI            39.15N 80.06W
06/22/2022  E0.27 INCH       BARBOUR            WV   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
832 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

WVZ030>032-039-040-525-526-230100-
Barbour WV-Northwest Randolph WV-Harrison WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
Lewis WV-Southeast Randolph WV-
832 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Randolph, southwestern Taylor, northern Lewis, northern Upshur,
Barbour and southern Harrison Counties through 900 PM EDT...

At 832 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Philippi, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksburg, Elkins, Buckhannon, Weston, Philippi, Audra State Park,
Bridgeport, Belington, Stonewood, Nutter Fort, Anmoore, Jackson Mill,
West Milford, Junior, Lost Creek, Jane Lew, Montrose, Pheasant Run,
Wolf Summit and Bowden.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 95 and 118.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 72 and 75, and near
mile marker 80.
 Route 33 between mile markers 1 and 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northern and northeastern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 7954 3904 8065 3929 8046 3923 7981
      3913 7984 3908 7978 3904 7978 3900 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 318DEG 16KT 3913 8007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
839 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          3 NE ALBANY             39.26N 82.16W
06/22/2022                   ATHENS             OH   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF SEVERE DAMAGE TO TREES AND HOMES,
            DOWN POWER LINES. HEAVY WIND, CLOUDS WITH
            ROTATION.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
847 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             6 S SUMMERSVILLE        38.20N 80.85W
06/22/2022  E1.00 INCH       NICHOLAS           WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
854 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W GREENUP             38.58N 82.94W
06/22/2022                   GREENUP            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN.

&&