River Flood Warning 19, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1257 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers taper off as a cold front exits east, except lingering
in the mountains. Mainly dry conditions are expected through
the weekend and into next week amid a few weak disturbances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1238 PM Friday...

Lingering low level moisture and very cold air aloft will allow
for flurries or freezing drizzle along the eastern mountains
through this evening. A broad surface high pressure builds
across the central plains, extending east across the OH Valley
and WV by Saturday morning. This feature will provide dry
weather with skies clearing by Saturday afternoon.

Tonight's temperatures will drop few degrees below freezing due to
cold air in place aloft as models showing H850 minus 10C contour
south of the area, and good radiational cooling conditions expected
tonight. Highs on Saturday will range from the low to mid 40s
lowlands, ranging into the low 30s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM Friday...

Mainly dry on Sunday, however, a disturbance moving across the
south may produce some light snow across extreme southern zones
early Sunday, transitioning to light rain as day progresses.
Any impacts from snow should be minimal. Otherwise, Sunday
should be a relatively mild day, with highs generally in the 50s
across the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1120 AM Friday...

Mainly dry weather to start the long term. A low pressure system
will move east across the Great lakes region on Tuesday. This
may yield some light rain and snow showers, mainly across
northern mountain zones. Another quick moving system is possible
late in the extended, with light precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Friday...

The cold front exited east of the mountains this morning,
allowing some lingering moisture in the form of light rain or
drizzle behind it. Sub freezing temperatures aloft to minus 10C
will allow any lingering precipitation to transition into light
snow or freezing drizzle. These conditions, along with
persistent low stratus, will keep MVFR/IFR conditions through
most part of tonight.

Conditions will improve as a surface high pressure takes control Saturday
afternoon as the skies begin to clear some into Saturday night.

Gusty winds up to 20 knots will gradually subside this
afternoon and evening. Winds become light from the west
northwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of VIS changes due to snow may vary
from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ