Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS Charleston, WV

314 
WGUS71 KRLX 192227
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
627 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

VAC027-WVC047-192237-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FF.W.0097.000000T0000Z-220819T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-McDowell WV-
627 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
EAST CENTRAL BUCHANAN AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3730 8201 3738 8187 3725 8175 3718 8196

$$

JZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbance crosses tonight and Saturday, followed by
another one thru Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thundershowers will
continue to develop along the mountain ridges this afternoon on
weak low level convergence. These will initially be slow movers
before a few of these try drift into the lowlands toward
evening. I left a low POP in overnight as there will be a weak
s/w trof crossing which may spark a shower or two. Otherwise
some mid deck will drift across the mountains with river valley
fog setting up once again across the area. Low temperatures
should be similar to the past few evenings, perhaps a few
degrees warmer in the mountains.

Weak PVA will serve as the primary focus for showers and
thundershowers Saturday, maximized by daytime heating. In
addition, light southeast flow will aid in afternoon mountain
activity. High temperatures will top out a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 217 PM Friday...

Models show a strong upper-level low pressure system tracking east
into the Great Lakes region Saturday night, becoming an open
but sharp trough with axis extending to our west by Sunday, as
it moves southeast into the OH Valley. Weak ripples of vorticity
will move over the area to provide some upper-level forcing
during this time. Meanwhile, deep low-level south southwest flow
will bring enough moisture, bringing PWATs to 1.5 inches, and
theta-e values up to 338K needed to allow for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop under weak upper level
forcing. Therefore, expect some convection during the afternoon
and evenings across the lowlands, with additional showers/storms
possible along the eastern mountains Saturday night into Sunday.

By Sunday and Sunday night, the upper trough axis remains to our
west, but stronger vorticity maxima move over the area increasing
chances for stronger convection. At this time, a cold front approaches
from the northwest, but stalls and lift quickly north as a warm
front instead of affecting the area directly. Any storm at this point
will be sub-severe, although SPC painted the western half of our
CWA under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
night. Will keep monitoring the latest guidance in case severe
risk increases.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 217 PM Friday...

Good chances for showers and storms to continue Monday and
Monday night as the axis of the aforementioned upper trough
crosses east with additional pieces of energy, and a new cold
front pushes southeast Monday night. Depending of the antecedent
precipitation, soils will be vulnerable to reach saturation in
a shorter period of time. Will have to monitor conditions closely
ahead of possible water issues.

Guidance shows surface high pressure building across the OH Valley
into WV from late Tuesday through the end of the week, providing
drier weather conditions.

Near normal temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday with abundant
cloudiness and scattered showers. Then, a slight warm up is expected
Wednesday through the end of the week under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

Isolated to widely scattered SHRA with perhaps a rumble of
thunder will dot the mountain ridges through the remainder of
the afternoon. Kept a VCTS for BKW and VCSH at EKN this
afternoon. A few of these may try to sneak into the lowlands
toward evening, but confidence too low to make any mention at
CRW or CKB.

Some mid deck will cross the mountains tonight, perhaps delaying
river valley fog at EKN a few hours from previous nights.
Otherwise, IFR or worse fog will affect the terminals, save for
BKW.

Any fog will quickly dissipate after 12Z for VFR conditions for
the remainder of the TAF period. A few SHRA with perhaps some
thunder will be noted across the area from late morning onward.
Elected to keep the TAFs clean through 18Z with this issuance
though.

Surface flow will be light and generally out of the south or
southeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing and intensity of fog may vary
from forecast tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...30/ARJ
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
313 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-200715-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
313 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
258 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

VAZ004-WVZ033-191930-
Buchanan VA-McDowell WV-
258 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Buchanan and western McDowell Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Glen Burke, or 9 miles east of Grundy, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
War, Bradshaw, Iaeger, Avondale, Jolo and Oakwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 8198 3722 8204 3752 8183 3732 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 227DEG 17KT 3726 8193

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

11