Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Charleston, WV

673 
WGUS71 KRLX 162247
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
647 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

WVC019-162257-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-220817T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fayette WV-
647 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended and flood waters have receded. Flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3812 8112 3810 8107 3802 8106 3802 8113
      3802 8123 3805 8124 3809 8118 3811 8116

$$

FMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
253 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening. An
upper level disturbance lingers, bringing afternoon showers and
storms through Friday, particuarly in and near the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...

A weak upper level low is currently rotating overhead and drifting
west, carrying some convection at the eastern side of the low. Radar
and satellite imagery confirm this rotation. Expect scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving slowly north and west
through this evening. Convection should diminish in intensity and
coverage later this evening. However, the slow moving fashion of
storms could produce localized water issues. Shower activity should
diminish later tonight, but to return again Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

It will take some time for this upper low to exit the area.
Therefore, expect plenty of cloudiness mainly across central and
western sections. This will keep at least MVFR ceilings going
overnight at most terminals. IFR/LIFR dense fog is also expected
along the river valleys overnight into the early morning hours
Wednesday. Any fog or low stratus will slowly improve to VFR by mid
morning.

Temperatures will be near normal tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...

An upper level low will be positioned across the northeastern
CONUS on Wednesday morning. Upper flow becomes less stagnant
late Wednesday into Thursday, with the low moving northeastward
progressively faster as time goes on. Pieces of upper energy
will continue to pinwheel into the area around the broader
circulation, providing for continued shower/storm chances during
the period. Activity will mainly be diurnally driven, with the
best rain chances being in/near the mountains. Rain chances will
be highest on Wednesday, slightly decreasing on
Thursday/Friday. Kept PoPs generally at SLT/CHC. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly below normal, with a
gradual warmup to near seasonable or slightly above values by
the end of the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...

Another upper low will approach the region this weekend
following the departure of the current disturbance. The upper
low is progged to be positioned across the central Midwest on
Saturday morning, and will slowly meander eastward towards the
region throughout the weekend, providing for increased
shower/storm chances for the second half of the weekend into the
start of the new work week. Given the uncertainty of
position/timing this far out, did back PoPs down a bit from
guidance. High temperatures for the period look to generally be
seasonable or slightly below.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 133 PM Tuesday...

IFR low status ceilings will lift to MVFR across the lowlands
this afternoon. An upper level weak low pressure system,
northeast of the area, is providing little forcing for
convection. Radar shows showers developing along the central and
northern mountains. Expect this weak convection to continue
across the western slopes, and perhaps produce a storm or two
through this evening, as the convection rotates around the upper
low, reaching the northwest sections of the area.

These showers and storms will move very slowly north and west
allowing for some rainfall accumulations and longer than brief
periods of IFR along the heavy downpours. VCTS will be possible
at CKB and EKN, and BKW if storms manage to develop.

Winds at the surface and aloft will be relatively light out of the
east under 10 kt, becoming light southeast or calm overnight. These
winds, together with mostly clear skies, will allow for dense fog
development along the river valleys and areas that still saturated
from previous rains. IFR/LIFR dense river valley will likely last
through 13-14Z at some sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR may vary from
forecast. Showers and thunderstorms may vary this afternoon and
evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR in thunderstorms on Wednesday possible. IFR fog
possible Thursday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record rainfall of 3.54 inches was set at Charleston, West
Virginia yesterday. This breaks the old record of 1.66 inches
set in 1950.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...ARJ

CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
510 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-170915-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
510 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Patchy dense fog will improve shortly after sunrise. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop today. Stronger storms may
produce locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
443 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

WVZ517-518-162130-
Southeast Fayette WV-Northwest Fayette WV-
443 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...A cluster of showers with heavy rain will impact portions of
western and central Fayette County through 530 PM EDT...

At 440 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fayetteville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rainfall of up to an inch per hour.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rainfall could cause ponding of water on roads and
         localized minor flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Babcock State Park, Oak Hill, Mount Hope, Ansted,
Hawks Nest State Park, New River Gorge National park, Powellton and
Thurmond.

This includes the following highways...
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 57 and 64.
 Route 19 between mile markers 7 and 24.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 8137 3817 8114 3804 8089 3792 8105
      3791 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 305DEG 10KT 3800 8108

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
458 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

WVZ009-010-019-162130-
Ritchie WV-Wood WV-Pleasants WV-
458 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Pleasants, northwestern Ritchie and east central Wood Counties
through 530 PM EDT...

At 455 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North Bend State Park, or 9 miles west of Harrisville, moving west-
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and very heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Localized very heavy rainfall could lead
         to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding issues.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisville, St. Marys, Belmont, North Bend State Park, Ellenboro,
Cairo, Schultz, Pike, Willow Island, Nutter Farm and Petroleum.

This includes Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 15 and
38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

&&

LAT...LON 3926 8102 3913 8113 3923 8144 3936 8133
      3939 8127 3939 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 120DEG 9KT 3926 8122

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FMK