Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Charleston, WV

692 
WGUS71 KRLX 062324
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
724 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

WVC075-101-062334-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FF.W.0077.000000T0000Z-220806T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pocahontas WV-Webster WV-
724 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
WESTERN POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT Sunday for 
portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia 
and West Virginia.

LAT...LON 3832 8052 3842 8039 3836 8028 3835 8026
      3822 8036 3823 8036 3824 8038 3825 8040
      3827 8043 3830 8047

$$

JZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
257 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms through Wednesday, more likely in the afternoon
and evening hours. Flash flooding remains possible into next
week. Cold front arrives mid week, then drier late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM Saturday...

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are underway across the
Central Appalachians at the time of writing. Severely
compromised flash flood guidance from previous rainfall will
play a pivotal role in radar operations as storms travel into
areas facing wet antecedent soil conditions. Precipitable Water
values extending to near 2 inches and reasonable instability
will favor at the very least pulse convection into the
evening. Coupled with the slow propagation of these showers and
storms today, in response to weak steering flow aloft, locally
heavy rainfall rates on the upwards of 1-2" per hour could
result in quick responses of localized flash flooding.

Shortwave enhancement that aided in convection the past several
days will weaken overnight and slide to the east, which should
allow for showers and storms to dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating. River valley fog will then ensue for areas that
decouple overnight, but a weak low level jet may preclude this
from occurring for areas west of the Charleston metro.

The next round of episodic showers and storms then fires up
again for the end of the weekend. Convection becomes more
concentrated along the spine of the Appalachians and eastward on
Sunday. However, the environment will remain primed for pulse
convection west of the mountains, maintaining the potential for
flash flooding given our wet soils. The Flood Watch in place
for the forecast area will remain in effect until late Sunday
night as it currently stands.

Temperatures may tumble within stronger cold pools this
afternoon as storms pass overhead, but generally highs today
will reach the low to mid 80s in the lowlands and low 70s along
the higher terrain. A slight warm up is on tap for Sunday,
pending convection trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

Shower and thunderstorm activity should diminish for Sunday night
following the loss of daytime heating. Little change is expected to
occur in the weather pattern at the beginning of the work week,
resulting continued chances for mainly diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms on Monday, followed by diminished coverage
overnight. A shortwave tracking across the northern US will then
drag a cold front towards the area from the northwest, with
showers and storms expected to spread across the area on Tuesday
as moisture increases ahead of the front.

While the potential for severe storms looks to be rather low through
the short term period, excessive rainfall is likely to remain a
concern. The majority of the area has been included within a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Monday due to the possibility
of locally heavy rainfall over already wet ground.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be around normal during the
short term period, with highs in the mid to upper 80s in the
lowlands, and 70s to low 80s in the mountains. Lows are expected to
be in the upper 60s to low 70s in the lowlands, with 60s along the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

A cold front is expected to progress through the area from
Wednesday into Thursday, with chances of showers and
thunderstorms continuing ahead of and along the front.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough deepens into the eastern US,
then slowly begins to lift to the northeast late in the week.
Surface high pressure building into the area behind the cold
front is expected to bring drier conditions for the end of the
work week and into the first part of the weekend.

Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal throughout
the long term period. The potential for flooding due to
excessive rainfall may remain a concern through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms are underway this afternoon across the
area as a weak disturbance remains settled overhead. On and off
flight restrictions will be possible at all terminals this
afternoon into the early evening, yielding brief vsbys
reductions and uptick in winds. Opted for tempo groups to cover
these brief interruptions to flight conditions.

Activity begins to wane after sunset, but a few areas could see
lingering showers and storms persist into the overnight hours.
Partially clearing skies may warrant areas of valley fog heading
into early Sunday morning, looking to mostly impact EKN, CRW,
and perhaps a terminal that receives a decent burst of rainfall
today. However, a weak LLJ may help preclude any fog development
anywhere else.

Precipitation coverage shifts south and eastward on Sunday,
which would allow a reprieve in some spots of the area. Rolled
with VFR through the end of the current TAF period, but VCTS may
be needed along our eastern sites heading into Sunday afternoon.

Outside of strong gusts from thunderstorms, winds will be
primarily breezy around 5-10kts out of the southwest through the
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of convection into this
evening, and then fog overnight tonight, may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record rainfall of 2.22 inches was set at Charleston, West
Virginia yesterday. This breaks the old record of 1.75 inches
set in 1916.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEK/GW
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MEK

CLIMATE...GW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
446 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

KYZ102-103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>028-033-034-039-040-
515>526-070900-
Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-
Putnam-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-McDowell-Wyoming-
Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
446 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and the mountains and central and
southern lowlands of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

While the Flood Watch goes through Sunday, showers and thunderstorms
could still bring heavy downpours and localized flooding during the
early to middle part of next week, until a cold front finally
crosses.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-016>020-029>032-070900-
Greenup-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-
Gallia-Lawrence OH-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-
446 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and the northern and western lowlands of
West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

While the flash flood threat may start to diminish on Sunday,
showers and thunderstorms could still bring heavy downpours and
localized flooding during the early to middle part of next week,
until a cold front finally crosses.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

TRM / GW