Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain near the area through Wednesday,
with another front moving through on Friday. Rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will provide for a threat of flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

Have made a few adjustments to PoPs for tonight, based on the
current location of precipitation. Otherwise, no significant
changes are needed at this time.

As of 545 PM Tuesday...

Made some updates PoPs/QPF this evening to reflect a line of
showers attempting to develop in some partial clearing extending
from Cincinnati to Athens. Latest mesoscale guidance suggests
this area of activity becoming rooted to mass convergence near a
strengthening H850 jet overnight and translating back to the
south roughly in line with a nebulous stationary boundary.
Should also see generation of some additional showers and
perhaps some thunderstorms in the aforementioned mass
convergence a little after midnight tonight south of the
boundary. While instability will be rather limited, deep warm
cloud depths with very efficient rainfall production and a high
potential for west to east training will yield continuing flash
flood and flood concerns late overnight and into the day
Wednesday. While confidence is high that significant training
precipitation will occur through the next 24-36 hours, it is
difficult to place it at this time. While a significant band of
rain on its own will likely do some damage where it occurs, if
it happens to occur where soils have already been compromised,
then significant damage will be possible.

As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Highest QPF thus far has been along a narrow axis in the Tug
River Valley where 2 to 3 inches of rain has fallen. This has
resulted in flash flooding across western Wyoming and southern
Mingo counties. This is a bit south of where models were keying
in on early this morning as the surface boundary sagged a bit
south.

We may see a lull early this evening before the low level jet
ramps back up with another mid level impulse arriving from the
west. With the mean flow nearly parallel to the frontal
boundary, expect rounds of training of showers and storms. This
axis may lie across southern areas initially, before lifting
north late tonight with the front. With high PWATS and the
potential for training, another 2 to 3 inches of rain is
possible in the vicinity of the front which is difficult to
pinpoint precisely beyond 6-12 hours.

Showers with embedded thunder will continue Wednesday morning in
the vicinity of the front, which again, is difficult to pin down
exact location. Best thinking is just north of I64 corridor, but
confidence is low. We should see another lull later in the afternoon
as associated disturbance moves east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

A frontal boundary will remain near the region, though it will
waver north and south as waves of low pressure move east across
the area. providing showers and thunderstorms at times. With
precipitable water values between 1.5 to around 2 inches,
showers and storms with heavy rain will remain possible and
flash flooding is a concern. Models continue to have some
disagreements on placement and timing of the slugs of heavier
precip, but confidence in them happening, and the potential for
further hydro issues, remains high. Thus the Flood Watch for
potential flash flooding was put out through Friday morning.
Beyond then, there could still be some potential for heavy rain
through the day on Friday, but there are signals in the model
data that a front will finally begin to push further south
through the area, which may help make things more progressive
and ultimately clear the precip to the south toward or just
beyond the end of this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

There is some increasing confidence that the frontal boundary
will push far enough south of the CWA to clear precip from the
area Fri night through Sat night. However, the boundary may
linger nearby, so we'll maintain chance POPs in the southern CWA
for parts of this time. Dewpoints may drop into the 60s during
this time - not exactly comfortable, but definitely feeling less
oppressive. As the high pressure area to the north slides off
toward the East Coast early next week, we'll have POPs spread
back northward as SW'ly return flow brings back a bit more
moisture to the area. Models are in general agreement on the
timing of the next wave for sometime Monday or Monday night, so
stuck with NBM's likely POPs across the area, but still need to
get better agreement on the details.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

Rain showers continue, mainly for BKW, and in the vicinity of
HTS and CRW at the beginning of the TAF period. Some heavy rain
may lead to brief periods of IFR, and possibly LIFR. Meanwhile,
low stratus and fog across has resulted in MVFR or worse
at PKB/CKB/EKN. Showers are expected to increase in coverage
towards morning, with sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities then
expected at most sites through most of the TAF period as rain
and thunderstorms move through during the day.

Winds will be calm to light overnight, then increase to around
6-12KTs out of the south to southwest during the day. A few
gusts will also be possible in the afternoon. Winds then become
light beyond 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration/coverage of rain showers tonight
may vary. Extent/intensity of sub-VFR fog and low stratus may
also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        WED 07/27/22
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR in rounds of showers and thunderstorms, and possible
overnight/early morning fog and stratus, throughout the
remainder of work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>008-013>018-
     024>030-033-034-039-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ083-085>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...30/FK
NEAR TERM...30/JP/JLB
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JLB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
914 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-085>087-WVZ005>008-013>018-026>030-039-515>526-
271315-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Jackson OH-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Upshur-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
914 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is also a marginal risk that thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening could produce damaging wind gusts and possibly large
hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-WVZ009>011-019-020-031-032-040-271315-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Vinton-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Harrison-Taylor-Barbour-
914 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight chance that showers and thunderstorms could cause
flash flooding today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A front is expected to linger over the region for much of the work
week. With rounds of showers and thunderstorms, the chances for
flash flooding increases each day. A flash flood watch may be
needed should confidence increase.

There is also a marginal risk that thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon and evening could produce damaging wind gusts and
possibly large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033-034-271315-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-McDowell-Wyoming-
914 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is a marginal chance that thunderstorms could produce damaging
winds this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is also a marginal risk that thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon and evening could produce damaging wind gusts and
possibly large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1127 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022

WVZ015-517-518-520-270515-
Southeast Nicholas-Kanawha-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Fayette-
1127 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...Steams and Creeks Running High...

Multiple rounds of rainfall have fallen in a band from eastern
Kanawha County across Fayette County and into extreme southern
Nicholas county. Some areas have received 2 to 3 inches today. This
will cause streams to run high with water problems possible in low
lying areas and areas of poor drainage.

LAT...LON 3808 8071 3810 8088 3808 8089 3806 8087
      3805 8083 3806 8080 3804 8083 3802 8080
      3799 8078 3799 8079 3809 8153 3811 8152
      3814 8157 3823 8152 3814 8091 3812 8090
      3814 8088 3811 8087 3813 8084 3810 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 240DEG 49KT 3812 8126

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1208 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GILBERT CREEK           37.58N 81.89W
07/26/2022                   MINGO              WV   911 CALL CENTER

            MINGO COUNTY 911 CENTER HAD SEVERAL REPORTS
            OF ROADS WASHED OUT IN THE GILBERT CREEK
            COMMUNITY FROM THE HEAVY RAINS. SOME
            RESIDENTS ARE NOT ABLE TO GET OUT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
121 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

WVZ025-026-270615-
Boone-Logan-
121 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...Steams and Creeks Running High...

Multiple rounds of rainfall have fallen in a band across portions of
Logan County into southern Boone County. Some areas have received 1
to 1.5 inches in the last couple of hours. This will cause creeks
and streams to run high with water problems possible in low lying
areas and areas of poor drainage.

LAT...LON 3797 8178 3785 8166 3785 8210 3794 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 240DEG 49KT 3789 8191

25