Flash Flood Warning 107, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
941 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms begin the work week along an advancing cold
front. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected for the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 PM Sunday...

Increased and shifted the PoPs to reflect cluster of
thunderstorms to our north. Expecting them to hang around for
another hour or two as they are showing signs of deteriorating.
Decreased PoPs in the SW corner of the region as there is no
thunderstorm formation present in the area. Watching a cluster
that is just west of Dickenson County, VA.

As of 210 PM Sunday...

Convection has little to no trouble blossoming this afternoon
and will continue to be the case going into this evening. The
atmosphere over the Central Appalachians has gradually
destabilized today with ample sunshine, eating away at any
capping inversion that transpired this morning. Looking
upstream, an eastward propagating upper trough and coincident
surface cold front are crossing through the Ohio Valley, denoted
with a line of quickly developing thunderstorms. Additional
support from shortwaves aloft will yield further development out
ahead of the front and will be the primary concentration of
strong to severe storms for the late afternoon and evening.

Decently strong westerlies aloft will send this line of storms
into the western extent of the forecast area a few hours after
this discussion is published. Simulated reflectivity then
suggests merging precip coverage with diurnally driven activity
along the mountains that will then engulf much of the Central
Appalachians heading into this evening. Jet enhancement will
aid in some storms to reach strong to potentially severe levels,
posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Cloud tops extending
higher up into the atmosphere may also tap into cold
temperatures aloft that could support instances of hail in the
strongest of storms today.

As the trough and cold front surge into the area overnight, the
potential for showers and storms will be sustained. A gradual
decrease in precip coverage takes shape for the start of the
work week as the frontal boundary completes its passage. The
northern fringes of the forecast area could see the best
potential for showers and storms Monday morning, most likely an
extension of prolonged convection from overnight, but then
finally trailing off at the near/short term forecast break
point.

Temperatures today will struggle to reach their anticipated
highs in the Middle Ohio Valley in response to the inundation of
afternoon cumulus and oncoming convection. Slightly cooler
weather remains in place on Monday in the wake of the frontal
passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

Monday night the upper level trough will be weakening while tracking
eastward over New York. Widespread showers taper from west to east
by Tuesday morning as low pressure system weakens. A few showers
will be possible Tuesday afternoon as mid level moisture remains and
weak shortwave moves toward the mountains out of Ohio. A surface
ridge builds from the west Tuesday night which will allow patchy
valley fog to develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

A broad upper level trough pattern remains overhead through the
end of the week keeping chances of afternoon and evening showers
in the forecast. Afternoon temperatures will trend warmer
through the end of the weak as a ridge builds from the
southwest. There is uncertainty on how much of a hold the ridge
will take heading into the weekend. For now, have continued to
allow the broad brushed mountain showers through the end of the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 850 PM Sunday...

Scattered clouds and TCU across the region with a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms in the northern part of our forecast
region. Expecting these to make contact with CKB around 0100Z.
Monitoring the formation of these thunderstorms as models are
indicating there will be scattered thunderstorms this evening
across the region. Timing and location is the main disagreement
for the models. EKN is currently experiencing a round of showers
and there is a cluster of thunderstorms approaching from the
south. These will likely dissipate around 0400Z and usher in a
brief period of fog. Not expecting long lasting fog.
Visibilities will be in the IFR or LIFR range. Expecting this to
lift as a stratus deck moves in. Low stratus deck will form
tonight around 0800-0900Z and then start to lift off around
1700Z. SCT CU will set in afterwards for our afternoon hours.
Once again watching the potential for thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Timing and location will be the
discrepancy but conditions are favorable for scattered storms.

Brief IFR is possible with any thunderstorms. Generally light winds
outside of thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of thunderstorms may
vary. Timing, location, and height of stratus deck may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 08/22/22
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR in showers and storms Monday evening. IFR fog
possible Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KH/MEK
NEAR TERM...LTC/MEK
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...LTC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
858 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-230100-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
858 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavy downpours may lead to localized flooding issues particularly
if repetitive storms occur over a location.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional showers and storms, some with heavy downpours are
expected on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
905 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

WVZ011-020-030>032-040-220130-
Barbour WV-Doddridge WV-Harrison WV-Taylor WV-Lewis WV-Tyler WV-
905 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Doddridge, Taylor,
north central Lewis, east central Tyler, northwestern Barbour and
Harrison Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 904 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lumberport, or near Clarksburg, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksburg, Grafton, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Stonewood, Nutter Fort,
Salem, Lumberport, West Union, Anmoore, Enterprise, West Milford,
Lost Creek, Flemington, Valley Falls, Grangeville, Wolf Summit,
Meadland, Tygart Lake State Park and Lima.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 107 and 128.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 53 and 82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water in urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3951 8074 3947 8071 3947 8064 3944 8060
      3945 8058 3943 8058 3943 8054 3944 8051
      3946 8051 3947 8048 3943 8028 3939 8020
      3941 8011 3939 8009 3940 8003 3944 7996
      3943 7996 3910 8012 3915 8077 3953 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 247DEG 15KT 3936 8036

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
920 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

WVZ028-220145-
Braxton WV-
920 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Braxton
County through 945 PM EDT...

At 920 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gassaway, or over Sutton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sutton, Gassaway, Flatwoods, Heaters, Centralia and Falls Mills.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 55 and 73.
 Route 19 near mile marker 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

&&

LAT...LON 3865 8051 3861 8055 3859 8080 3871 8083
      3884 8054 3877 8047 3873 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 247DEG 15KT 3867 8076

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

11

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