Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
251 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered near Bermuda will extend westward across the
Southeast states through early Wednesday. A cold front will approach
from the northwest late Wednesday, then move slowly southeast
through North Carolina Wednesday night through Thursday night. A
secondary cold front will drop through the region late Friday. A
cooler and less humid air mass will build in from the north for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 251 PM Tuesday...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to depict ridging
across the southeast, with generally southwesterly flow aloft over
central NC. At the surface, light southwest flow around the western
ridge of the Bermuda high continues across central NC this
afternoon. As expected, the strongest convection has primarily kept
to the mountains so far today. However, isolated to widely scattered
showers and a few storms have developed across our area primarily
forced by a subtle moisture gradient along the Piedmont trough axis.
These cells have been short-lived in nature likely due to virtually
no shear or upper-forcing evident across central NC. For the rest of
this afternoon/early evening, isolated to scattered showers/storms
will be possible primarily across the western Piedmont eastward to
roughly along the US-1 corridor. These cells will likely continue to
be short-lived in nature but cannot rule out an isolated stronger
downburst within any taller storm. This is especially true across
the northern Piedmont where DCAPE will hover in the 900 to 1000 J/kg
range through this evening. Any remaining precipitation this evening
should diminish quickly with sunset. Otherwise, another warm and
muggy night is expected with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 251 PM Tuesday...

A broad upper-level trough centered across eastern Canada will begin
to dig southward into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Ahead of
the trough, a short-wave will extend down into central NC Wednesday
afternoon/evening.  Associated weak mid-level height falls and
transiting vorticity perturbations will provide better upper-level
support for higher coverage in afternoon showers/storms compared to
recent days.  High-res models continue to depict mountain convection
spilling eastward into western portions of our area early afternoon
supportive of likely POPs across our far northwest. Additional
convection will also focus along the Piedmont trough initially over
the Sandhills/Central Piedmont, and spread eastward through
Wednesday night. PWAT will be high again peaking near 2.0 inches,
supporting high CAPE ahead of the convection. However, models
continue to depict weak mid-level lapse rates and shear, which
should limit organization. Regardless, given some better upper-
support trickling in from the north, organized clusters may be
possible as the convection pushes east. Thus, isolated damaging wind
gusts could materialize within any stronger cells, but widespread
severe weather is not expected.  Lastly, given the high PWAT and
slower storm motion, isolated flash flooding may be possible in or
near urban areas tomorrow afternoon/evening (especially across the
Triad where the WPC currently maintains a marginal risk for flash
flooding (level 1 of 4)). Otherwise, daytime highs will once again
peak in the lower to mid 90s, with overnight lows remaining warm in
the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

Low pressure off the VA coast will drag a cold front across the area
on Thursday. Pre-frontal airmass characterized by PW's around 1.75
inches, surface dewpoints in the 70s, and MLCAPEs around 500-1000
J/KG, will still be present across the area on Thursday, and showers
and thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon hours with a
focus mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. Guidance
pops still lingering in the 60-80 percent range during this period
and the updated forecast will remain near these values. While the
presence of a clearly defined forcing mechanism should result in
organized thunderstorm development, the lack of deep layer shear
(only 10-15kts) and extensive cloud cover should temper the severe
threat a bit.

Friday will see a secondary boundary cross the area from the
northwest, this one ushering in lower dewpoints and a clear trend
toward dry weather. By Friday afternoon, most locations should see
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s, the only exception being
across the southern Coastal Plain where the boundary may stall and
serve as the focus for a few showers and thunderstorms. Surface
ridging over the Ohio Valley should strengthen Friday night into
Saturday, move eastward into the Mid Atlantic, and effectively push
the front into SC on Saturday resulting in drier weather for the
weekend. Temperatures will still manage to rise into the lower 80s
(north) to upper 80s (south) but it will be noticeably more
comfortable this weekend. Similarly, low temps will also fall below
climatological normals with readings in the upper 50s (north) to mid
60s (south).

Broad northwesterly flow aloft will persist into early next week,
with a series of weak perturbations potentially moving across the
mountains into NC Monday and Tuesday. Varying ensemble solutions
aloft with some solutions indicating an upper low over the Great
Lakes while others bring a deeper low through the Tennesse Valley.
Cluster analysis tends to discount the TN low solution with odds
tilted more in favor of continued northwesterly flow and an upper
low over eastern Canada. This would result in a return to typical
summer weather with daily shower/storm chances within a Piedmont
trough propagating off the mountains and into central NC. PoPs in
the 20-30 percent range are consistent with today's ensemble runs as
well as the latest NBM. Temps will increase a bit during this period
but still remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 106 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are mostly expected at all terminals throughout the
TAF period. Under the influence of the Bermuda high, precipitation
chances are limited this afternoon. However, ongoing convection over
the mountains may spill eastward near the Triad terminals between
~18Z to 00Z.  Confidence in this convection impacting KINT/KGSO is
low, however, especially given that latest high-res guidance has
trended drier compared to this morning's runs.  Further east,
isolated, diurnal showers or storms will be possible, but confidence
is too low to include any mention of precipitation at
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. Lastly, no stratus-induced sub-VFR ceilings are
expected overnight. Otherwise, light southwest winds (7 to 12 kts)
will diminish some overnight before picking back up a bit late
tomorrow morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions should continue through about midday
Wednesday, before shower/storm coverage increases impacting the
Triad first before spreading eastward through Wednesday night.
Showers and storm chances increase again on Thursday/Thursday night
as a cold front pushes through the area. Drier conditions are then
expected Friday through Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Luchetti

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
324 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-101000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
324 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
344 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

NCZ041-092015-
Wake NC-
344 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Wake County
through 415 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Raleigh, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary and William B Umstead State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 7879 3585 7877 3589 7866 3588 7855
      3583 7853 3577 7857 3575 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 264DEG 20KT 3584 7861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kren

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
358 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

NCZ021-022-092045-
Guilford NC-Forsyth NC-
358 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Forsyth
and northern Guilford Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 357 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Greensboro to near Kernersville. Movement
was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Kernersville, Summerfield,
Stokesdale, Lake Townsend Marina, Lake Townsend, Lake Jeanette Marina
and Lake Brandt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 7961 3605 7973 3599 7985 3602 8002
      3609 8021 3620 8008 3622 7992
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 263DEG 12KT 3614 7984 3611 8011

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kren

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
408 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

NCZ042-092045-
Johnston NC-
408 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Johnston County through 445 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clayton, or 10 miles north of Smithfield, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton and Flowers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 7833 3568 7830 3558 7833 3554 7852
      3559 7856 3567 7852 3568 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 248DEG 9KT 3566 7842

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Kren

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
414 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

NCZ040-041-092045-
Chatham NC-Wake NC-
414 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Wake
and east central Chatham Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 413 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pittsboro, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crosswinds Boating Center, Jordan Lake State Rec Area, Seaforth Boat
Dock, Crosswinds Campground, New Hill, Harris Lake Boat Launch,
Moncure, Shearon Harris Reservoir and Jordan Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 7888 3561 7891 3560 7901 3561 7907
      3562 7910 3562 7911 3563 7912 3562 7913
      3571 7914 3576 7893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 260DEG 11KT 3567 7909

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kren