Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
625 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and moist southwest flow will persist over the eastern
Carolinas today, ahead of a cold front that will move slowly
eastward across the region later today. A secondary cold front will
move through tonight. A mild and drier air mass will move in for
Friday through Saturday, with gusty conditions as a series of upper
level disturbances passes over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...

The risk of severe storms has greatly diminished and shifted into
the eastern Carolinas just through this morning, although a wet day
is still anticipated near and E of the Hwy 1 corridor. This will be
the last vestiges of the powerful storm system which brought very
active weather to the S and E CONUS over the last few days.

The latest surface analysis shows the cold front moving slowly E
just getting into the NC mountains, while the warm front has shifted
to our N into VA, albeit with a lingering cool stable pool just NW
of the forecast area, over SW VA. The large mid level low is
situated over the Midwest early this morning and features a
multitude of smaller shortwaves rotating about the mean cyclone.
This low will wobble and drift NNE toward far W Quebec through
tonight, with its elongated positively tilted trough easing eastward
through the mid-lower Miss Valley and Mid South/Gulf states through
tonight, culminating in a potent vorticity lobe tracking NE through
the central and eastern Carolinas around daybreak Fri. A stream of
anomalously high PW aoa 1.5" will persist over central/E NC until
this evening, with passage of the elevated frontal zone, noted well
at 850 mb-700 mb progs as the leading edge of drier air (also
evident on GOES 16 Band 10 WV imagery). But for much of the day, a
very moist column over our central and E sections will undergo
strengthening forcing for ascent as an upper level southwesterly jet
streak currently over MS accelerates NE, inducing strengthening
upper divergence over E NC today as the jet's right entrance region
shifts over our area. A band of higher MLCAPE now extends from off
the SE GA coast northward into SE NC, and while the hi-res model
depicted hodographs in this area are a bit more messy than they were
yesterday, they're still quite long and suggestive of discrete and
possibly strong multicell convection over our SE, especially through
this morning. Otherwise, numerous showers with a few embedded storms
will overspread our central and E sections (near/E of Hwy 1) this
morning and continue for much of the day, with the greatest coverage
along and E of I-95 where the large scale lift will be most
vigorous. Will have pops ramping up to likely to categorical early
this morning, continuing for much of the day, while areas to the NW
including the Triad will see lower coverage due to lower moisture
content through the column. The notably cooler air will stay bottled
up W of the mountains today, so still expect highs mostly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

The cold front (fairly modest in terms of cooler air) will finally
be propelled E through central NC this evening, with the 80-100 kt
mid level jet streak shifting E of the forecast area by late
tonight, pushing the higher PW offshore. While chance pops will be
maintained this evening in the far SE, we will have a gradual W to E
exit of precip out of the Coastal Plain overnight, although mid and
high clouds will take a bit longer to clear out, until the vorticity
lobe passes through toward daybreak. Lows from the low 40s W to
around 50 E. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 AM Thursday...

The deepest and thickest cloud cover will be exiting to the E of the
forecast area early Fri morning, however the continued perturbed
cyclonic flow through the region will bring bouts of clouds through
Fri, with a brief sprinkle or two not out of the question as deep
longwave troughing sets up over E NOAM. Winds through the low and
mid levels from the WSW through WNW will strengthen through the day,
with strong height falls over New England/E Canada and over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley today/tonight, the latter a
function of a strong shortwave diving into the mean trough. A lee
surface trough extending through the Piedmont should sharpen with
time, with increasing winds throughout a deepening mixed layer by
midday. Moisture within the upper reaches of this mixed depth will
result in a period of scattered to broken clouds, and while a little
virga is possible, nothing more than a inconsequential sprinkle or
two is expected given the drying air in the low levels. Thicknesses
will have fallen by Fri but will still be close to normal,
supporting highs from the mid 60s to around 70. Expect lows Fri
night in the 40s with mostly clear skies. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 209 AM Thursday...

A weakening upper low will move from the Great Lakes to the NJ coast
to start the weekend, with longwave troughing across much of the Mid
Atlantic during this period. Doesn't look to be an abundance of
moisture ahead of this trough as the deeper plume of elevated PW's
will be well offshore by Saturday morning, however the presence of
an elongated/fast moving shortwave trough within the flow could be
enough to produce a good amount of stratocu and/or a brief shower
near the NC/VA border. Any rainfall that occurs will be light. The
main story Saturday will likely be the breezy winds across the area
and cooler air is advected in from the west. Most deterministic
models as well as GEFS/EC ENS suggest deep mixing with winds in the
20-30mph area-wide. Will increase winds substantially from the NBM
during this period with strongest winds during peak afternoon mixing
between 15Z-21Z. Elevated winds should persist into the evening
hours before relaxing a bit closer to midnight. Temps Saturday will
range from the upper 50s in the NW Piedmont to the mid 60s across
the Coastal Plain. Lows Saturday night in the low to mid 30s.

Quiet weather Sunday with continued northwest flow aloft. Mostly
sunny skies and temps in the mid/upper 50s. With lighter winds
Sunday night, expect lows to bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Some moderation is expected Monday but dry weather will persist.

Tuesday/Wednesday will see the development of a large upper low over
the southern Plains and subsequent downstream
ridging/warming/gradually increasing cloud cover. At the same time,
most of the guidance is suggesting a weak surface ridge over the
eastern Great Lakes and a sharpening warm frontal boundary across
the Mid Atlantic. Weak isentropic ascent atop the boundary could
result in some light rain along the NC/VA border on Tuesday along
with a sharp N/S temperature gradient across the area with highs in
the low 50s (north) and lower 70s (south). The influence of the
ridge to the north may be felt into Wednesday as well with cool
northeast/easterly flow across the area. At some point warm
advection ahead of the approaching low will win out but that may not
come until later in the week along with another round of precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 625 AM Thursday...

Aviation conditions will be better in the NW than in the E today. A
stream of damp/humid air will persist over much of the central and
eastern Carolinas today, with blustery SW winds through the low and
mid levels, ahead of a cold front that will move slowly E through
central NC later today. INT/GSO will see small rain chances and
mostly VFR conditions, although periods of MVFR cigs are possible,
esp at GSO, until around 15z. Further E, at RDU/FAY/RWI, numerous
showers with isolated embedded storms are expected to streak along
and E of the Hwy 1 corridor, bringing a good chance of MVFR to IFR
cigs well into the afternoon, until around 21z at RDU and until
around 02z farther E at FAY/RWI. This will be followed by VFR cigs
through the rest of tonight, clearing at INT/GSO behind the cold
front. Surface winds will remain from the SW (except becoming W at
INT/GSO after 22z) around 8-12 kts today with gusts around 20 kts
possible through this afternoon. Winds aloft will remain stout at 25-
40 kts at around 2000 ft AGL at RDU/FAY/RWI into this evening,
before tapering down toward midnight.

Looking beyond 12z Fri, VFR conditions will dominate through Mon. A
period of VFR cigs and a few sprinkles are possible Fri. Blustery
and gusty winds are expected Sat. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073>076-083>086-250900-
Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-
Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
Hoke-
335 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong gusty winds are expected Saturday. Gusts as high as 30 to 35
mph are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ009>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-088-089-250900-
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
335 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong storms are possible over eastern sections of central
North Carolina today. A storm or two could become severe, mainly
this morning. The greatest threat will be from damaging straight line
winds around 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong gusty winds are expected Saturday. Gusts as high as 30 to 35
mph are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
317 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

NCZ042-078-088-089-240815-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Wayne NC-Cumberland NC-
317 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Wayne,
Sampson, southeastern Cumberland and southeastern Johnston Counties
through 415 AM EDT...

At 316 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ammon, or 13 miles north of Elizabethtown, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Clinton, Mount Olive, Roseboro, Garland, Newton Grove,
Salemburg, Turkey, Autryville and Seven Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 7839 3485 7850 3485 7876 3551 7830
      3527 7783 3518 7783 3516 7788 3515 7789
      3517 7793 3516 7797 3519 7802 3518 7807
      3519 7816 3509 7817 3503 7815 3487 7815
      3469 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 215DEG 46KT 3482 7855

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Leins

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
409 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

NCZ028-043-078-240915-
Edgecombe NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
409 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Wayne, Edgecombe and
Wilson Counties through 515 AM EDT...

At 408 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goldsboro, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Goldsboro, Tarboro, Wilson, Elm City, Fremont, Walnut
Creek, Princeville, Pinetops and Lucama.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 7735 3580 7747 3557 7782 3538 7780
      3518 7783 3515 7789 3533 7823 3535 7815
      3542 7816 3558 7807 3559 7809 3585 7787
      3584 7784 3613 7764 3609 7753 3605 7752
      3604 7753 3600 7741 3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 219DEG 47KT 3532 7804

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Leins

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
642 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

NCZ025-041-241145-
Durham NC-Wake NC-
642 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Wake and
southeastern Durham Counties through 745 AM EDT...

At 639 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Raleigh, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain will cause ponding of water on roadways and
         minor flooding in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Wake Forest, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, RDU International,
Apex, Holly Springs, Morrisville and Knightdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 7843 3594 7839 3593 7835 3591 7835
      3591 7834 3590 7833 3590 7831 3589 7830
      3557 7879 3569 7897 3581 7892 3608 7872
      3608 7869
TIME...MOT...LOC 1039Z 231DEG 38KT 3578 7872

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
713 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

NCZ042-077-241215-
Johnston NC-Harnett NC-
713 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Harnett and
central Johnston Counties through 815 AM EDT...

At 713 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Pope AFB, or 9 miles southwest of Lillington,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Lillington, Clayton, Dunn, Angier, Benson, Selma, Erwin,
Coats and Four Oaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 7905 3569 7839 3545 7823 3527 7873
      3526 7874 3526 7882 3525 7885 3524 7886
      3524 7887 3523 7888 3521 7897
TIME...MOT...LOC 1113Z 240DEG 29KT 3529 7893

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Leins