Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
358 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front and developing area of low pressure will retreat north
across NC and into Southside VA from late morning through early this
evening. A trailing cold front will move east across the Carolinas
tonight. The low pressure and a reinforcing cold front from the
north will then wobble from central VA southeast across eastern NC
and offshore through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 358 PM Friday...

...A Tornado Watch is in effect for all of central NC
through 10 pm...

Scattered strong to severe storms have developed along the warm
front, which is currently roughly paralleling Highway 64. These
storms should remain anchored along the warm front, which should
lift in southern VA between 22 to 23z.  Amidst moderate to strong
destablization(2000-3000 J/Kg), shear and helicity parameters will
be supportive of a threat for discrete supercells capable of
producing damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail. In fact, the
parameters suggest that this environment could support a significant
tornado(EF2+).  Meanwhile, a substantial mid-level dry pocket will
greatly limit convective initiation and destabilization as BL
dewpoints mix out into the mid/upper 50s.

The leading edge of the upper trough//closed low dynamics and
attendant surface front into the area NC will bring second round of
severe storms to all of central NC as it crosses west-east through
the area between 6 to 10 pm. Models have actually trended away from
pushing an organized line segment through central NC. Now they
suggest more in the way of convective clusters moving through the
area. Given continued strong shear(45-50 kts effective shear), these
storms will also pose a threat for damaging winds and hail. And
while the threat of a tornado will be lower than with the warm
front, an isolated tornado will be possible across all of central
NC.  The severe threat should exit the area ~10 pm, with some
lingering low end chance/ scattered shower activity overnight as the
upper low builds in.  Lows ranging from mid/upper 50s NW to mid 60s
SE.

-CBL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Upper low over the northern Mid-Atlantic region along with a
deepening trough down into the southern MS region will slowly shift
offshore Saturday night into Sunday morning. Meanwhile a large upper
level ridge will slowly be moving east from the Midwest into the OH
and TN valley.

At the surface, and associated low pressure system centered over the
DELMARVA peninsula with a cold front extending south across central
NC and the Southeast. A the cold front moves east across the region
on Saturday expect additional showers in the north in the morning,
spreading south and east through the afternoon and evening. The
severe threat is minimal with SPC’s outlook includes only general
thunderstorms for Saturday. Precipitation chances will diminish late
Saturday night/early Sunday morning as the cold front moves across
the region. Highs on Saturday will be  in the low 70s near the VA
border and mid/upper 70s south. CAA behind the cold front will bring
a welcomed northerly flow and lows in the upper 40s north and low
50s southeast.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

Upper low will continue to slowly shift offshore Sunday and the
upper ridge will build over the MS valley. As the low sits just off
the coast into early next week, it will shift west and then slowly
south off the coast of FL/GA by mid week before moving back inland
by the end of the week. At the surface, Central NC will be
influenced by high pressure from the north. As the low offshore
lingers off the coast and retreats back west by the end of the week
the next chance of showers and storms will be Thursday and Friday.

Sunday will be the coolest day of the forecast with highs in the mid
50s NE to mid 60s in the SW, which is 15 to 20 degrees below
average. Lows Sun night will be in the mid/upper 40s. For the rest
of the week, expect temperatures to slowly warm up with highs in the
70s and lows in the 50s. Thursday night lows will be in the 60s with
highs Friday in the upper 70s and low 80s.  &&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Friday...

Scattered strong to severe storms have and will continue to develop
along a warm front that will lift into southern VA around 22z. A
separate band/area of showers and storms will then cross west to
east through the area between 22Z-03Z Sat. Strong damaging wind
gusts, hail, and even isolated tornadoes will all be possible with
the stronger storms/updraft. Storms will be exit the eastern
counties between 03 to 05z, with mostly dry conditions through
Saturday morning. While confidence is low, cannot rule out some
patchy sub-VFR ceilings towards daybreak.

Ceilings could lower to MVFR as showers and thunderstorms are
expected to re-develop across central NC Saturday afternoon, and
will linger into the evening and early overnight hours. The low-
topped convection could produce some small hail, during the
afternoon.

Outlook: Moist nnely flow and widespread IFR-MVFR ceilings are
possible Sat night-Sun. Occasional MVFR ceilings may then linger
over ern NC, including into the RWI and FAY vicinity, through early
to mid next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
 AVIATION...CBL/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-071845-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
232 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 187 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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