Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through central NC this evening and
into tonight, stalling out over the SE US through mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 PM Monday...

...Wind Advisory canceled.

Winds remained short of wind advisory criteria with a few gusts to
40 or so this afternoon. The front will be moving through in the
next few hours and winds have died off considerably with sunset. We
will monitor the front for any convection that could pull down winds
near 45 mph this evening and issue any statements as needed.

Previous discussion issued at 300 PM Monday...

Expect increasing clouds from the north-northwest this evening. A
line of pre-frontal showers should move into the Triad within the
next few hours, progressing east-southeast through the area this
evening into tonight. The strong, gusty southwesterly winds will
continue into the evening, with gusts dropping a bit with sunset
where showers are not also occurring. Cannot rule out isolated gusts
in excess of 40 kts, especially along and north of I-85 through 10
PM. The showers could produce similarly strong gusts, even in the
absence of thunder. Instability is limited (100 J/Kg or less) and
thus the possibility of thunder is low, but not completely ruled
out. The winds should become more westerly but remain breezy/gusty
as the showers progress through the area. In the wake of the cold
front, winds will become northwesterly, increasing in its immediate
wake, with gusts in the teens likely tonight. The front should be
through the area by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will drop quickly
behind the front as high pressure starts to build in, although the
continued breezy conditions and lingering cloud cover, albeit
decreasing in the NW, will limit radiational cooling. Lows in the
mid 40s to mid 50s NW to SE expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Monday...

While a rogue shower cannot be completely ruled out across Sampson
County Tuesday morning, tonight's cold front should have settled far
enough to the south to allow for dry weather during the daytime
hours. However, with the front settling just south of the region,
skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy across the southeast, with
a bit more sun possible along the Virginia border extending west
into the Triad. After near-record high temperatures today, tonight's
cold front will bring high temperatures closer to normal on Tuesday,
with values mostly in the low to mid 60s.

An upper level shortwave will move from the southern Plains to the
Ohio River Valley Tuesday night. This will help to develop a wave of
low pressure across the stationary boundary to the south and spread
rain from the Gulf Coast into the mid-Atlantic states. Rain should
reach the Triad by midnight, then continue to expand southeast
overnight. The presence of the boundary to the south will allow for
a slightly larger range in low temperatures than normal - near the
Virginia border, lows will fall near 40, while the southern tier
counties should only fall into the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Monday...

The front that passed through tonight which will settle south of the
region tomorrow will not be in much of a hurry to leave the region.
Multiple waves will move along the front, the strongest of which may
be crossing central NC Wednesday morning. Inherited a slight chance
of thunderstorms across the south Wednesday, and decided to expand
that slightly farther north as well as extending it into Wednesday
night based on the potential for some elevated instability. Rain
will continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a chance for some
drier air to make it into northwestern counties Thursday while rain
continues across the southeast. Have continued with the trend of the
previous forecast to suppress the bulk of the rain south of the area
Thursday night, and 12Z models have slightly slowed down the arrival
of rain Friday into Friday night. However, Friday night will be a
widespread precipitation event with a strong low pressure system
moving across the mid-Atlantic and a cold front extending all the
way into the Gulf of Mexico. Bumped up pops to categorical Friday
night and have continued the slight chance of thunderstorms along
the front. Although surface instability will be minimal due to the
time of day of the frontal passage, it appears that there could be
at least some potential for elevated thunderstorms, and considering
the stronger winds aloft, there is the potential for some of those
winds to mix down to the surface. Showers are likely to persist into
Saturday afternoon, then dry weather is forecast Saturday night
through Monday.

Temperatures will be a tricky part of this forecast and will be on a
yo-yo. There will be a battle between an in-situ CAD event that
develops and where the front sets up Wednesday. Most models show a
20-25 degree difference in highs Wednesday, so while there is high
confidence in a wide gradient of temperatures occurring, how far
south the front sinks will be key to the forecast. Even Sampson
County could have a 15 degree gradient in highs on Wednesday. The
new forecast ranges from mid 40s in Roxboro and the Triad to lower
60s across the south and possibly 70 degrees in the southern tip of
Sampson County. With greater confidence that the boundary will sink
south of the region on Thursday, there is less of a gradient in
highs on Thursday, with temperatures in the 50s everywhere.
Southerly flow ahead of the cold front Friday will allow all
locations to rise into the 60s, then temperatures will start to fall
during the day on Saturday across the west with the cold front
moving through. A widespread freeze is expected Saturday night with
lows falling into the lower 20s in the west and into the upper 20s
across the east. After highs back around 50 on Sunday and lows
falling near the freezing mark again Sunday night, 60s will return
for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: Strong, gusty southwesterly winds will decrease
this evening and shift to the NW as a cold front passes. Brief MVFR
to VFR CIGS and VSBYS with showers will accompany the front.

Otherwise generally VFR (with some possible MVFR cigs) are expected
through tonight. VFR conditions should prevail on Tue, with north-
northwesterly winds at 10-15kt.

Looking ahead: Periods of rain and sub-VFR conditions are likely
Tuesday night through Thursday, perhaps lingering into Friday, as a
series of frontal waves tracks through central NC in a cold air
damming scenario.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...PWB/KC
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...PWB/KC

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