Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move northeast across the Carolinas
this afternoon and overspread both a lee surface trough over the
Foothills and a front that will become quasi-stationary from
Southside Virginia to northeastern NC through early Wednesday. That
front will then lift north across the Mid Atlantic ahead of low
pressure and a trailing cold front that will cross the region late
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Water vapor satellite showed upper-level ridging just off the East
Coast, and a weak disturbance moving NE into western SC around the
ridge. Surface observations showed a stalled front near the NC/VA
border. Surface dewpoints this afternoon were in the low to mid 60s.

Radar showed isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along
the Appalachian lee trough currently set up across the region.
Although shear is weak today, there is plenty of moisture,
instability and lift to support storm development through the
afternoon, especially with highs 10-15 degrees above normal. An
inverted-V sounding shows the main threat with storms will be
damaging wind gusts, although some could produce severe hail. The
disturbance to our southwest will enhance storm development as it
traverses across the region later today. The stalled front to our
north will lift north through tonight, and be another source for
storm development, especially with upper-level support as the
disturbance moves by. The area with the best shear and SRH is along
this boundary, so strongest storms may remain near or just north of
the VA border. The marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for the
northern half of central NC has not changed for this afternoon. A
sea-breeze front should develop another area of storms this
afternoon along the Coastal Plain. Flash flooding is not expected,
but may occur where storms train.

Most storms should diminish as we get into late evening, however the
upper-level wave and stalled front may generate additional showers
and storms near the VA border overnight. Lows tonight will be mild
in the mid to upper 60s, which is around 15 degrees above seasonal
normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Another Appalachian lee trough will develop Wednesday, with
continued moist, southwest flow across the region. A shortwave will
move across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the
afternoon, providing additional instability aloft. Diurnal heating,
combined with the lee trough and a cold front moving across the
region, will develop scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Shear and SRH remain low for
another day, therefore most storms will remain pulse-like away from
boundaries, and damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. SPC has
upgraded most of central NC (away from the Triad) to a Marginal Risk
for severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Above normal
highs are expected again, with temps in the mid to upper 80s. The
cold front will help lower lows for western areas Wednesday night,
with temps dipping into the upper 50s NW to mid-60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Thursday should be mostly dry as surface high pressure briefly
builds in from the north and relatively flat shortwave ridging moves
across the area, in response to an intense closed low over the
Central Plains. With E/NE low-level flow on the cooler/drier side of
the stalled front to our south, leaned toward the cooler NAM and
have forecast highs in the mid-70s to lower-80s (near normal). The
front will lift back north through the area as a warm front on
Thursday night, with increasing clouds and isolated to scattered
showers potentially moving in from the south and west, owing to a
weak upper disturbance.

The aforementioned closed low will continue to move east, reaching
the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday. This will turn the low-level
flow southerly once more and increase dew points back into the 60s,
with high temperatures ranging from the upper-70s to upper-80s. Thus
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will be more than sufficient for convective
development in the afternoon and evening. Owing to the approach of
the low, both the upper forcing and shear look much better than
tomorrow, as 500 mb flow will be up to 40-50 kts. Thus POPs are
likely across the entire region, and scattered strong to severe
storms are possible, with a squall line potentially moving through
in the late afternoon and evening.

Confidence decreases for this weekend as the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF
continue to diverge on how quickly the closed low and its associated
cold front will push east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
The GFS is faster and pushes the low offshore by Saturday night,
meaning cooler temperatures and just some scattered showers on
Saturday, turning dry by Sunday. The ECMWF (while a bit faster than
previous runs) still doesn't move the low offshore until Sunday,
allowing for another day of warmth, instability and possible storms
(especially east) on Saturday, with showers lingering into Sunday.
For now the forecast leans a bit toward the ECMWF. Regardless there
should be some precipitation around on Saturday, so have likely POPs
and a slight chance of thunder. The best chance of storms would be
in the east.

The threat of storms will come to an end on Sunday with cool, stable
N/NE flow and temperatures dropping below normal (highs in the 60s
to lower-70s). However, a few showers may linger in the Coastal
Plain, especially if the slower ECMWF verifies. Monday and Tuesday
will feature continued N/NE flow as the closed low sits and spins
offshore, blocked by a strong mid/upper ridge that will develop over
the MS Valley into the Northeast US. Thus it will be dry and cool
with highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Isolated SHRA/TSRA are developing across the western half of central
NC, and will continue to develop this afternoon and evening, with
further development from west to east through the period. Additional
storms are possible near the NC/VA border tonight as another
disturbance moves across the region. Main threats with storms today
are gusty and erratic wind gusts, although small hail is possible.
Strengthening flow to around 35 kts at 2000 ft AGL tonight may
result in marginal low level wind shear conditions, while areas that
receive rain will be prone to the development of patches of stratus
and fog Wed morning.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms will develop with diurnal
heating Wed along a lee trough and ahead of a surface cold front
that will cross the region late Wed through Wed night. Patches of
MVFR ceilings may result amidst nely flow behind the front Thu
morning. Showers and storms will become diurnally-maximized across
the region Fri through Sat, as a vigorous mid/upper-level low
approaches the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...JJT
SHORT TERM...JJT
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...MWS/JJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
451 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078-041200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
451 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few thunderstorms capable of strong to locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon
and again Friday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089-041200-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
451 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms capable of strong to locally damaging wind
gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon
and again Friday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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