Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
420 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent high pressure centered near Bermuda will extend into the
Southeast US through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Saturday...

Scattered showers and a few storms have developed in the far
northern and western Piedmont this afternoon, which also happens to
be where the highest MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg is evident on SPC
mesoanalysis. Farther SE from the southern Piedmont into the
Triangle and northern Coastal Plain, low stratus stuck around
for much of the morning into midday, which helped keep the
environment more stable. Thus only have slight chance POPs there
for the rest of the afternoon into the evening. The sea breeze is
beginning to push into our Coastal Plain counties, which is where
there is another local maximum of ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. So this may
provide another focus for convective development across the
Sandhills and central/southern Coastal Plain, but the CAMS are not
overly impressed with this as the deepest moisture (PW values of
1.75-2") is to the west of there. Thus chances for showers and
storms this afternoon are highest over the northern and western
Piedmont, but coverage is still not expected to be widespread given
the lack of any large-scale forcing mechanism. There is also no
organized severe weather threat given the lack of shear, weak mid-
level lapse rates, and much lower DCAPE today. Still, an isolated
damaging wind gust can't be ruled out with the strongest storms.

Areas of low stratus and fog again are possible tonight with the
moist southerly low-level flow. However, given this has not really
materialized the last couple mornings, confidence in it occurring is
low. Low temperatures were largely a persistence forecast from
previous nights, generally lower-to-mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Saturday...

Tomorrow is largely a persistence forecast, as we will once again be
under the influence of a Piedmont trough and Bermuda high pressure
system at the surface, with any synoptic fronts or large-scale
forcing mechanisms staying well to our NW. Thus our precipitation
chances will continue to depend on diurnal heating mechanisms and
mesoscale boundaries. The best potential for afternoon convection
looks to once again be over the NW Piedmont where the deepest
moisture will be, and across the Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain where convergence along the sea breeze could provide a focus
for a few showers and storms. Based on the latest CAMS, coverage
looks even less impressive than it does today, so only have low
chance POPs in the two favored regions with just slight in between.
Slight chance POPs linger into the evening in the NW Piedmont as the
sea breeze may collide with any lingering outflow boundaries from
earlier storms. Low-level thicknesses will be similar to today,
again supporting high temperatures in the upper-80s to lower-90s.
Lows Sunday night will again be in the lower-to-mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

The sub-tropical ridge will hold over the region Mon and Tue, with
broad and moist southerly flows across the Carolinas.  This will
result mostly unchanged daily conditions with a chance of morning
stratus, above normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered
afternoon convective initiation mostly tied the higher terrain and
seabreeze, though at least a slight chance is warranted everywhere.
Highs will be in the lower 90s, peaking mostly likely Tue as the low
to mid-level flow becomes a bit more westerly ahead of a slowly
approaching cold front.  Lows will be in the lower 70s.

The aforementioned cold front will slowly sink south into the area
by Thursday, perhaps a tad slower than projected in previous model
runs, as the upper ridge weakens and a trough develops down the
eastern US. The presence of that approaching front with its moisture
pooling and lowering of heights aloft should results in more
scattered to numerous showers and storms Wednesday and moreso
Thursday based on the latest guidance.  Have lowered POPs a little
on Wednesday and focused higher probabilities toward Thursday. While
models have trended a little slower with the arrival of the front,
they have certainly trended more progressive with the southward push
of the front heading into next weekend with stronger energy diving
into the backside of the upper trough and shifting the positively
tilted trough axis south and east of our area.  This results in a
drier and potentially warmer trend after a brief late week cool down
with more influence of the upper ridge over the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 AM Saturday...

Occasional MVFR ceilings may persist or redevelop through the late
morning through midday hours, as low level moisture is heated and
concentrated at the top of the developing well-mixed/boundary layer
in the several hours centered around 14-15Z. Otherwise, isolated to
widely scattered showers/storms are expected to focus along both an
outflow boundary that extended from near KPGV to KHFF to KCLT this
morning and also along a Piedmont trough forecast to develop near
INT/GSO this afternoon and linger through the evening. There will be
yet another chance of stratus and fog especially Sun morning, but
based on the lack of pre-dawn sub-VFR conditions in recent days in
this regime, confidence in any on Sun morning is below average.

Outlook: Areas of stratus and patchy fog will be possible throughout
cntl NC through early-mid next week. A brief period of MVFR ceilings
will also be possible as the associated moist layer is heated/lifted
during the late morning to midday hours each day. Weakly-forced, pop-
up showers/storms will remain possible mainly over the Piedmont each
afternoon-early evening, with increasing chances area-wide by Wed
or Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
637 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

NCZ011-027-028-041>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-071045-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
637 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Heat index values around 100 degrees are forecast for this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hot conditions, with afternoon heat index values around 100 degrees,
will continue through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>040-073-074-083-071045-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-
637 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
449 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

NCZ022-039-062130-
Guilford NC-Randolph NC-
449 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A slow moving thunderstorm producing heavy rain will impact
portions of north central Randolph and southwestern Guilford
Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 447 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
High Point. This storm was nearly stationary and has already
produced around 1 inch of rainfall near Jamestown.

HAZARD...Heavy rain may produce localized flooding in poor drainage
         locations.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, High Point, Archdale, Pleasant Garden, Jamestown, Oak
Hollow Marina and Forest Oaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Very heavy rain can be expected due to the slow movement of this
storm. Prolonged heavy rain will result in ponding of water on
roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and minor flooding of
creeks and streams. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra
caution to avoid hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 7965 3583 7987 3592 8005 3593 8005
      3617 7994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 214DEG 2KT 3598 7992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AS

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