Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
950 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow along the western edge of the Bermuda High will
maintain warm and humid conditions through Saturday. A cold front
will slowly move through central NC by early Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 PM Wednesday...

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for most of the
forecast area, although the watch remains in effect for locations
north and east of Raleigh until 11pm. Despite the loss of daytime
heating, showers and thunderstorms are continuing, primarily to the
southeast of US-1. Convection should dissipate after midnight owing
to convective inhibition, although can't rule some lingering
isolated storms over the Coastal Plain as the mid-level shortwave
over western OH tracks into southeastern VA early Thu. This will
likely bring another outflow boundary through the area around
sunrise. Overnight lows will remain muggy in the low to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

Persistence for Thursday and Thursday night, with little change in
the pattern featuring NW flow aloft, which may bring yet another
disturbance SEWD during the day and resulting in a band of
convection during the late afternoon and evening.   It appears that
scattered storms will begin firing invof the Piedmont trough during
the late afternoon and evening, then spread out along outflow
boundaries and lingering through midnight before winding down.
Latest SWODY2 shows all of central NC in slight risk for mainly wind
damage, owing to intense heating and subsequent CAPE and steep lapse
rates.  Day 2 ERO shows central NC west of I-95 in marginal risk,
with slight risk east of I-95...thus will need to closely monitor
for the risk of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

Temps tomorrow will reach the low to mid 90s with lows in the mid
70s. Heat indices will once again climb into the triple digits
although debris clouds could limit insolation just enough to
preclude the need for another Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

With NW flow continuing, models suggest that yet another tstm
complex over the Ohio Valley late Thursday will drift SE and re-
ignite across central NC on Friday.  With ongoing high CAPE values
and a slight uptick in deep layer shear, central NC is highlighted
once again in SWODY3, with damaging winds the main concern with any
of the stronger storms on Friday.

Meanwhile, a s/w trough over the Northeast will deepen down along
the East coast, and perhaps finally begin to push a cold front south
across our area beginning early Saturday.  It will be a slow-moving
boundary, so look for a cloudy and potentially wet period on
Saturday, which will help hold temps down several degrees below what
we've been recently experiencing.

The front is expected to push south of the state by Sunday, with
high pressure building to our north and providing a brief period of
cooler and drier conditions for late Sunday into Monday.  That will
be short-lived though, with guidance suggesting a return to low-mid
90s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 747 PM Wednesday...

Clusters of strong to severe storms continue to pulse up across
central NC this evening largely driven by outflow from previous
storms. The strongest storms are currently between the RDU and RWI
terminals where mainly wind gusts upwards of 35 to 55kt have been
sensed from TRDU and KRAX radars. Confidence is low that these
conditions will be observed at the RDU or RWI terminals, but given
the rapid development along outflow boundaries, it can not be ruled
out. Additionally, storm clusters will track southeast towards FAY
around 02-04z, but guidance is uncertain if the storms will remain
intact long enough to bring adverse aviation conditions to the
terminal. Storms will either weaken or move away from all terminals
after 05z. Some MVFR/IFR stratus may develop in the wake of these
storms with highest confidence around sunrise at the eastern TAF
sites (RDU/RWI). Stratus will lift shortly after sunrise while
scattered low VFR ceilings may linger into the afternoon. Another
round of afternoon showers/storms will again bring aviation concerns
during the afternoon/evening hours with equal chances at all
terminals. -Swiggett

Looking beyond 00z Friday, scattered showers/storms will be possible
each afternoon/evening through Saturday as a cold front moves into
our area. Areas of late night/morning stratus and fog will also be
possible across central NC through Saturday. Drier high pressure is
forecast to wedge in across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday, promoting an
improvement in flight conditions. VFR conditions are expected on
Monday. -Kren

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kren/Luchetti
NEAR TERM...Green/Kren
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Swiggett/Kren

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