Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
253 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough across the Piedmont will persist until a cold front
sweeps southeast across the area tonight. Canadian high pressure
will extend into the region on Saturday and Sunday. A strong ridge
of high pressure will develop across the South early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

...A Slight (level 2/5) and Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk of Severe
Storms with Damaging Wind Gusts through this Evening...

...Heat Advisory Remains in Effect through 8 PM...

Water vapor satellite showed an upper-level ridge centered across
the central Plains, a deep upper-level low north of the Great Lakes
Region and northwesterly flow aloft across central NC. Radar
displayed an MCS (with a history of damaging wind gusts) moving east
from TN/KY into NC/VA. The outflow from this will arrive across
western portions of the region over the next few hours, and with a
surface trough already in place across the foothills, storms will
develop and/or strengthen once moving across central NC. MLCAPE of
3000-4000 J/kg will help develop strong to severe storms. Downdraft
CAPE will increase to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon, with highest
values near the VA border. Effective bulk shear will also increase
through this evening, with highest values again near the VA border.
Best chance for severe storms with damaging wind gusts will be in
the aforementioned area, and this is where SPC has an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) for severe storms. Less coverage of severe storms are
elsewhere, where we currently have a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe storms.

Hot weather will continue this afternoon, with heat index values in
the lower to mid-100s lingering through early this evening. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for portions of the southern coastal
Plain and the Sandhills. Please see the Climate section below for
current record highs for today.

Once storms push east late this evening, additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms may develop across the eastern half of
central NC (east of US-1) as a cold front traverses the area. High-
res models greatly differ in storm coverage and intensity, however
no severe storms are expected for the period at this time. Lows
tonight will be fairly mild, ranging from the upper 60s N to mid-70s
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

As the cold front moves through the region early Saturday morning, a
1027mb Canadian high pressure will build in from the NW bringing
cool and dry air for the  weekend and much of the extended forecast
period. Skies will be mostly clear over the weekend and north to
northwesterly winds will help keep the heat at bay. Saturdays
temperatures will be in the mid/lower 80s in the north to low 90s
south and east during the day with lows dipping into the mid 50s
near the VA border to low 60s in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain
areas. Sunday will be just as nice with highs in the low 80s north
to upper 80s south, another night of temps in the 50s and 60s are
expected with dew points in the mid upper 40s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

As the surface high pressure slowly shifts over us and begins to
shift east and offshore by mid to late week expect dry conditions
for most of the extended forecast period. Temperatures early next
week will quickly climb back into the upper 90s. By mid week the dry
air mass continues to dominate the area but the strong mid-level
ridge will be over NC and hazardous temperatures in the upper 90s to
low 100s are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Dew points will be
generally in the 60s which will help keep heat indices from reaching
heat advisory criteria for now but will need to keep a close eye on
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be close to
either tying or breaking daily record highs at RDU and FAY. The
record at RDU on Wednesday is 100 and Thursday 101 and records at
FAY are 101 for Wednesday and 102 for Thursday. A cold front will
move into the region late Thursday night into Friday which could
bring slight relief to temperatures but since dew points will be
increasing, heat indices will be the hazard if record heat isn't.
For now just have a low end slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon/evening Thursday and lingering into Friday as the cold
front pushes through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

VFR conditions will continue through mid-afternoon, then TSRA will
develop from NW to SE through this evening. Storms will generate
gusty outflow winds, reduced visibility, small hail and frequent
lightning. MVFR ceilings are expected near storms, with LIFR VIS
possible at times in strongest storms. Conditions will improve by
late evening, then a cold front moving across the region tonight may
generate some SHRA, mainly near KFAY/KRWI overnight. VFR conditions
will then return for all aerodromes by late tonight and continue
through Sat afternoon. Gusty NWerly winds will develop Sat morning
and continue through the afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 kt expected.

Outlook: High pressure will help generate VFR conditions for all
areas through early next week. A disturbance moving across the
region will create the next possibility of SHRA/TSRA and sub-VFR
conditions next Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for 6/17...

RDU 99 set in 1945
GSO 98 set in 1944
FAY 101 set in 1981

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ084>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Blaes/JJT
NEAR TERM...JJT
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JJT
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
508 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

NCZ084>086-088-089-181200-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
508 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, there is a Level 2 risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be
the primary hazard, with a secondary threat of large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

After a cool down for the weekend, hot temperatures in the upper
90s to around 100 degrees are expected again mid next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through evening.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083-181200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
508 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hot temperatures and seasonably high humidity will result in heat
index values between 100 and 105 degrees this afternoon.

In addition, there is a Level 2 risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be
the primary hazard, with a secondary threat of large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

After a cool down for the weekend, hot temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s are expected again mid next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through evening.

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