Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
353 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will be over central NC through tonight. A
cold front will move through the area Friday and early Saturday.
Cool high pressure will build in Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

...A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Storms with Damaging Wind
Gusts and Large Hail Possible, Along with a Heat Advisory...

Water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper-level ridge
centered across the TN Valley and the MS Valley. Surface
observations showed an occluded front across the NC foothills. Radar
showed thunderstorms moving south across the southern coastal Plain
and the Sandhills, with a larger cluster of storms developing along
the front and moving into the Triad.

Latest 1230 PM update from SPC upgraded the western half of central
NC to a Slight Risk (level 2/5), but keeps most of our remaining
area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued for the western 2/3rds of the region through this
evening. Storms will be greater in coverage this afternoon due to
greater instability aloft, and with additional outflows from current
storms, SB CAPE of 3000 J/kg, and high temperatures and dewpoints,
an active afternoon and evening is expected for the western half of
central NC. The greatest threat today is damaging wind gusts,
although some storms will be capable of producing large hail. Most
of our area is also under a Marginal Risk of flash flooding with
storms today, with precipitable water values ranging from 1.75-2".
Best chance of flash flooding will be across urban areas.

Heat index values will linger the low 100s through this evening,
with some locations across the Triad and southern Piedmont reaching
106 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM.

Most storms will diminish by late this evening, with dry conditions
expected tonight. Lows tonight will be mild, ranging from the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

...A Slight Risk of Severe Storms with Damaging Wind Gusts and Large
Hail, along with Dangerous Heat Indices...

The upper ridge will push west on Friday helping to lower heights
aloft, however southwesterly surface flow will continue a moist,
warm airmass over the region for another day. Mostly clear skies
early in the day will allow for excellent insolation across the
region, then cloud cover increases in the afternoon as storms
develop. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s by the
early afternoon, and with dewpoints in the uppers 60s to low 70s,
heat index values will vary from 100-107 degrees, with highest
values across the southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for areas with the highest
temperatures.

The warm and moist airmass will be in place as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Storms will develop ahead of the
front, and with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg, and weak shear, storms may
be more pulse-like rather than more organized. SPC now has the whole
area under a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe storms. Damaging wind
gusts will again be the main threat, however large hail is possible
in the strongest storms.

Storms will exit the area to the southeast by late evening, with
mostly dry conditions expected across the region overnight. The
drier air and lower temperatures will be delayed behind the front,
not arriving until later Saturday. Lows Friday night will be mild,
ranging from the upper 60s N to mid 70s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

The weekend looks beautiful with dry and cooler air moving in as
high pressure builds in from the NW. Highs will be in the mid and
upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s in
the north, to low 60s in the south.

As the high pressure slowly moves offshore Monday and Tuesday,
temperatures early next week will quickly climb back into the upper
90s. By mid week dry air mass continues to dominate the area but the
strong mid-level ridge will be over NC and hazardous temperatures in
the upper 90s to low 100s are expected. Dew points will be generally
in the 60s. For now heat indices for Wednesday and Thursday will be
below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

TSRA will develop across much of the region through this evening,
mainly affecting KGSO/KINT/KRDU, with less coverage near KFAY and
KRWI. Gusty winds are the main threats with storms, however large
hail is possible. LIFR conditions will develop near strongest
storms. Conditions will improve from NW to SE through this evening,
with most areas becoming VFR overnight into Fri morning.

Outlook: Isolated/scattered thunderstorms are possible Fri aftn/eve
with a pre-frontal trough and cold front. Outside of potential
storms, VFR conditions are expected through Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ021-022-038-073-083.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJT
NEAR TERM...JJT
SHORT TERM...JJT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

NCZ010-011-026>028-042-043-078-088-089-171930-
Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
Cumberland-Sampson-
325 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms through this
evening. The main hazard is expected to be damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Dangerous heat will continue through Friday, with heat indices
up to 107 degrees. After a cool down this weekend, dangerous heat is
expected again by midweek next week.

There is a slight risk of severe storms Friday afternoon/evening,
with the main risk of damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ007>009-023>025-039>041-074>077-084>086-171930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
325 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening.
The main hazard is expected to be damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Dangerous heat will continue through Friday, with heat indices
up to 107 degrees. After a cool down this weekend, dangerous heat is
expected again by midweek next week.

There is a slight risk of severe storms Friday afternoon/evening,
with the main risk of damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ021-022-038-073-083-171930-
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Stanly-Anson-
325 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening. The
main hazards are expected to be damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Dangerous heat will continue through Friday, with heat indices
up to 102 degrees. After a cool down this weekend, dangerous heat is
expected again by midweek next week.

There is a slight risk of severe storms Friday afternoon/evening,
with the main risk of damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

JJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
449 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

NCZ022-038-039-162115-
Guilford NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-
449 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Davidson, northwestern Randolph and southwestern Guilford Counties
through 515 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thomasville, or near High Point, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
High Point, Thomasville, Archdale and Trinity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Dont wait until you see the first lightning flash before heading to
safety. Move indoors at the first sign of threatening skies or the
first sound of thunder. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead
of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind. Make
sure that lightning is well away from your location before resuming
outdoor activity.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8011 3601 8005 3596 7984 3590 7988
      3588 7999 3583 8005 3590 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 305DEG 15KT 3594 8007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AS

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