Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
225 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front and increasingly humid air will retreat north across
the southern Mid Atlantic this morning. A pre-frontal trough will
then become quasi-stationary over the Piedmont today, followed by
the passage of a cold front across the region tonight. High
pressure, and associated much drier and warm conditions, will build
across the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 PM Thursday...

00Z surface analysis continued to show the wedge front over the n-nw
Piedmont, shifting a little north since this afternoon but still
invof Forsyth Co.  Satellite imagery shows the deep moisture plume
ahead of the upper low centered over western NC with some embedded
disturbances, the most notable an MCV over s-c GA.  Earlier
discreet, shallow supercells in the Foothills have more or less
coalesced into a broken line of storms with periodic rotation. The
line is inching eastward as the storms move n-ne and will flirt with
western Forsyth over the next couple of hours.  The line extends
back to CLT, and while not as vigorous there, there has been renewed
development aided by sely flow and an axis of 500-1000 MLCAPE
extending from CHS to CLT.  Sfc winds are still backed to sely and
the low-level flow will be supportive of some rotation in storms,
though the overall intensity of the storms should wane some with
loss of heating.  Will also have to monitor the eastward progression
of the line, as it would favor training of storms over the Winston-
Salem area if it does push east. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275
expires at 10pm and we do not expect any need for extension
overnight.

There should be a lull in convection between 11pm and 4-5am,
afterwhich high res guidance suggests another round of storms
moving into the southern Piedmont, likely supported by the upstream
MCV and weak destablization that generally continues over the
western Piedmont.  Point soundings in the western Piedmont erode a
weak cap by 5am and maintain enough hodograph curvature to warrant
at least a low end threat of an isolated severe storm or tornado.,
particularly as the LLJ is forecast to intensify to ~40kt overhead.
However, confidence is low given the unfavorable diurnal timing.

Outside of the convective threat, no changes were really made to
the forecast other than adjustments to observations in cloud cover,
with less cloud cover in the east.  lows will remain mild in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Friday...

The upper trough will progress through the region Sat, with the sub-
tropical ridge shifting eastward into the region Sat night. At the
surface, the cold front/surface trough will sit over the Coastal
Plain Sat, then continue eastward to along the NC coast Sat night,
with relatively cool high pressure settling over the Appalachians
and into the mid-Atlantic through Sat night. Some showers and storms
are possible along the lingering front/trough Sat, but should
largely be east of central NC. Otherwise, dry weather is expected
across the area through Sat night. Highs in the low to mid 80s, with
lows in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 AM Friday...

The sub-tropical ridge will remain over the Southeast and mid-
Atlantic through mid-week, with the center of the high generally
over the OH Valley/northern mid-Atlantic. An area of low pressure
off the Southeast US coast Mon/Tue, should move westward and inland
over the Southeast by mid week. While rain cannot be completely
ruled out, the high just to the north should keep it suppressed to
the south. High pressure will dominate at the surface Mon, with a
Piedmont trough possible Tue and Wed. A northern stream wave will
move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through Wed and
into the Great Lakes/OH Valley Wed night/Thu, pushing the ridge
south and east. The best chance for rain in the extended forecast
will be with this wave and associated cold front and pre-frontal
trough, as they move into the mid-Atlantic/Northeast US Thu/Thu
night. Temperatures will remain above average, gradually moderating
with time, through at least mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

Occasionally gusty sly low level flow will transport increasingly
moist and humid air across cntl NC this morning. This regime will
favor both widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings this morning and also the
development and maintenance of multiple bands of showers and storms
ahead of a cold front and following drier and more stable air
that will not move east across the region until tonight.

Outlook: Warm and dry high pressure, and associated VFR conditions,
will extend across the region this weekend through early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Smith
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1045 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

NCZ007>011-024>028-041>043-076>078-088-089-280245-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-
Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
1045 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms on Friday will be capable
of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and an isolated tornado.
Heavy rain and flash flooding may also result.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>023-038>040-073>075-083>086-280245-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
1045 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
late tonight. Strong winds and localized heavy rainfall will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms on Friday will be capable
of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and an isolated tornado.
Heavy rain and flash flooding may also result.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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