Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering front will remain stationary over southeastern NC
into Wednesday. A slow moving upper level low pressure system will
approach from the west late in the week, bringing a round of wet
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1036 PM Monday...

...Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather (damaging wind
gusts and isolated tornadoes) continues...

Showers and storms associated with the surface low will continue to
lift through central NC tonight. While some of the convective
activity will move out and dissipate, rain is expected to persist
across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain (along the
NC/VA border) through tonight. PWATs are still in the 1.7 to 1.9
inch range across the area, thus any ongoing rain could produce very
heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible. Wind gusts could
also be quite strong, upwards of 40 mph or more at times. Lows
should generally bottom out in the 60s, lowest along the VA border,
highest in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1258 PM Monday...

Surface boundary will still be hung up across the area Tuesday
morning (roughly along US-1) and it's likely that there will be
showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing at daybreak as the
surface low traverses the area. Surface based instability and best
BL-rooted thunderstorm chances during the day Tuesday will be in the
warm sector south and east of the front (generally
Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain) although elevated instability
could allow for an occasional rumble of thunder anywhere across
central NC. Eventually the surface low will move offshore with moist
northeasterly flow pushing the front southward and CAD taking hold
across a good majority of the area. The southern Coastal Plain is
likely to remain within the warm unstable sector all day into the
evening hours, and PoPs will remain highest in that area in
particular.

Temperatures tomorrow will vary considerably across the area with
upper 60s in the NW and mid 80s in the SE. Lows in the upper 50s NW,
mid 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1258 PM Monday...

Wednesday looks to be the driest day of the week with the front just
south of the area. Relatively cool northeasterly flow will lead to
cloudy skies along with the potential for some drizzle and/or very
light rain but overall confidence in this scenario is low and I will
only mention 15-20 PoPs during the daytime hours. Slightly higher
precip chances will be confined to the Sandhills/southern Coastal
Plain in the vicinity of the stalled surface boundary across SC.
Temperatures will be below normal on Wednesday ranging from the
lower 70s to the north to the lower 80s in the south. Lows in the
lower 60s.

Meanwhile to the west, an upper low will move out of the southern
Plains and into the lower OH valley Thursday with a broad area of
southwest flow aloft overspreading the Mid Atlantic. This will allow
the stalled boundary to retreat northward as a warm front, once
again putting NC into the warm sector ahead of an approaching low.
Temperatures should easily return to the upper 70s to mid 80s on
Thursday, with similar but slightly lower temps on Friday. Lee
troughing near the mountains will likely serve as a focal point for
shower and storm development Thursday afternoon and evening, before
showers and storms move eastward across the remainder of the area on
Friday. At the same time the upper low and attendant surface cold
front will slowly move through the area, bringing increased chances
of showers and storms to close out the week. Anomalously high PW's
will precede this trough much like what we've seen recently and some
localized areas of heavy rain can't be ruled out Thursday and
especially Friday.

There are still varying solutions with respect to how quickly the
upper low exits the area, and this is also evident in the ensembles
and ensemble clusters. There's at least a small consensus showing
cyclonic flow aloft across the area through the weekend but with
rising heights nudging into the southwest Piedmont. This should
yield steadily rising temperatures that are slightly above normal
for late May along with a very low end chance (20 percent) of
showers and storms Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...

Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions will continue today into tonight
across much of the region. The exception will be at KFAY early today
where MVFR conditions are expected. Occasional light rain or drizzle
will continue this morning, with scattered showers this afternoon.
There is a chance of a thunderstorm in the SE this afternoon. All

Looking beyond 06z Wed, LIFR to IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS are expected
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Finally, a gradual return to
MVFR CIGS then VFR conditions are expected Wed-Thu.

The next chance of sub-VFR conditions will be Thursday night and
Friday as the next system approaches from the west.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1002 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-241415-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
1002 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal (Level 1) Risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, generally for areas south of Interstate 85.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard. An isolated tornado will
be possible along the track of low pressure later today into the
evening.

In addition, heavy rainfall with localized areas of up to 3
inches can be expected this afternoon and tonight. Minor flooding of
urban areas and small streams can be expected. Isolated flash
flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
131 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

NCZ073-074-083-084-231830-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-
131 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Anson, western
Montgomery, western Richmond and Stanly Counties through 230 PM
EDT...

At 130 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Hemby Bridge to near Pageland. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Wadesboro, Troy, Badin Lake, Ansonville, Plyler, Midland,
Polkton, Locust and Norwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3551 7999 3510 7976 3493 7986
      3490 7985 3486 7990 3481 7992 3481 8032
      3519 8028 3517 8035 3518 8037 3516 8044
      3519 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 241DEG 31KT 3513 8063 3479 8047

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Leins

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
236 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

NCZ022-023-231930-
Guilford NC-Alamance NC-
236 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Alamance and northeastern Guilford Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elon, or near Burlington, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Burlington, Graham, McLeansville, Elon, Gibsonville, Haw
River, Swepsonville, Alamance and Haw River State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7926 3619 7926 3591 7945 3604 7978
      3625 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 210DEG 24KT 3605 7955

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Leins

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
249 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

NCZ042-078-089-231945-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Wayne NC-
249 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Wayne,
northern Sampson and eastern Johnston Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Smithfield, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Smithfield, Mount Olive, Benson, Micro, Selma, Four Oaks,
Pine Level, Kenly and Princeton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, seek shelter immediately inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 7864 3517 7863 3520 7864 3520 7863
      3525 7862 3527 7858 3530 7858 3533 7853
      3534 7853 3536 7856 3540 7854 3570 7822
      3564 7814 3560 7812 3559 7808 3543 7787
      3518 7809 3519 7816 3509 7817 3500 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 212DEG 26KT 3535 7824

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
312 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

NCZ040-075>077-086-232015-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Moore NC-
312 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Moore,
Harnett, Lee, northern Hoke and southeastern Chatham Counties through
415 PM EDT...

At 312 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Carthage to near Southern Pines to 6 miles
south of Aberdeen. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Southern Pines, Lillington, Carthage, Aberdeen, Angier,
Erwin, Whispering Pines, Coats and Broadway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Raleigh.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 7941 3520 7943 3542 7949 3571 7912
      3561 7899 3552 7869 3545 7862 3540 7860
      3536 7856 3526 7881 3526 7882 3524 7887
      3523 7888 3519 7909 3513 7911
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 237DEG 44KT 3541 7944 3523 7937 3505 7941

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Leins