Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Raleigh, NC

652 
WGUS72 KRAH 230339
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1139 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

NCC163-230415-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-220823T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sampson NC-
1139 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT TUESDAY 
FOR NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY...

At 1139 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area have moved out of the area. 
Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen in the last hour, but 4 
to 5 inches have fallen in the past 24 hours. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Newton Grove, Salemburg, Autryville and Hobbton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3529 7831 3523 7825 3520 7816 3511 7817
      3498 7848 3495 7860 3495 7861 3499 7865
      3511 7865 3512 7864 3512 7865 3514 7864
      3522 7861 3526 7849 3526 7841

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JJT

389 
WGUS72 KRAH 230409
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1209 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

NCC163-230419-
/O.EXP.KRAH.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-220823T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sampson NC-
1209 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3529 7831 3523 7825 3520 7816 3511 7817
      3498 7848 3495 7860 3495 7861 3499 7865
      3511 7865 3512 7864 3512 7865 3514 7864
      3522 7861 3526 7849 3526 7841

$$

JJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
926 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move into the area overnight and will stall over
the area on Tuesday before washing out by mid week. Otherwise,
noticeably drier air over the region will limit rain chances through
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 925 PM Monday...

An upper-level low over wrn NY and trailing shortwave trough across
the OH Valley will pivot east and across the Mid-Atlantic tonight.
At the base of that trough, an unseasonably strong upper-level jet
in excess of 100 kts across TN and the srn Appalachians, per both
the OHX RAOB and GOES derived motion wind, will streak across nrn SC
and srn NC through the same time. The models suggest the divergent
left exit region of that jet streak, now over srn NC, will move east
and offshore through ~06Z.

Multi-cell convection that developed during the afternoon along a
Piedmont trough over NC has produced a relatively well-organized,
aggregate outflow boundary from sern Wayne Co. wswwd across nrn
Sampson, cntl Cumberland, and srn Scotland, Richmond, and Anson Co.
Redeveloping and backbuilding cells along and on the cool side of
that boundary appear to be aided by ascent within the aforementioned
upper jet left exit region, where this convection is likely to
continue to focus and present a risk of flash flooding for at least
the next few hours (though midnight-1 AM EST). Reference WPC's
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion (MPD) #849 for details.
Elsewhere, isolated convection will remain possible along and ahead
of a synoptic cold front that will move slowly sewd from the
immediate lee of the srn-cntl Appalachians at 01Z to the nrn NC
Piedmont by 12Z.

Drier air behind the front, characterized by trailing surface
dewpoints in the low-mid 60s, will favor slightly cooler lows in the
mid 60s west of I-85 to upr 60s-lwr 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 PM Monday...

The mid/upper trough axis will shift east of the area by the
afternoon, which will allow the drier air over the western portions
of the state to spread into central and eastern portions of the
forecast area. The stalled surface front, which will be mostly a
moisture/dewpoint boundary, will meander somewhere INVOF the eastern
Piedmont-coastal plain areas. With the aforementioned drier air and
strongest capping aloft noted across interior sections, convective
rain chances will remain confined to the far SE counties, where
sufficient moisture and instability will exist.

The morning fog/stratus across eastern portions will quickly
disperse after sunrise. More seasonable temperatures with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 232 PM Monday...

A drier and warmer trend is noted in the extended based on latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance, with the best chance of storms
looking to be Thu/Fri/Sat.

Quasi-zonal flow will exist over central NC Wed, sandwiched between
a trough over the Ohio Valley and another in the SE US. A shear axis
will be along the coast of the Carolinas, with generally west-
southwest over the Piedmont. The surface cold front along the
southern portion of central NC appears to wash out during the day,
as southerly flow returns. The best chance of any diurnally driven
storms will be found along the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain
in closer proximity to higher moisture (PW's near 1.8 inches there)
and along an inland moving sea-breeze. The drier forecast will favor
warmer temperatures back above average in the upper 80s to lower
90s, though downslope flow should keep things comfortable. Overnight
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A series of weak shortwaves in the mid-level flow will track up
along the SE US into the Carolinas ahead of that weak trough over
the Tennessee Valley. It appears a weak cold front tries to approach
from the north by Sat, but unclear if it will move all the way
through the region. Where these aforementioned shortwaves track is
somewhat uncertain. The GFS/CMC keep most of this energy mainly
close to the NC coast, whereas the ECMWF is further north and wetter
as a result. The ensembles are largely in between, with the GEFS/CMC
showing a generally similar picture to the GFS/CMC and the EPS
wetter, closer to its deterministic counterpart. Given this
uncertainty, have lowered storm chances, though highest in the
Thu/Fri/Sat timeframe as moisture increases. It will be more muggy
with highs in this period in the middle 80s to low 90s and lows in
the upper 60s/lower 70s.

The shortwave energy across the SE appears to move offshore and
become diffuse Sun/Mon, as ridging sets up over the western
Atlantic. This should favor a drier and humid trend with highs in
near to above average in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Storm chances
should largely be driven by a sea-breeze and daytime heating over
the Foothills of western NC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 715 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: The Triad terminals (KINT and KGSO) should
largely be done with rain and remain dry through the TAF period.
Showers and storms will be possible at the remaining three terminals
through the evening, with coverage and intensity dropping off after
dusk. KFAY and KRDU will be most likely impacted. A weak cold front
will move in from the northwest overnight, scattering out cloud
cover in the Triad. There is one model hinting at potential
fog/stratus at KINT/KGSO around dawn, but confidence in that
occurring is low. On the other hand, IFR/LIFR fog/low-stratus is
likely to develop at KFAY and KRWI, with fairly high confidence it
will occur at those terminals. The wild card for low cigs is KRDU,
where it will depend on the extent and timing of the cloud cover
scattering out, with the front possibly stalling between the Triad
and Triangle. Have included some restrictions, with medium
confidence of occurrence. KRDU and KRWI should gradually return to
VFR after daybreak, with the slowest improvement at KFAY, with a
chance they could remain MVFR into the early afternoon. -KC

Looking ahead: The best chance for afternoon showers and storms will
shift to eastern/coastal portions of NC Tuesday through late week as
drier air spreads into the area from west. -CBL

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...KC/CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
424 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-230830-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
424 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
619 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

NCZ074-075-083-084-222315-
Anson NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-Moore NC-
619 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

...Scattered, strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
southwestern Moore, central Anson, southeastern Montgomery and
Richmond Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 615 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms in a
cluster from around Wadesboro to Ellerbe to 3 miles west of
Pinehurst. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Pines, Rockingham, Wadesboro, Pinehurst, Hamlet, Aberdeen,
Ansonville, Hoffman, Polkton and Whispering Pines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 8016 3515 8008 3514 8007 3518 8005
      3525 7994 3529 7942 3523 7935 3514 7935
      3504 7946 3503 7951 3499 7957 3489 7970
      3487 8010 3494 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 264DEG 11KT 3520 7981 3506 7996 3496 8005

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
716 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

NCZ041-230000-
Wake NC-
716 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Wake
County through 800 PM EDT...

At 715 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
RDU International, or near Raleigh, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Wake Forest, RDU International, Morrisville,
Rolesville, Falls Lake Boat Ramp, Purnell, William B Umstead State
Park and Falls Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Boaters on Falls Lake and those camping outdoors are especially
vulnerable to the dangers of lightning. Seek harbor immediately and
find safe shelter in a nearby building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 7848 3598 7843 3594 7839 3593 7835
      3591 7835 3583 7851 3576 7875 3581 7880
      3588 7883 3592 7881 3592 7876 3597 7871
      3601 7870 3606 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 236DEG 13KT 3588 7871

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
719 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

NCZ075-084>086-230015-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Hoke NC-Moore NC-
719 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Moore,
northern Scotland, eastern Richmond and Hoke Counties through 815 PM
EDT...

At 719 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pinehurst to 6 miles southwest of Hoffman.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Pines, Raeford, Pinehurst, Hamlet, Aberdeen, Hoffman,
Pinebluff, Foxfire, Dobbins Heights and Wagram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with these
storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 7966 3490 7973 3518 7954 3524 7917
      3521 7915 3519 7910 3513 7911 3511 7910
      3491 7924 3484 7935 3482 7936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 265DEG 21KT 3513 7953 3497 7964

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
726 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

NCZ089-230015-
Sampson NC-
726 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Sampson
County through 815 PM EDT...

At 726 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Godwin, or 15 miles northwest of Clinton, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newton Grove, Hobbton and Spivey's Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 7858 3514 7863 3523 7861 3527 7849
      3526 7848 3526 7841 3529 7830 3522 7824
      3520 7816 3508 7830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 256DEG 13KT 3517 7850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
744 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

NCZ083-084-230045-
Anson NC-Richmond NC-
744 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Anson
and south central Richmond Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 743 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Rockingham, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rockingham, Hamlet, Dobbins Heights, East Rockingham, Diggs and
Blewett Falls Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7986 3481 7993 3483 7998 3499 7989
      3496 7973 3487 7961 3485 7963 3484 7962
      3482 7962 3482 7963 3481 7968 3480 7969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 294DEG 13KT 3490 7992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26