Tornado Warning 14, NWS Pueblo, CO

627 
WWUS55 KPUB 080219
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
819 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

COC099-080229-
/O.CAN.KPUB.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-220608T0230Z/
Prowers CO-
819 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
western Prowers County.

LAT...LON 3764 10236 3786 10258 3791 10248 3769 10204
      3765 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 314DEG 21KT 3762 10219 

$$

MG/Cohen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Convection firing across the area at mid-afternoon, with severe
storms/supercells already developing as surface CAPE is running
1500-2500 J/KG across the plains and 0-6km shear is around 50 kts.
Current radar trends and various CAMs continue to suggest
strongest storms along the Palmer Divide moving e-se and
potentially brushing Kiowa County, while another cluster of
stronger storms pushes eastward across Las Animas/Baca
Counties. Activity looks to be more isolated elsewhere back along
I-25, though potential for severe with any storm east of the
mountains remains. Main storm risk will be large hail, as we've
already had golfball to nearly tennis ball hail with a storm in El
Paso County, though tornado potential over the plains will
increase east of an Eads/Kim line toward 23z, as low level wind
field strengthens and storms move toward the main instability
axis. CAMSs then suggest activity congeals into a loosely
organized line over the far eastern plains later this evening,
which could increase the damaging wind risk before storms exit
into KS/OK/TX by late evening.

Overnight, cold front races south through the plains, with a
period of gusty winds and perhaps a shower/sprinkle over the
southeast mountain slopes and plains after midnight, as post
frontal air-mass briefly saturates. On Wednesday, generally
cooler/more stable air mass in place across the area in the wake
of the cold front. with many models suggesting little if any deep
convection developing. Suspect there will still be enough weak
instability over the mountains for a few afternoon storms, with
greatest chances over the srn Sangres where model CAPE is around
500 J/KG. Max temps will end up below seasonal averages over the
plains, while mountains and valleys see little change as cooler
air stays east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

1) Strong to severe storms possible on Thursday.

2) Drying and warming trend expected for southern Colorado going
into this weekend.

Wednesday Night and Thursday..

Despite cold frontal passage on Wednesday morning, overnight low
temperatures look to stay fairly normal for Wednesday night with
most areas falling into the 50s on the plains and 40s in the
mountains. Strong westerlies and a building ridge aloft will send
daytime highs soaring well into the nineties on our eastern plains
and mid to upper 80s for higher terrain. Another quick moving
disturbance in the flow aloft moves across central CO by Thursday
afternoon, bringing with it some chances for more thunderstorm
activity, some of which could be severe.

Moisture advection will be aided by the presence of lower pressure
over the Great Basin and higher pressure over the central plains.
With this set up, orographics will be enough to initiate general
convection on Thursday afternoon. Increased instability over the
plains will lead to a potential to see some strong to severe
development as storms move off the mountains and into the more
favorable environment around peak heating. With classic "inverted v"
forecast soundings and forecasted DCAPE values over 1800 J/Kg in the
plains, the main threat for these storms looks to be strong and
variable outflow winds. The wetting rain potential looks better
further east, but we could see more virga than rain along the I-25
corridor.

Friday through Sunday..

GEFS and EPS are in good agreement with ridging continuing to build
in aloft from Friday through the weekend. A very weak frontal
passage early on Friday will cool us down slightly and keep highs in
the upper 80s on the plains, but we will likely maintain above
average daytime highs throughout the weekend. Humidity values stay
high enough to avoid fire weather headlines east of Interstate 25
all weekend, but we will likely hit Red Flag criteria on both Friday
and Sunday afternoon in the San Luis Valley where humidity falls
into the low teens as early as 11am.

Monday and Tuesday..

Ensembles start to diverge with confidence in the upper pattern
decreasing significantly as we head into next week. Both the GEFS
and EPS hint at a transition to troughing and strong southwesterly
flow to start out our work week, but timing and placement vary
substantially. GEFS seems to be the most consistent from run to run,
and would keep the overall system rather north of us. If this
placement is to be believed, then Monday will likely be a fairly
widespread fire weather day for us in south central and southeastern
Colorado as any precipitation would be limited to our central
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, as most tsra this evening should
stay over the higher terrain along the eastern edge of the San
Luis Valley. W-SW winds will become gusty this afternoon, before
diminishing this evening and overnight. On Wednesday, tsra again
possible over the mountains surrounding the Valley, but chance of
a storm at the airport looks low.

At KCOS and KPUB, vcts at both terminals until 00z-01z. Brief
MVFR/IFR vis possible with any stronger storms, along with a risk
of hail as well. Cold front then moves through both airports 05z-
06z, bringing north winds gusting to 30 kts through the morning on
Wed. Expect VFR cigs behind the front, with some patchy MVFR just
north of KCOS near the Palmer Divide. On Wednesday, any tsra will
stay mainly over the higher terrain west of both terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-081745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1143 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along
and east of the mountains today, with the greatest risk for
severe thunderstorms from the I-25 corridor eastward through the
plains. Hail up to the size of baseballs and wind gusts around 70
mph will be the primary storm risks between 2 PM and 9 PM, before
thunderstorms move east of the area by 11 pm. An isolated tornado
will be possible, especially in the vicinity of the Palmer Divide
and Raton Ridge.

Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible across
portions of the San Luis Valley and upper Arkansas River Valley in
Chaffee county this afternoon and early evening due to gusty winds
and low relative humidity. However these conditions are expected to
remain brief and localized.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
possible across the eastern mountains and plains for Wednesday
through Sunday. A couple of storms could be strong to severe
Wednesday and Thursday. The main hazards with those storms would be
cloud to ground lightning, large hail up to 1 inch, and strong winds
up to 60 mph.

Critical Fire Weather conditions are possible across portions of
the San Luis Valley Friday, and then more widespread across
southern Colorado Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

10/SIMCOE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
629 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             HWY 50 AND CR 30        38.11N 102.84W
06/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       BENT               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
642 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TORNADO          9 S ARLINGTON           38.20N 103.33W
06/07/2022  UF1              BENT               CO   STORM CHASER

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
645 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             9 S ARLINGTON           38.20N 103.33W
06/07/2022  E2.75 INCH       BENT               CO   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
657 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TORNADO          8 S LAMAR               37.97N 102.62W
06/07/2022                   PROWERS            CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED TORNADO
            TOUCHDOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
658 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TORNADO          8 S LAMAR               37.97N 102.62W
06/07/2022                   PROWERS            CO   STORM CHASER

            VIDEO OF TORNADO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
715 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             1 W FORT LYON           38.10N 103.16W
06/07/2022  M1.75 INCH       BENT               CO   STORM CHASER

            PICTURE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MW