Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1223 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Forecast on track for this afternoon across the area, with an
increase in shower and thunderstorm development across the higher
terrain noted this past hour. This trend will likely continue into
the afternoon over and near the higher terrain with some
possibility for some isolated storms to move into parts of the
I-25 corridor. Some weak convergence across the Pikes Peak region
and Palmer Divide has supported light showery development, and
this could serve as additional focus later this afternoon into the
evening as some increase in mid level energy moves overhead. No
change in thinking with hazards today, with gusty winds to around
50 mph and brief heavy rainfall the main threats.

Did increase high temps a degree or two, especially along the
lower Arkansas River Valley where temps have already risen to
around 100 degrees. Do think its possible for the COS area to see
additional temp rises today, though cloud cover and a push of
northerly winds with some showery development later this afternoon
could limit rises.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Key Messages:

1) Very hot conditions again today, and a few spots along the lower
Arkansas Valley could climb to around 105f by late afternoon.

2) Increased coverage of thunderstorms over and near the higher
terrain this afternoon.

Center of upper level high pressure was over sern Colorado early
this morning, with satellite loops suggesting a gradual influx of
mid and high level moisture from nrn NM into areas west of I-25 as
sly winds increase to the west of the high. For today, expect upper
high to move little, which will allow a moderate flow of moisture
into the wrn half of the area through the day. Thus expect an
increase in convective coverage over the mountains this afternoon,
with storms moving across interior valleys and the I-25 corridor by
00z. Some enhancement of convection along a weak surface front along
the Palmer Divide may occur as well, though low surface CAPE(800
J/KG or less) on the plains may limit storm strength. Low levels
still look fairly dry on most forecast soundings, and many CAMs
suggest extensive outflows developing by evening, perhaps enhancing
and driving the surface boundary on the plains southward toward the
Arkansas River by midnight. Given overhead position of the upper
high, some compressional warming ahead of the Palmer Divide frontal
boundary and yesterday's temperature over-performance, nudged up
maxes a few degf along and east of I-25, with perhaps a couple spots
along the lower Arkansas Valley reaching a toasty 105f by late
afternoon. Tonight, convection dissipates fairly quickly in the
evening, with outflow winds subsiding toward sunset as well. Surface
front near the Arkansas River weakens, as main push of colder air
looks likely to wait until after sunrise to arrive on the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Key messages:

1) Strong to severe storms possible Monday afternoon and evening,
especially across the eastern plains.

2) Daily chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over
the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor.

A ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners region will remain in
place throughout the extended period.

Monday...An upper shortwave moving east across MT and the Dakotas
late Sunday night will temporarily flatten the ridge over the
region, and will push a cold front south into eastern CO for Monday.
Models indicate an initial northerly surge early Monday morning,
with the main front passing over the Palmer Divide right around
midday. As this front surges south, surface winds behind it will
shift from a north to northeast direction at first, then swing
around to a more easterly direction through the evening. Increased
llvl moisture as well as enhanced wind shear will set the stage for
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms through the aftn and
evening, and SPC has already highlighted the eastern plains within a
Marginal box for severe storms. Convection may persist across the
plains into the overnight hours. As for temps, the front is expected
to drop max temps across the plains by about 10 degrees from the
previous day, but it will still be a warm day with highs in the 80s
for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains.

Tuesday...The upper ridge begins to amplify once again with
northwest flow aloft settled in, trapping lingering moisture across
the state and providing for another day of widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. All areas should see some convection, though
the mts will serve as the focus for much of the activity. The cooler
air is forecast to hang around for one more day, so plan on aftn
readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and 80s
to 90F for the plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...The upper ridge remains in place
through the remainder of the extended period, but long range models
indicate that the moisture plume will track up across the Four
Corners and place much of the moisture across eastern UT and western
CO. There will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening convection
for the higher terrain, with more isolated activity along the I-25
Corridor which will likely be more wind than heavy downpours. The
far eastern plains near the Kansas border is forecast to remain dry.
Temps will be on the climb once again as well, with maximum readings
in the 80s for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the
plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

VFR conditions with mainly dry weather are once again expected
this forecast period. Some potential for an isolated shower or
storm to move across all sites this afternoon into early evening.
No change with the lower confidence at this time, so did leave
the VCSH and will continue to closely monitor trends. The lighter
winds in place at this time are expected to change later this
afternoon into the evening, with winds shifting to a northerly
direction. Expect gusts to also increase during the evening hours,
before winds diminish during the overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-111730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1123 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon over
the mountains, with activity spreading across most valleys and the
Interstate 25 corridor from mid afternoon into the evening. The
main risks from storms today will be lightning and gusty winds to
around 50 mph, with some brief heavy rainfall possible over the
higher terrain along the Continental Divide as well.

Near record high temperatures are expected again today over the
eastern plains, and a few spots in the lower Arkansas Valley from
Pueblo eastward are expected to climb to around 105 by late
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

On Monday and Tuesday, returning moisture behind a cold front
will bring increasing thunderstorm chances, especially across the
eastern mountains and plains, where severe storms and locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast for Wednesday through Saturday across the higher terrain,
with just isolated activity expected along the I-25 Corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

RODRIGUEZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

COZ060>062-102145-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft CO-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft CO-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
314 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

...Scattered strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central
Chaffee County through 345 PM MDT...

At 311 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking scattered strong
thunderstorms over the Chalk Cliffs and Cottonwood Pass areas,
moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Other locations in the path of these storms include St Elmo
and Alpine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 10628 3852 10620 3848 10630 3851 10635
      3862 10636 3864 10639 3865 10643 3870 10645
      3872 10642 3882 10642 3882 10638 3886 10635
      3891 10632 3891 10637 3892 10638 3891 10640
      3893 10642 3891 10647 3896 10653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 195DEG 7KT 3868 10636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SR/PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

COZ072-073-076>079-087-102230-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
342 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Huerfano, western Fremont, central Custer and eastern Saguache
Counties through 430 PM MDT...

At 342 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Howard to 6 miles east of Crestone Peak.
Movement was north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hayden Pass Burn Scar, Howard, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, Silver Cliff,
Westcliffe and Hillside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 10581 3797 10523 3784 10541 3839 10588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 180DEG 20KT 3842 10583 3799 10546

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SR/PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
351 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

COZ071-074-075-102230-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Southern San Luis Valley CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
351 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Huerfano, east central Costilla and western Las Animas Counties
through 430 PM MDT...

At 351 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of San Luis, or 17 miles southwest of Indian Creek on
the southeastern Spring Burn Scar, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Huerfano, east central Costilla and western Las Animas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 10531 3726 10542 3746 10538 3736 10507
      3724 10521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 192DEG 9KT 3728 10535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SR/PS