Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Key Messages:

1) Isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds for areas
along and west of Leadville to Alamosa late this afternoon and
evening. A few strong storms remain possible along the I-25 corridor
and eastern plains this afternoon.

2) Additional thunderstorms, a few strong to possibly severe, are
possible across the eastern plains Monday afternoon.

Still monitoring the potential for isolated strong to severe storms
across southern CO late this afternoon. This includes two separate
areas, along and west of Leadville to Alamosa, and then the I-25
corridor. Upstream development over southwest CO continues to move
across the southwest mountains and into the San Luis Valley. This
development is strongly forced and still moving through a highly
sheared and moist/unstable environment. Given this setup, don't see
any reason why this won't continue to move through the San Luis
Valley and quite possibly be severe. No change in thinking, with
damaging winds to 60 mph the main hazard.

The previously mentioned MCV continues to move through the eastern
plains at this time, supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. While some potential for a strong storm or two
remains possible across the eastern plains late this afternoon,
strongest ascent will continue to lift out the area. This should
support weakening intensity, which is already noted with latest
radar imagery. In the wake of this MCV, subsidence which is evident
with substantial clearing across the I-25 corridor has been the
trend. While this is limiting development and may continue to limit
development here in the very near term, this shouldn't remain for
too long. What has been occurring with this clearing is decent
warming with steepening lapse rates. So, the development which will
be approaching from the mountain valleys could still continue over
the southern mountains and into parts of the I-25 corridor. While
any development moving into the I-25 corridor could possibly be on
the stronger side, it will be moving away from the higher
instability and shear. Will continue to keep a close eye on trends,
given that there could be some potential for isolated strong wind
gusts with any storm.

Storms across all of the area diminish later this evening, though
scattered showers will likely remain. A general drying trend is
expected moving forward into Monday, with dry weather expected over
much of the area. Higher dewpoints look to remain in place across
the eastern plain Monday afternoon though, along with instability
axis. Upstream energy looks to move across this axis during the
afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development appearing
possible over the eastern plains. These locations will be on the
edge of the stronger flow, with higher shear remaining to the west.
Nonetheless, shear doesn't appear to be overly weak. So, will
continue to closely monitor the possibility for a few strong to
potentially severe storms over the eastern plains Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Key messages:

1) Plume of monsoonal moisture streaming across the Four Corners
region and Colorado will make for a daily chance of afternoon and
evening convection through the upcoming week.

Monday night...As the ridge of high pressure to the east continues
to edge eastward, and the northern low pressure system pushes across
MT and the Dakotas, the plume of moisture laying across Colorado
will thin and get stretched out. There will be enough available
moisture for isolated activity to continue across the eastern plains
through the evening, with little activity expected over the higher
terrain as skies partially clear from the west. Look for overnight
low temps in the 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for
the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Another upper disturbance takes form over CA
starting on Tue, while the eastern ridge of high pressure begins to
retrograde back to the west. This will consolidate and redirect the
monsoonal moisture plume once again across the Four Corners,
producing a resurgence of shower and storm activity across the
forecast area beginning Tu aftn and lasting into Wed. Meanwhile, a
weak cold front is forecast to push into eastern CO early Tue
morning. The combination of cooler air pushing in, along with the
expected increasing cloud cover and precip chances, will produce
slightly cooler temps for a couple of days. Plan on highs in the 70s
for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains.

Thursday through Saturday...The high pressure to the east flattens
and migrates back westward, creating a somewhat weak zonal flow
across Colorado. This will trap the monsoonal moisture plume across
the region and allow for isolated to scattered pcpn chances for all
area and likely pops for the mt peaks each day. Long range models
continue to indicate warmer temps, with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the
plains.

Sunday...The high pressure ridge builds back to the west, producing
northwest flow aloft across Colorado and allowing a cold front to
push into eastern CO late Sat night. Convection chances increase
across all of the area, with about 10 degrees of cooling across the
eastern plains for the aftn. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area over the
next 24 hours. However, plume of monsoonal moisture across the
Four Corners and western half of Colorado will keep mts, high
valleys and I-25 Corridor under threat of convection along with
S-SW wind gusts of 25-30 kts until 03z-05z this evening. This
includes the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur from KALS and
westward. Activity will push east later tonight and diminish, with
isolated activity then expected across the southern mts and
eastern plains Monday aftn.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE