Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Pueblo, CO

616 
WWUS55 KPUB 062210
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
410 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

COC089-062300-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-220606T2300Z/
Otero CO-
410 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN OTERO COUNTY...

At 408 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over La Junta, 
moving east at 25 mph. Another severe thunderstorm is expected to 
enter the warning area from Crowley County after 430PM MDT.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
La Junta, North La Junta, Rocky Ford, Swink, Cheraw and Higbee. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 10361 3812 10377 3811 10362 3817 10362
      3818 10340 3782 10340 3776 10341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 274DEG 23KT 3796 10357 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Cohen/KTS

580 
WWUS55 KPUB 062249
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
449 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

COC089-062300-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-220606T2300Z/
Otero CO-
449 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN OTERO COUNTY...

At 449 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Las
Animas, or 13 miles east of North La Junta, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Cheraw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 10346 3804 10353 3817 10354 3818 10340
      3787 10340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 270DEG 20KT 3796 10328 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KTS/Cohen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

Key Messages:
1) Potential for severe thunderstorms today southeast plains

2) Higher based convection possible out west with gusty wind
potential

3) Spotty critical to near critical fire weather conditions southern
portions of the San Luis Valley this afternoon and evening

Westerly flow aloft will continue across Colorado with weak
perturbations embedded in the flow passing to the north.  This will
provide subtle forcing and some mid/high based moisture for
convection across northern portions of the area this afternoon and
evening.  Meanwhile at the surface outflow from evening
thunderstorms across the central plains is working its way westward
across the southeast CO plains with surface dew points ranging from
the low 60s near the KS border and across Baca county, to mid 40s
along the I-25 corridor. Satellite RGB products show low clouds and
fog across the far southeast plains were T/Td spreads are within a
few degrees.

Surface based heating will act in concert with subtle forcing to
trigger another round of thunderstorms across the area today.  Model
soundings show moisture a little more high based than yesterday,
even out east as mixing decreases dew points into the low 40s to low
50s.  HREF ensemble mean CAPE shows values up to 1000 J/kg. Ample
deep layer shear values in the 40-50 kt range will be sufficient for
storm organization as convection develops over the northern and
eastern mountains around noon and push off into the adjacent plains.
Dew points will be higher today for the I-25 corridor with values in
the lower to mid 40s vs yesterday's values in the upper 20s to lower
30s.  Thus the severe thunderstorm risk area will expand westward
today vs yesterday across the southeast plains with the area of
greatest concern east of a line from roughly Calhan to Kim.  Hail up
to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 65 mph will be
possible with the stronger storms with CAMS placing strongest
development across eastern portions of the Palmer Divide and across
the eastern plains during the mid afternoon and evening. While dew
point return improves farther west into the I-25 corridor, dew
points appear to mix out more for the eastern plains vs yesterday.
Instead of values in the mid 50s to lower 60s yesterday, they are
more likely to drop back into the upper 40s to lower 50s resulting
in lower CAPE and higher LCLs.  Still some higher based supercells
will be possible as storms move east and encounter higher CAPE with
large hail and damaging winds possible.  Early morning thunderstorm
outlook has slight risk across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca
counties which looks about right.  Although can't rule out an
isolated tornado, this looks to be a low end risk day unless
updrafts can interact with a boundary.

Frontal boundary reinforced by thunderstorm outflows will make a
strong push into the southeast plains this evening which will keep
thunderstorms going into the night across the southeast plains.  A
more concerted push of higher dew points will spread back westward
tonight which will set the stage for the potential for stronger
convection on Tuesday.  Will need to watch the far eastern counties
closely through 2 AM for lingering potential for severe
thunderstorms as models show strengthening low level jet nosing into
the far southeast plains with low level easterlies increasing from
outflows in KS.  Hodographs showed some increasing low level
helicity around 06z-09z across Baca county in the 00z NAM12 run with
significant elevated CAPE and little capping.  06z runs have shifted
these parameters farther east.  But will need to watch closely for a
lingering severe threat a little past midnight for far eastern
areas.

Otherwise, temperatures today should be a little cooler than
yesterday out east and similar to yesterday out west.  Still looking
at spotty critical to near critical fire weather conditions across
the southern San Luis Valley today as gusty afternoon winds and
lower humidity values continue for that region.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

Key Messages:

1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms likely Tuesday afternoon
across the eastern plains, with all hazards of severe weather
possible.

2) Storm chances continue Wednesday and Thursday, with more chances
of strong to severe storms.

3) Overall drying and warming trend expected for southern Colorado
going into the upcoming weekend.

Tuesday... The start of the long term period will bring active
weather to southern Colorado, with thunderstorm chances in the
afternoon, particularly across the eastern plains. Synoptically,
flow aloft will be more zonal, with a weak short wave embedded
within that flow. Shorter range ensembles models, such as the SREF
and HREF, are good agreement about this, leading to greater
confidence in the forecast. As the short wave passes by the Colorado
region, synoptic dynamics and flow aloft will modestly increase over
the region. With the increased flow aloft, orographics over the
mountains will increase, which will be the primary trigger for
thunderstorms. Shear will also increase across the region, with 0-6
km bulk shear 45+ kts. At the surface, an amorphous area of low
pressure across the southwestern parts of Colorado and high pressure
across the central plains will allow for a tighter pressure gradient
to develop over southern Colorado's eastern plains. This gradient
will induce a mass flux to the north-northwest, and with that,
advect better moisture into the forecast area. There's still some
uncertainty about the quality of the moisture return and how much of
it will mix out during the day, but leaning more on ensemble models
at this time, it's likely at least 50 dew points will overspread
much of the eastern plains, with upper 40 dew points closer to the
mountains. With the increase in moisture, instability is also
expected to climb, with MLCAPE likely 1500+ J/kg over most of the
eastern plains. With thunderstorms expected to initiate off the
mountains and move east into the above parameter space, strong to
severe thunderstorms are likely. With the shear in place, a cellular
mode is favored, with a couple supercell structures likely. Current
thinking is that the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa areas will be the
primary zones with strong thunderstorm development, which is
supported in CAMs and the HREF. With the environment in place, all
hazards will be possible with these storms, with damaging winds 60-
70 mph, hail around 2 in, possibly even larger, and a tornado or two
possible. Something to be mindful of, if an outflow boundary
leftover from precipitation that occurred Monday is present, which
is a definite possibility, then the tornado threat would become
enhanced along that boundary. Another thing to watch trends in will
be the synoptic influence, as weak height rises may be taking place
Tuesday afternoon behind the short wave, which could hinder
thunderstorm development and maturation. Otherwise across the
forecast area, conditions will remain dry for those not impacted by
one of the isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will also be near to
slightly above average across most of southern Colorado.

Wednesday - Thursday... The middle part of the week will continue
the active weather pattern. Overall westerly flow will persist
across Colorado, with more weak short waves embedded in that flow.
This will again keep the flow aloft and shear elevated across
southern Colorado. Moisture return will also take place each day,
which will also means that instability will increase each day as
well. Given more shear, moisture, and instability, afternoon
thunderstorms are likely each day, particularly across the eastern
plains, some of which could be strong to severe. Other than more
storm chances, Wednesday will have near to slightly below average
temperatures, mostly across the eastern plains, and Thursday will
see a quick warm up to above average for most of southern Colorado.

Friday - Sunday... For the end of the work week and through the
weekend, longer range ensemble models, such as the GEFS and EPS, are
in agreement about a large ridge of high pressure developing over
the southwestern US and then expanding across southern Colorado.
This pattern will lower precipitation chances considerably across
most of the area, with the exception being the mountains, which may
still have daily afternoon thunderstorm chances. Temperatures with
that pattern would also be expected to continue the warming trend,
with above average temperatures expected for most of southern
Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

The prevailing flight category for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB will be
VFR throughout the forecast period, however showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of KCOS and
KPUB this afternoon through the early morning hours tomorrow.
Gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow winds are expected at KCOS
and KPUB. If a thunderstorms develops over either of the
terminals, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected. A transition to
vicinity showers are expected during the late evening to overnight
period. After the showers pass by during the overnight, VFR
conditions will once again be certain.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...SKELLY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-071800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and along
the Palmer Divide this afternoon, with storms expected to move
southeast across the immediate adjacent plains and out across the
far southeast plains later this afternoon and evening. A few
severe thunderstorms will be possible between 2 PM and 10 PM,
generally east of line from Calhan to Kim. Hail up to 2 inches in
diameter and wind gusts up to 65 mph will be the primary storm
risks. Although the risk is low, an isolated tornado can not be
ruled out across the far eastern counties. Thunderstorms may
continue overnight and into the early morning hours of Tuesday for
portions of the southeast plains along and behind a frontal
boundary.

Isolated high based showers and thunderstorms will also be possible
across the central and southeast mountains and adjacent valleys
this afternoon and early evening. However, these storms will be
more likely to produce virga, lightning and gusty winds up to 45
mph, but little measurable rainfall.

Near critical fire weather conditions will again be possible across
southern portions of the San Luis Valley this afternoon and early
evening due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. However, these
conditions are expected to remain brief and localized.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
likely across the eastern plains Tuesday. The main hazards will be
cloud to ground lightning, damaging wind gusts 60-70 mph, large hail
around 2 inches and possibly an isolated tornado or two. Area burn
scars will also need to be monitored closely for the risk of flash
flooding.

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
possible across the eastern mountains and plains for Wednesday
through Sunday. The main hazards will be cloud to ground lightning
and wind gusts to 40 mph.

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions
of the San Luis Valley Wednesday, and then more widespread across
southern Colorado Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

23/SKELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
133 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

COZ081-084-085-062000-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
133 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern El Paso
County through 200 PM MDT...

At 132 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gleneagle, or 14 miles north of Colorado Springs, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Gleneagle around 140 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 10473 3901 10495 3908 10494 3913 10475
      3913 10472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 271DEG 17KT 3904 10488

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTS/Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
209 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

COZ094-099-062100-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
209 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Baca and
southeastern Las Animas Counties through 300 PM MDT...

At 209 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles northwest of Kim to 8 miles northwest
of Kenton. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pritchett and Kim.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 10383 3764 10302 3700 10254 3700 10327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 239DEG 27KT 3744 10349 3700 10306

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Cohen/KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
229 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

COZ086-093-062100-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
229 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Otero
and southeastern Pueblo Counties through 300 PM MDT...

At 229 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southwest of Fowler, or 30 miles southeast of Pueblo, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Otero
and southeastern Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 10437 3795 10437 3802 10400 3781 10400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 265DEG 19KT 3793 10426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Cohen/KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
253 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

COZ093-097-062145-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
253 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Otero
and southern Bent Counties through 345 PM MDT...

At 253 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
developing along a line extending from 6 miles west of Higbee to 24
miles southeast of North La Junta. Movement was north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 10339 3789 10275 3765 10277 3765 10361
      3770 10367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 202DEG 22KT 3774 10356 3766 10335

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Cohen/KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

COZ086-093-062145-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
302 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Otero
and southeastern Pueblo Counties through 345 PM MDT...

At 302 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Fowler, or 27 miles west of La Junta, moving east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Ford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 10406 3804 10405 3811 10368 3791 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 259DEG 22KT 3797 10405

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Cohen/KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
311 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

COZ081-084-085-062145-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
311 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern El Paso
County through 345 PM MDT...

At 310 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorm developing over southwestern and central Colorado
Springs, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Fountain, Air Force Academy, Manitou Springs,
Stratmoor, Chipita Park, Fort Carson, Security, Peterson AFB,
Security-Widefield, Cimarron Hills and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10487 3892 10501 3903 10472 3875 10458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 254DEG 20KT 3884 10485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Cohen/KTS