Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1158 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Main update this morning was to increase winds through early
afternoon, and adjust pops through this evening. Front which has
been moving through the area can be seen pushing south through
far southern CO. With FROPA and in its wake, gusts up to around 45
mph have occurred. Think these similar winds/gusts will continue
for a couple of more hours, especially with widespread pressure
rises continuing across much of Colorado. Didn't really make too
many changes to the highs for today, though I wonder if some sites
north of Highway 50 may be slightly cooler given the extent of
the CAA.

Still keeping a close eye on overall trends for strong to severe
storms across the area this afternoon. Post frontal air mass will
likely help keep precip development minimal over the plains going
into this afternoon, while scattered storms continue to develop
over and near the higher terrain. This development over and near
the terrain could have some stronger development with gusty winds
and heavy rainfall the main threats. Will continue to see how this
post frontal air over the plains recovers going into the
afternoon and evening given the dry air in place. Trends have
suggested a more southward placement of development later this
afternoon, and these trends could continue and likely focus the
stronger development closer to the CO and NM border. In this area,
still think the risk for severe storms, large hail and damaging
winds, remains. Elsewhere, HRRR continues to show isolated
development briefly across the Pikes Peak region this afternoon
and can't completely rule this out given the deep easterly flow in
place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 421 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Key Messages:

1) Cold front racing southward through the eastern plains this
morning will bring cooler air and increasing rainfall chances to the
area today and tonight.

2) Potential for strong storms and heavy rain this afternoon and
evening, especially Walsenburg/Trinidad/La Veta/Raton Pass area and
the Spring Burn Scar.

Upper ridge over Colorado flattens today, as strong short wave
trough drops southeastward into the northern High Plains. This wave
will push a fairly strong cold front through the eastern plains this
morning, with gusty north winds at midday gradually turning more
easterly by late afternoon/early evening. Cooler air even gets deep
enough to push westward through the lower passes of the Sangres, and
a period of gusty east winds over the San Luis Valley this evening
will result.

Main questions for today will be amount/location of instability
available for convection on the eastern plains, and subsequent
location on heavier rainfall and potential severe weather. Some
fairly significant differences in 00z/06z model solutions regarding
post frontal instability on the plains, with various versions of the
NAM suggesting incoming air mass will end up too cool/too stable for
much convection from the Arkansas River northward, with storms
staying west and south of both Colorado Springs and Pueblo. GFS is
farther north, with stronger storms and potential heavy rainfall in
both metro areas from late afternoon into the evening. Latest HRRR
suggests a compromise solution, with initial round of storms moving
off the mountains into the I-25 corridor late in the afternoon, then
stronger storms shift quickly south in the evening. For now, will
keep relatively high pops in place for the northern half of the
area, though current QPF forecast north of the Arkansas River will
remain rather light. More certainty for stronger storms and heavier
rain farther south, especially over the southern Sangres and srn I-
25 corridor from Walsenburg to Raton Pass, where instability will be
greater and mid level moisture slightly deeper as well. While a
couple severe storms will be possible, main risk looks to be flash
flooding, with many models pointing to the Spring burn scar in the
afternoon, then Raton Pass and ern Las Animas County in the evening
as areas to watch, and may need a flash flood watch for the burn
scar later this morning as evolution of daytime instability becomes
clearer. Remaining mountains and valleys will see fairly widespread
convection this afternoon as moisture increases over the area, and
will have to watch for at least some brief pockets of heavy rainfall
into the evening.

Overall, like the position(plains from Pueblo southward) of the
marginal risk of severe storms in the SWODY1, and day one heavy
rainfall outlook slight risk catches the bulk of the heavy rainfall
threat, though northern portion (north of Highway 50) is more
questionable than the southern part. Max temps today will be much
cooler over most of the plains behind the cold front, though went
with blended guidance, as NAM MOS temps looked way too cool.
Overnight, thunderstorms gradually sink southward into northern NM,
with precip gradually ending from n-s after midnight as better lift
shifts south and upslope flow fades on the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 421 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Key messages:

1) Daily chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over
the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor.

2) Above normal high temperatures forecast for Wednesday through
Friday.

Tuesday...The axis of the upper ridge overhead will be located over
the Four Corners, while at the surface southeast winds in the
morning will continue to push llvl moisture up against the eastern
slopes of the mts. Models point to lingering activity through the
morning hours across the southern tier, a holdover from the night
before, then as the day progresses convection once again initiates
over the higher terrain and then drifts east through the aftn and
eve. Abundant llvl moisture will produce CAPEs of 1500 to 2000 j/kg
by the aftn, primarily focused along the eastern slopes of the mts
as well as the Raton Mesa. Bulk shear will be okay at around 35 kts,
though the location of the front well south in New Mexico robs the
forecast area of better shear. Surface winds will then shift to a
more southerly direction by late aftn and eve. Upslope flow,
increased cloud cover and lingering cooler air will provide the
region with one more day of near normal temps before the heat
returns, so look for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the
high valleys, and in the 80s to near 90F for the plains.

Wednesday through Friday...The upper ridge of high pressure will
position directly overhead, bringing a return of the heat as well as
trapping monsoon moisture across the state. Models indicate that the
moisture plume will continue to feed up across the Four Corners and
into eastern UT and western CO, producing likely or even categorical
pops for the higher terrain each aftn and eve. The I-25 Corridor
will see isolated to scattered convection chances each day, while
dry conditions persist for the far eastern plains near the Kansas
border. Plan on maximum temps each day in the 80s for the high
valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains.

Saturday and Sunday...An upper disturbance pushes east across Canada
and the northern states late Friday, while the upper ridge slides a
bit to the west. This northern feature will push a cold front south
into eastern CO early Saturday, cooling high temps both Sat and Sun
by about 5 degrees as well as bringing isolated convection chances
back to the eastern plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

VFR and dry conditions will continue at the start of the period,
though do think precipitation chances will be on the rise later
this afternoon into the evening. This will especially be the case
for ALS, where higher confidence is in place for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to impact the terminal. For COS and PUB, it
still looks as if precip development will be minimal, though an
isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out later this afternoon
into the evening. So, did leave the VCSH in the forecast for COS
and PUB but the overall duration of this potential may be shorter.
Precip will finally depart to the south of the terminals later
this evening, with dry weather then expected. The stronger
northerly winds and gusts in place for COS and PUB will diminish
through the afternoon hours, with a trend towards a more easterly
direction. Winds across ALS will likely become more erratic this
afternoon with precip development.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1208 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-121815-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1208 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop early this
afternoon over and near the mountains, with activity spreading
across most valleys. Gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours
will be the main threats with this development. Later this
afternoon into this evening, expect thunderstorms to move into the
far southern I-25 corridor and far southeast plains, south of
Highway 50. Severe storms remain possible for areas near the
Colorado and New Mexico border, with wind gusts to 60 mph and
hail up to the size of half dollars still the main threats.

There will also be a risk of flash flooding this afternoon and
evening over the southern Sangre de Cristo Range and southern
Interstate 25 corridor, and areas around Walsenburg, Trinidad,
Raton Pass and La Veta as well as the Spring Burn Scar will all be
susceptible to flash flooding with any stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Abundant low level moisture will produce increased thunderstorm
chances across the entire area for Tuesday. Main thunderstorm
threats will be locally heavy rain, strong wind gusts up to 55
mph, hail up to one inch in diameter and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.

Thunderstorms are likely across the higher terrain Wednesday
through Friday, with just isolated to scattered activity expected
along the I-25 Corridor.

Similar thunderstorm activity is forecast for Saturday and
Sunday, though isolated convection will return to the far eastern
plains near the Kansas border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

RODRIGUEZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
152 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

COZ081-082-112015-
Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
152 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Teller and
western El Paso Counties through 215 PM MDT...

At 152 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Divide, or 17 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Green Mountain Falls, Divide, Chipita Park and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 10522 3898 10514 3891 10498 3883 10508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 294DEG 8KT 3891 10513

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CSS/Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
214 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

COZ081-112030-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
214 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Teller
County through 230 PM MDT...

At 214 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Divide, or 19 miles northwest of Colorado Springs. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Divide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 10511 3892 10521 3900 10516 3896 10505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 207DEG 1KT 3894 10515

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cohen/CSS