Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1223 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Updated to add showers and thunderstorms across the far southeast
Plains this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Key Messages:

1) Monsoon moisture remains across the area, leading to more showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Main concerns will be
heavy rain and gusty winds.

Today and Tonight...

A better surge of monsoonal moisture will move over the area today,
allowing for another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
beneath the upper-level ridge. Instability and lift will be fueled
by a combination of daytime heating and a brief disturbance
translating through the upper-level flow, coming out to 500-700 J/kg
of CAPE over most of the higher terrain and I-25 corridor. Looking
further east, CAPE increases by a bit closer to the KS border,
exceeding 1000 J/kg or more in most of the high-res model guidance.
Storms are expected to fire over the higher terrain early this
afternoon, moving northeast with the steering flow. Flow at the mid
to upper levels will be a bit stronger than yesterday, allowing for
slightly faster storm motion and more shear in the environment
overall. This will somewhat decrease the flood threat while
increasing convective storm potential. However, based on the latest
guidance, most of the burn scars will still need to be watched for
potential impacts. Trailing cells with heavier rainfall could still
produce a flash flood. Storms will move east-northeast, becoming
scattered over most of the eastern plains through the rest of the
afternoon, potentially growing in intensity as they move into better
air. The stronger to severe storms of the day are most likely over
northern El Paso County and our far eastern plains, where
instability and shear are the greatest. Northern El Paso may also be
assisted by some local orographic effects. The main concerns for
strong to severe storms will be small hail and strong, gusty outflow
winds, indicated by large dewpoint depressions near the surface
giving us inverted-V soundings in several locations.

A few lighter showers will likely stick around over the plains into
the early overnight hours, dissipating before Thursday morning.
Wednesday's highs will be comparable to Tuesday, if a few degrees
cooler, with 80s to low-90s over the majority of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Key Messages:

1) Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue.

2) Slight decrease in temperatures Thursday before things warm up
this weekend.

3) Drier and warmer next week.

Thursday will be seeing another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms as another disturbance moves through the ridge
overhead. Steering flow at the mid-levels will be a bit more breezy
and a bit more westerly, allowing more precipitation to make it down
to the lower terrain and the eastern plains overall throughout the
day. Current analysis shows decent mid-level moisture and conditions
favorable for localized heavy rainfall, specifically over the higher
terrain and the Raton Mesa area. Burn scar flash-flooding will
continue to be a concern, even with better steering flow keeping
things moving. Daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler than
Wednesday, mostly sitting in the upper-80s to around 90.

Starting Friday and into next week, the main axis of the upper-level
ridge will begin to retrograde slightly westward while also
amplifying, leading to an overall warmer and drier pattern under the
roof of high pressure. High temperatures over most of the area, but
specifically the eastern plains, will increase from the low-90s to
over 100 around the start of next week. Looking at moisture, the
monsoon signal remains, and the lingering moisture in the region
will continue to support daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms,
at least through the start of next week. However, after Monday,
northwest flow is expected to set in overhead, which may actually
push some of that better monsoon moisture out of our forecast area.
Current long range deterministic and much of the ensemble guidance
points towards a weakening of the monsoon signal and a drying of the
region. While this would give us a rest from the flash flooding
concerns, it could very well give rise to critical fire weather
conditions next week. Will have to monitor the evolution of the
ensemble solutions over the next few days, to see if that signal
becomes more persistent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Monsoonal moisture remains in place across the state with scattered
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected across the area
once again today. With a slightly more southwest flow aloft, storms
will move east northeast today, across the adjacent plains through
the late afternoon and evening hours. With that said, mainly VFR
conditions expected at all taf sites with chances of storms moving
across the terminals from 21z to 03Z, with the best chance of storms
impacting the terminals being at COS. Storm impacts include gusty
outflow winds to around 40kts, locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for small hail. Storms chances to generally diminish and
end after 03Z with clearing skies through the rest of the evening
and into the overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1232 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-071745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1232 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening over most of south central and southeast
Colorado. Storms will form over the mountains late this morning
and early this afternoon, with storms expected to spread east
across the high mountain valleys and I-25 Corridor this afternoon,
and then continue out across the far southeast plains through the
late afternoon and evening hours.

The main storm threats include localized heavy rainfall that could
cause flash flooding, especially over area burn scars, with gusty
winds up to 45 mph and small hail possible with the stronger storms.
One or two storms that move out across the Palmer Divide and the
southeast plains could become severe, producing strong outflow
winds to around 60 mph and hail to around the size of quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through the
weekend. Localized heavy rainfall will be possible, with the potential
for flash flooding over burn scar areas. Increasing temperatures
and drier conditions are expected this weekend into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
117 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

COZ084-062000-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
117 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern El Paso
County through 200 PM MDT...

At 116 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peyton, or 26 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15
mph.  A second strong storm is located near Calhan.  Both storms
will track generally eastward.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan and Ramah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 10414 3900 10432 3909 10455 3913 10455
      3913 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 269DEG 11KT 3912 10449

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
136 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

COZ065>067-069-062030-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft CO-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft CO-
136 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Rio
Grande and south central Saguache Counties through 230 PM MDT...

At 136 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Del Norte to 11 miles
northwest of Saguache. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Saguache and La Garita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 10637 3782 10619 3821 10610 3821 10636
      3771 10660
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 271DEG 16KT 3775 10646 3818 10632

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
159 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

COZ084-062015-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
159 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern El Paso
County through 215 PM MDT...

At 159 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Simla, or 23 miles southwest of Limon, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern El
Paso County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10405 3904 10406 3905 10415 3913 10410
      3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 295DEG 13KT 3908 10406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

kam