Alert archive / Colorado / Red Flag Warnings in 2022

Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Pueblo, CO

March 3, 202210 counties in Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this red flag warning at Mar 3, 2022, 2:49 PM MST for 10 counties in Colorado. It took effect at Mar 4, 2022, 11:00 AM MST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 3, 2022, 2:49 PM MST (21:49 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 4, 2022, 11:00 AM MST
Expired
Mar 4, 2022, 8:00 PM MST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Pueblo, CO

Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 212 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2022-03-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2022-03-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 3 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2803 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
76 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

524 
WWUS85 KPUB 032149
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM MST this
evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire 
Weather Zones 233...235...236...and 237, which includes eastern 
Las Animas, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 11 AM to 8 PM MST 
Friday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather 
Zones 226 through 237, which includes all of the southeast 
plains...

COZ233-235>237-041400-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220304T0300Z/
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
249 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
233...235...236 AND 237...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
233...235...236 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 233...235...236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226>232-234-041400-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
249 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
226...227...228...229...230...231...232 AND 234...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226...227...228...229... 
  230...231...232 and 234.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
166 
WWUS85 KPUB 040253
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
753 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...A Red Flag Warning expires at 8 PM MST this evening for Fire 
Weather Zones 233...235...236...and 237, which includes eastern 
Las Animas, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties...

...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday 
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zones 
226 through 237, which includes all of the southeast plains...

COZ233-235>237-041900-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220304T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
753 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 233... 235...236 AND 237... 
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 233...235...236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 233...235...236 and 237.

* Winds for Friday...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 
  mph.

* Relative Humidity Friday...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226>232-234-041900-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
753 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226...227...228...229...230...231...232
AND 234...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226...227...228...229... 
  230...231...232 and 234.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hodanish
505 
WWUS85 KPUB 040339
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
839 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zones
226 through 237, which includes all of the southeast plains...

COZ226>237-041945-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
839 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...
236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226...227...228...229... 
  230...231...232...233...234...235...236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hodanish
526 
WWUS85 KPUB 041054
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
354 AM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zones
226 through 237, which includes all of the southeast plains...

...A Fire Weather Watch has been issued from Saturday morning
through Saturday afternoon for gusty winds and low relative
humidity for fire weather zones 230, 233, and 237, which includes
Las Animas and Baca Counties...

COZ230-233-237-050300-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0005.220305T1700Z-220306T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
354 AM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 230...233 AND 237... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 230...233 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 230...233 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ226>229-231-232-234>236-050300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
354 AM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226...227...228...229...231...232...234...235
AND 236...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226...227...228...229... 
  231...232...234...235 and 236.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
492 
WWUS85 KPUB 042118
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
218 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM MST this evening
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zones 
226 through 237, which includes all of the southeast plains...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 10 AM to 5 PM Saturday
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for fire weather zones 
230, 233, and 237, which includes Las Animas and Baca Counties...

COZ230-233-237-051330-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0005.220305T1700Z-220306T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0006.220305T1700Z-220306T0000Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T0300Z/
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
218 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 230...233 AND 237...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 230...233 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo continues a Red Flag Warning
through 8 PM tonight and has issued a Red Flag Warning for Saturday
from 10 AM to 5 PM. The Fire Weather Watch for Saturday is no longer
in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 230...233 and 237.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Gusty west winds will continue across the southern tier
  of Colorado through the early evening, with winds diminishing
  through late evening. Gusty west winds are expected to pick up 
  again Saturday morning and continue through the afternoon. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226>229-231-232-234>236-050300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
218 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
226...227...228...229...231...232...234...235 AND 236...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226...227...228...229... 
  231...232...234...235 and 236.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
123 
WWUS85 KPUB 050237
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
737 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

...A Red Flag Warning will expire at 8 PM MST this evening for 
Fire Weather Zones 226 through 237, which includes all of the 
southeast plains...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 10 AM to 5 PM Saturday
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for fire weather zones
230, 233, and 237, which includes Las Animas and Baca Counties...

COZ230-233-237-051845-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0006.220305T1700Z-220306T0000Z/
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
737 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 230...233 AND 237...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 230...233 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 230...233 and 237.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Timing...Gusty west winds will continue across the southern 
  tier of Colorado through the early evening, with winds 
  diminishing through late evening. Gusty west winds are 
  expected to pick up again Saturday morning and continue 
  through the afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226>229-231-232-234>236-050345-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
737 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
226...227...228...229...231...232...234...235 AND 236...

$$

Hodanish

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Mar 3, 10:41 AM MST, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 3, 10:41 AM MST, 4 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1041 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

1) Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the far
southeast plains this afternoon into early evening. Spotty critical
fire weather conditions are possible across the far southern I-25
corridor. Red Flag Warning expanded to include E. Las Animas, Bent,
and Prowers counties.

2) Well above normal temperatures continue across southern Colorado
today, with record breaking max temps possible at COS, PUB, and ALS.

Another very warm day expected across southern Colorado, with record
breaking max temps appearing likely at all three climate locations
today. Another mild start to the morning along with sunny skies
across southern Colorado, as upper ridge builds from the west. This
ridge will move overhead today, supporting additional warming to the
already warm air mass in place. Temps at 700mb still look to
approach the 7-8C mark later today, which is a very spring like air
mass. In all, expect well above normal temps today along with record
breaking max temps (see Climate Section). Previous forecast high
temps for today were still on track, and only made minor upward
adjustment in spots. Widespread 70s and 80s are expected over the
plains, with mid to even upper 60s expected over the mountain
valleys. While temps are mild this morning, expect even milder temps
tonight across the plains. Given the air mass in place tonight and
some steadier winds, wouldn't be surprised to see many spots over
the plains remain in the 50s tonight into early Friday morning.

Fire weather concerns continue across the plains this afternoon into
this evening, and given recent trends, did expand the current Red
Flag Warning to include eastern Las Animas, Bent, and Prowers
counties. Above normal warmth, very low RH values of 5-10% and gusty
south southeast winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions
across the far southeast plains. The winds may take some time to
note increases later today, but do anticipate gusts of 30 to 35 mph
by mid afternoon and continuing into early evening. Did debate
adding Kiowa into the Warning, but at this time, the stronger winds
appear to develop later in this location. Do think that a couple
hour window of critical fire weather conditions will be possibe
though. Lastly, the far southern I-25 corridor will likely note
occasional and spotty higher winds/gusts this afternoon. At this
time, it's not enough to support adding this area into the Red Flag
Warning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

Key messages:

1) Due to strong and gusty winds, coupled with low relative humidity
values, fire weather conditions are expected across the entire
plains on Friday afternoon through early evening. There will also be
fire weather concerns for Saturday afternoon as well across the
southern plains, mainly east of the I-25 corridor and south of US-50.

2) Due to the well amplified ridge ahead of the trough currently
overhead and downsloping winds, record high temperatures will be
possible across some areas, especially the plains and Lower Arkansas
River Valley.

3) A broad longwave trough will move in over the region by Friday
and going into the early part of next week, which will allow for
several major shortwave troughs to impact southeast Colorado with
colder temperatures, snow, and gusty winds from Friday through
Monday. There will also be a slight chance of thundersnow showers
over the Central Mountains late Friday evening into Saturday morning.

4) High pressure conditions will temporarily build in by the mid
part of next week, although the longwave trough will still be in
place so temperatures will remain cool.

Detailed discussion:

Friday through Saturday...

As the trough continues to propagate eastward from the western CONUS
and the associated low begins to approach the region, all models
have continued to be in generally good agreement that the position
of the first low pressure center will eject out somewhere over
northeastern Colorado. The well-amplified ridging ahead of the
longwave trough moving in this weekend will allow for very warm
southerly winds to be in place and therefore record highs will be
possible (see climate section). The HRRR and NAM Nest have
continuously shown in previous model runs that winds are going to
be strong across nearly all locations over the plains. Due to
this, winds have been adjusted up using a blend of ADJMAV, ADJMET,
and NBM 90th percentile for both Friday and Saturday. Dewpoints
needed to be lowered based off of CONSMOS data, as they were too
high for the downsloping nature of the winds for both days. Low RH
values of around 9 to 11 percent, and winds reaching criteria
will make fire weather conditions likely across nearly all of the
plains on Friday, and across the southern plains on Saturday
afternoon, due to the post-frontal westerly winds as the low
pressure system moves over the area.

The position of the low still looks to track over the same general
area of of northeast Colorado with very little variance between the
models. Colder air will remain to the north with a very slow moving
cold front, therefore many areas will still be relatively warmer
over the plains, although cooler from where they were on Friday.
Snow showers will begin later in the evening over the Central
Mountains. There is going to be some instability associated with the
upper level low associated with this system, along with some PVA
over the southwestern portion of the CWA. CAPE values look to be
anywhere from 100 to 200 J/kg, given these values, there will be the
possibility of some thundersnow showers possible. These snow showers
will spread over into the eastern mountains and adjacent plains
later in the morning on Saturday. Winds over the plains will shift
from a southerly direction to a more westerly direction and continue
to increase throughout the day. Best chance of snow for the adjacent
plains will be over the Palmer Divide, and very little chance for
the rest areas west of the I-25 corridor.

Sunday through Monday...

Models still reflect generally good agreement with the position of
the next upper level low that is going to transition over the area
on Sunday. There is going to be better isentropic upgliding
associated with this that will provide a better chance for snow over
the plains. Colder air advection will also occur with this secondary
upper level closed low as it meanders behind the other exiting
shortwave and move out from over the Four Corners area. There will
also be another upper level low the drops down rapidly into Monday,
and the deterministic models have been fairly consistent showing
this moving over western Colorado and providing a better chance for
snow over the mountains, and only a small chance of snow over the
plains.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

High pressure will subsequently build in with a return to more
tranquil weather conditions, although remaining cool as the longwave
trough will still be in place overhead. Overall temperatures will
still be slightly below the seasonal average for this time of year.
There will be another major shortwave trough upstream that will
begin to move into the region by late in the day on Wednesday,
however, models are still in a slight disagreement with the timing
and proximity of this trough this far out in the forecast period. It
will be something that will need to be monitored in model data for
continuity in the upcoming days ahead.  -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1034 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

Upper ridge moves to the east today, with increasing southwest
flow aloft across the state. Mid and high level cloudiness will
be on the increase as well over the next 24 hrs. Snow will return
to the Continental Divide by Friday midday, with conditions
degrading to MVFR to IFR over mt passes by the end of the forecast
period. However, much of the forecast area will experience VFR
conditions over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF
sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 431 AM MST Tue Mar 1 2022

Above normal warmth will continue to build across the region today
into Friday, with record high temperatures still possible across
southern Colorado. Below is a list of the record high daily
temperatures, as well as the forecasted high temperatures for
Alamosa, Colorado Springs, and Pueblo.

Record high temperature (year set), and forecast highs:

Alamosa:

March 3...record high: 62 (2009), forecast high for Thursday: 65
March 4...record high: 64 (2016), forecast high for Friday: 63

Colorado Springs:

March 3...record high: 71 (2009), forecast high for Thursday: 74
March 4...record high: 70 (2009), forecast high for Friday: 73

Pueblo:

March 3...record high: 77 (2009), forecast high for Thursday: 80
March 4...record high: 77 (2009), forecast high for Friday: 79

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for COZ226>237.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ233-235>237.

&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...MOORE
CLIMATE...RODRIGUEZ
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 3, 4:55 AM MST, 9 hours 54 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
455 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-041200-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
455 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the far
southeast plains this afternoon into early evening. Spotty critical
fire weather conditions are possible across the far southern I-25
corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

On Friday, above normal temperatures with low relative humidity
values and gusty winds will result in critical fire weather
conditions across all of the plains, mainly east of the I-25
corridor. Critical fire weather conditions will be likely on
Saturday over the southern plains, mainly east of the southern I-25
corridor and south of the US-50.

Snow showers will begin over the Central Mountains on Friday
morning and spread eastward throughout the day. Some show showers
will occur over the Palmer Divide later in the evening and
throughout the morning on Saturday. Snow showers will continue
throughout the weekend and into Monday with some snow over the
plains on Sunday and along the west of the I-25 corridor on
Monday. Light snowfall totals will occur over the plains and more
moderate snowfall totals will occur over the mountains from Friday
through Monday. A few snow showers will occur over the northern
Sawatch range late in the day on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

RODRIGUEZ/STEWARD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 3, 2:59 PM MSTWinter Storm WarningPUBConejos, Mineral, Rio Grande3 days

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Colorado, 2022Every red flag warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.