Alert archive / Colorado / Red Flag Warnings in 2022

Red Flag Warning 44, NWS Pueblo, CO

May 10, 202221 counties in Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this red flag warning at May 10, 2022, 3:03 PM MDT for 21 counties in Colorado. It took effect at May 11, 2022, 10:00 AM MDT. It was in force for 12 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2022, 3:03 PM MDT (21:03 UTC)
In effect from
May 11, 2022, 10:00 AM MDT
Expired
May 11, 2022, 10:00 PM MDT
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Pueblo, CO
All 21 counties

Alamosa County, CO, Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Chaffee County, CO, Conejos County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Custer County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Fremont County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Lake County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Mineral County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Rio Grande County, CO, Saguache County, CO, Teller County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 11, 4:59 PM MDTHAIL 0.883 W Stonington, CO
May 11, 6:08 PM MDTTSTM WND GST 554 Se Stonington, COMESONET STATION DW6957 WALSH.
May 11, 6:10 PM MDTTSTM WND GST 599 S Springfield, COCORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 9 S SPRINGFIELD. ASOS STATION KSPD 8 S SPRINGFIELD.
May 11, 6:10 PM MDTNON-TSTM WND GST 599 S Springfield, COASOS STATION KSPD 8 S SPRINGFIELD.
May 11, 6:56 PM MDTNON-TSTM WND GST 604 Wsw Lamar, COASOS STATION KLAA LAMAR AIRPORT.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 248 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2022-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2022-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 44 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1733 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
620 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

789 
WWUS85 KPUB 102103
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 9 PM Tuesday 
evening for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire 
Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes all of the 
Continental Divide, the San Luis Valley, the Sangre de Cristo 
Mountains, the Wet Mountains, the Wet Mountain Valley, and all of
the southeast Colorado Plains...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday
morning through 10 PM Wednesday evening for strong winds and low 
relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 233 and 235,
which includes all of the Continental Divide, the San Luis 
Valley, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountains, the Wet
Mountain Valley, Teller, El Paso, Fremont, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las
Animas, Crowley, Otero and Bent Counties...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 10 AM Wednesday morning
through 10 PM Wednesday evening for strong winds and low relative
humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 234, 236 and 237, which includes
Kiowa, Prowers and Baca Counties...

...A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 9 AM Thursday morning 
through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and low relative 
humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes 
all of the Continental Divide, San Luis Valley, the Sangre de 
Cristo and Wet Mountain Ranges, the Wet Mountain Valley, and all
of the southeast Colorado Plains...

COZ220>233-235-111315-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0038.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0044.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1500Z-220513T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0043.000000T0000Z-220511T0300Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-
303 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222...225...226...227...228...
229 AND 230...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
220...221...222...223...224...225...226...227...228...229...230...
231...232...233 AND 235...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
220...221...222...223...224...225...226...227...228...229...230...
231...232...233 AND 235...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning has
also been issued from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday. The Fire
Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 
  224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233 and 
  235.

* Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are
  expected from mid morning through the evening, today, Wednesday
  and Thursday.

* Winds...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...near 5 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ234-236-237-111315-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0044.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1500Z-220513T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0043.000000T0000Z-220511T0300Z/
Kiowa County Including Eads-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
303 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
234...236 AND 237...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
234...236 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning has
also been issued from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 234...236 and 237.

* Winds...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are
  expected from mid morning through the evening, today, Wednesday
  and Thursday.

* Relative Humidity...near 5 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
447 
WWUS85 KPUB 110333
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
933 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday
morning through 10 PM Wednesday evening for strong winds and low
relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 233 and
235, which includes all of the Continental Divide, the San Luis
Valley, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountains, the
Wet Mountain Valley, Teller, El Paso, Fremont, Pueblo, Huerfano,
Las Animas, Crowley, Otero and Bent Counties...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 10 AM Wednesday
morning through 10 PM Wednesday evening for strong winds and low
relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 234, 236 and 237, which
includes Kiowa, Prowers and Baca Counties...

...A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 9 AM Thursday morning
through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and low relative
humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes
all of the Continental Divide, San Luis Valley, the Sangre de
Cristo and Wet Mountain Ranges, the Wet Mountain Valley, and all
of the southeast Colorado Plains...

COZ220>237-111945-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0044.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1500Z-220513T0400Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
933 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222...225...226...227...
228...229 AND 230...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222...225...226...227...
228...229 AND 230...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 
  224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...
  234... 235...236 and 237.

* Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are 
  expected from mid morning through the evening, today, 
  Wednesday and Thursday.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
121 
WWUS85 KPUB 111000
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
400 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today from 10 AM through 
10 PM for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire Weather
Zones 220 through 237, which includes the entire National Weather
Service Pueblo's forecast area. DRY LIGHTNING may also occur in 
the far eastern fire weather zones late this afternoon and early 
evening...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 9 AM Thursday 
morning through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and very 
low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, 
which includes the entire National Weather Service Pueblo's 
forecast area...

COZ220>237-120200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0044.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1500Z-220513T0400Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
400 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226...
227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND
237...DRY LIGHTNING may also occur in the far eastern fire weather
zones.

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226...227...
228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 
  224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...
  234... 235...236 and 237.

* Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are
  expected from mid morning through the evening both today and
  Thursday. 

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 2 percent. The lowest relative
  humidity values will occur on Thursday. 

* DRY LIGHTNING...may occur in the far eastern fire weather zones
  late this afternoon and early evening. 

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hodanish
685 
WWUS85 KPUB 112104
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 10 PM tonight for 
strong winds and low relative humidity and isolated dry lightning,
for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes all of south
central and and southeast Colorado...

...A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Thursday morning
through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and very low 
relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which 
includes all of south central and southeast Colorado...

COZ220>237-121315-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1300Z-220513T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-220512T0400Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
304 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226...
227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237...

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226...
227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 
  224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...
  234... 235...236 and 237.

* Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are 
  expected from mid morning through the evening both today and 
  Thursday.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 2 percent.

* DRY LIGHTNING...may occur in the far eastern fire weather 
  zones late this afternoon and early evening.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
564 
WWUS85 KPUB 120416
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1016 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 7 AM Thursday morning 
through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and very low 
relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which 
includes all of south central and southeast Colorado...

...Red Flag warning has expired for gusty winds and low relative
humidity values for fire weather zones for Fire Weather Zones 220
through 237, which includes all of south central and southeast 
Colorado...

COZ220>237-122030-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-220512T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1300Z-220513T0400Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
1016 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226...227...
228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237...

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...
225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...
236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 
  224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...
  234... 235...236 and 237.

* Timing...7 am to 10 pm Thursday.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 3 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hodanish

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at May 10, 2:56 PM MDT, 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 2:56 PM MDT, 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

Key Messages:

1) Critical Fire Weather Conditions will continue across the area
through this evening.

2) Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast for Wednesday due
to strong winds and low humidity values.

3) Low chance of strong to severe weather Baca and Prowers County
Wednesday afternoon with large hail and strong outflow winds
possible.

4) Areas and dust will be possible through Wednesday afternoon.
Smoke is from the New Mexico wildfires and dust from strong winds
across the region.

Currently...satellite imagery shows an upper trough sitting along
the central California coast with broad southwesterly flow spreading
across Utah and Colorado.  Skies are relatively clear across the
region.  Temperatures are warm across the Plains with mid 70s to mid
80s.  Winds are southerly with gusts 30 to 40 mph and combining with
humidity values under 15 percent to produce critical fire weather
conditions over the entire area.  Satellite imagery also shows
widespread smoke lifting north out of New Mexico and into our
eastern Plains.

Rest of today through tonight...the upper level trough will slowly
begin to shift eastward spreading increasing southwesterly low
across southern Colorado.  Increasing mid and high level cloud cover
will begin to impact the region late tonight.  Low level flow will
shift more southerly across the Plains, helping to advect moisture
northward by morning.  This will allow for humidities to recover
nicely near the Kansas border.  Elsewhere, light flow and dry air
will remain in place, with humidity recoveries less than 25 percent.
Overnight temperatures will remain mild with 50s across the Plains,
and 40s over the San Luis Valley.

Wednesday...another dangerous fire weather day is in store for
southern Colorado.  The upper trough will continue eastward,
spreading increasing southwest flow across the region.  Widespread
wind gusts 35 to 50 mph will be possible by mid morning, and
continue into the afternoon.  As southwesterlies kick in, it will
force moisture on the Plains quickly eastward.  Most high-res model
guidance pushes the dryline east into Kansas, along with all
possible thunderstorm activity.  The NAMnest is the outlier, which
fires convection over Prowers and Baca County by late afternoon,
quickly moving it east into Kansas during the evening.  Lowered pops
over Prowers and Baca Counties based on the latest guidance and
dryline placement.  If a thunderstorm should fire, SBCAPE values
around 2000 j/kg would support large hail.  High cloud bases will
also promote a high wind threat.  Shear is modest at 25 to 30 kts.
But at this time, it appears thunderstorm activity will be just to
our east.

For the Red Flag Warning, widespread strong winds, with gusts 35 to
50 mph are expected by mid to late morning and continue through the
afternoon.  Humidity values will be low, falling to under 10
percent.  This will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions for
the whole region.  If a thunderstorm should fire over Prowers and
Baca Counties, the risk of dry lightning would be elevated.  This
lightning could lead to fire starts, even if humidity values are
above 15 percent.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

Key messages:

1) Critical fire weather conditions will be in place for for most
areas late afternoon/evening on Wednesday. Extremely dry conditions
on Thursday will result in dangerous to extreme fire weather
conditions over most areas, especially over the plains.

2) Critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early
evening are going to continue from Friday through Tuesday over the
mountains.

3) A few thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, may develop over
the far southeastern plains Wednesday evening.

4) Very strong winds with areas of blowing dust will be possible
over the plains and San Luis Valley on Wednesday and over the
central and eastern plains on Thursday.

5) Smoke from wildfires in New Mexico will infiltrate areas of the
eastern mountains and plains and this could reduce visibilities and
bring about poor air quality conditions through Thursday.

6) A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible over the
eastern mountains on Sunday afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms
will be possible over the mountains for Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

Detailed discussion:

Wednesday Night through Friday...

Humidity recovery will finally be at least noticeable overnight on
Wednesday, especially east of the I-25 corridor. However, we will be
under strong and dry southerly and southwesterly flow for all of
Thursday, as the main trough axis continues to push north through
the day. This southerly flow will continue to bring smoke from fires
burning in New Mexico into our area on Thursday. A robust
south/north oriented jet streak moves directly over our region on
Thursday morning, with the strongest surface winds looking to push
through south central and southeast Colorado between 3am and Noon on
Thursday. Gusts up to 45kts look likely at this point, especially in
El Paso County, the San Luis Valley, and the far eastern plains.
Unfortunately, even after decent moisture recovery out east on
Wednesday night, we are still looking at relative humidity values in
the single digits for our entire area, with some of us in the single
digits as early as 10am. This set up will lead to yet another day of
critical to extreme fire weather conditions on Thursday afternoon.
Moreover, HRRR guidance also shows dewpoints as low as -15 to -25
degree range over all the mountains, valleys, and most of the I-25
corridor during the middle of the day. With these values,
potentially dangerous fire weather conditions will be widespread
over these areas as RH values drop to 5 percent and below.
Some areas could see red flag conditions persisting for a few hours
after sunset, especially in the San Luis Valley and out east in
Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties.

Ensemble guidance shows good agreement that a transition to zonal
flow will set up for Friday, with clear skies and temperatures of
about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Daytime
highs in the 80s in the lower terrain and 70s in our mountains are
expected for Friday afternoon. We will remain dry, but zonal flow
will help to clear any remaining smoke out of our region. Winds will
still be high enough to lead to fire weather conditions on Friday
afternoon, especially along and west of the I-25 corridor.  -Ehr

Saturday through Sunday...

A ridge is going to build in over the western states and then
continue to propagate towards the east and over the region
throughout the weekend. This will allow for the west to
northwesterly flow to continue in the mid to upper levels over the
area and result in dry conditions to persist under subsidence.
However, there could be enough mid level moisture present with
orographic lifting to produce a few isolated thunderstorms over the
eastern mountains, with the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains
looking like the best chance on Sunday afternoon. With the dry
conditions and westerly winds still in place over the higher
terrain, there will be fire weather concerns continuing for some of
these locations, including the San Luis Valley. Temperatures will
remain relatively cooler, closer to around the seasonal average, due
to a weak frontal passage from the tail end of a large major
shortwave trough downstream over southern Canada during the day on
Saturday.

Monday through Tuesday...

The dirty side of the ridge is still going to be overhead with the
axis over the central Great Plains. There is going to be some
moisture being advected up into the ridge from Mexico, however only
some weak troughing over northern Colorado due to a larger area of
troughing over the NW CONUS will allow for some thunderstorms to
develop over the major mountain ranges, especially Rampart Range and
Palmer Divide by later in the afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday, the
latest ECMWF has the mid levels being much drier than the GFS, which
has thunderstorm development over the mountains due to a more moist
mid level flow. Depending on which model verifies, this could either
help help to mitigate the threat of fire weather conditions if
enough precipitation occurs, or ignite fires due to lightning
strikes. Nonetheless, the ensembles display a continued downsloping
and dry pattern over the higher terrain with elevated fire weather
concerns. Temperatures will continue to warm as well, ahead of the
troughing. There will be more widespread fire weather conditions in
place over the higher terrain and there could also be spotty areas
over parts of the plains, especially along the I-25 corridor for
Tuesday afternoon.  -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. Strong southerly winds have set in at
KCOS and KPUB, and will not be diminishing until after 02Z this
evening. With southerly winds, smoke from fires burning in New
Mexico could effect visibility this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon, especially at KPUB and KCOS, but right now we're
expecting visibilities to remain VFR. Diurnal wind trends will
eventually set up overnight, before the return of more strong
southerlies again for tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>237.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for
COZ220>237.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220>237.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR/STEWARD
AVIATION...EHR/MOZLEY
Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 11:18 AM MDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-111730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1118 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected across
the area into this evening, with prolonged periods of low
relative humidity and gusty winds. Brief periods of blowing dust
are possible, especially over the San Luis Valley, which could
limit visibility and impact travel.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Widespread dangerous fire weather conditions are expected each
day through the end of the work week, with prolonged periods of
low relative humidity and gusty winds. The most critical
conditions look to occur Wednesday into Thursday. Fire weather
concerns continue into the weekend, though may not be as
widespread.

An isolated strong to severe storm is possible Wednesday
afternoon over Prowers and Baca Counties. Strong outflow winds
and damaging hail would be the primary severe risks with storms
near the Kansas border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

88/88

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 10, 3:03 PM MDTRed Flag WarningPUBAlamosa, Baca, Bent, Chaffee, Conejos, Costilla and 15 more57 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Colorado, 2022Every red flag warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.