Alert archive / Colorado / Red Flag Warnings in 2022
Red Flag Warning 44, NWS Pueblo, CO
NWS Pueblo, CO issued this red flag warning at May 10, 2022, 3:03 PM MDT for 21 counties in Colorado. It took effect at May 11, 2022, 10:00 AM MDT. It was in force for 12 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2022, 3:03 PM MDT (21:03 UTC)
- In effect from
- May 11, 2022, 10:00 AM MDT
- Expired
- May 11, 2022, 10:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Pueblo, CO
All 21 counties
Alamosa County, CO, Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Chaffee County, CO, Conejos County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Custer County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Fremont County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Lake County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Mineral County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Rio Grande County, CO, Saguache County, CO, Teller County, CO
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 4:59 PM MDT | HAIL 0.88 | 3 W Stonington, CO | |
| May 11, 6:08 PM MDT | TSTM WND GST 55 | 4 Se Stonington, CO | MESONET STATION DW6957 WALSH. |
| May 11, 6:10 PM MDT | TSTM WND GST 59 | 9 S Springfield, CO | CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 9 S SPRINGFIELD. ASOS STATION KSPD 8 S SPRINGFIELD. |
| May 11, 6:10 PM MDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 59 | 9 S Springfield, CO | ASOS STATION KSPD 8 S SPRINGFIELD. |
| May 11, 6:56 PM MDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | 4 Wsw Lamar, CO | ASOS STATION KLAA LAMAR AIRPORT. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 248 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1733 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 79 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 620 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
789 WWUS85 KPUB 102103 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 303 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 ...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 9 PM Tuesday evening for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes all of the Continental Divide, the San Luis Valley, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountains, the Wet Mountain Valley, and all of the southeast Colorado Plains... ...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday morning through 10 PM Wednesday evening for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 233 and 235, which includes all of the Continental Divide, the San Luis Valley, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountains, the Wet Mountain Valley, Teller, El Paso, Fremont, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas, Crowley, Otero and Bent Counties... ...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 10 AM Wednesday morning through 10 PM Wednesday evening for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 234, 236 and 237, which includes Kiowa, Prowers and Baca Counties... ...A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 9 AM Thursday morning through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes all of the Continental Divide, San Luis Valley, the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountain Ranges, the Wet Mountain Valley, and all of the southeast Colorado Plains... COZ220>233-235-111315- /O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0038.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0044.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1500Z-220513T0400Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0043.000000T0000Z-220511T0300Z/ Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee County- Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant Fossil Beds National Monument- Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf Creek Pass and Creede- San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Bent County Including Las Animas- 303 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222...225...226...227...228... 229 AND 230... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226...227...228...229...230... 231...232...233 AND 235... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226...227...228...229...230... 231...232...233 AND 235... The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning has also been issued from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233 and 235. * Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are expected from mid morning through the evening, today, Wednesday and Thursday. * Winds...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Relative Humidity...near 5 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ234-236-237-111315- /O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0044.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1500Z-220513T0400Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0043.000000T0000Z-220511T0300Z/ Kiowa County Including Eads-Prowers County Including Lamar- Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 303 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 234...236 AND 237... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 234...236 AND 237... The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning has also been issued from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday. * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 234...236 and 237. * Winds...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are expected from mid morning through the evening, today, Wednesday and Thursday. * Relative Humidity...near 5 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
4 follow-up statements
447 WWUS85 KPUB 110333 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 933 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 ...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday morning through 10 PM Wednesday evening for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 233 and 235, which includes all of the Continental Divide, the San Luis Valley, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountains, the Wet Mountain Valley, Teller, El Paso, Fremont, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas, Crowley, Otero and Bent Counties... ...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 10 AM Wednesday morning through 10 PM Wednesday evening for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 234, 236 and 237, which includes Kiowa, Prowers and Baca Counties... ...A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 9 AM Thursday morning through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes all of the Continental Divide, San Luis Valley, the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountain Ranges, the Wet Mountain Valley, and all of the southeast Colorado Plains... COZ220>237-111945- /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0044.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1500Z-220513T0400Z/ Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee County- Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant Fossil Beds National Monument- Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf Creek Pass and Creede- San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 933 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222...225...226...227... 228...229 AND 230... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222...225...226...227... 228...229 AND 230... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233... 234... 235...236 and 237. * Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are expected from mid morning through the evening, today, Wednesday and Thursday. * Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
121 WWUS85 KPUB 111000 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 400 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022 ...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today from 10 AM through 10 PM for strong winds and low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes the entire National Weather Service Pueblo's forecast area. DRY LIGHTNING may also occur in the far eastern fire weather zones late this afternoon and early evening... ...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 9 AM Thursday morning through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and very low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes the entire National Weather Service Pueblo's forecast area... COZ220>237-120200- /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0044.220511T1600Z-220512T0400Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1500Z-220513T0400Z/ Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee County- Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant Fossil Beds National Monument- Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf Creek Pass and Creede- San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 400 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226... 227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237...DRY LIGHTNING may also occur in the far eastern fire weather zones. ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226...227... 228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233... 234... 235...236 and 237. * Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are expected from mid morning through the evening both today and Thursday. * Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 2 percent. The lowest relative humidity values will occur on Thursday. * DRY LIGHTNING...may occur in the far eastern fire weather zones late this afternoon and early evening. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ Hodanish
685 WWUS85 KPUB 112104 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 304 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 ...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 10 PM tonight for strong winds and low relative humidity and isolated dry lightning, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes all of south central and and southeast Colorado... ...A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Thursday morning through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and very low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes all of south central and southeast Colorado... COZ220>237-121315- /O.EXT.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1300Z-220513T0400Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-220512T0400Z/ Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee County- Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant Fossil Beds National Monument- Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf Creek Pass and Creede- San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 304 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226... 227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237... ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226... 227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233... 234... 235...236 and 237. * Timing...the strongest winds and lowest humidity values are expected from mid morning through the evening both today and Thursday. * Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 2 percent. * DRY LIGHTNING...may occur in the far eastern fire weather zones late this afternoon and early evening. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
564 WWUS85 KPUB 120416 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1016 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 ...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 7 AM Thursday morning through 10 PM Thursday evening for strong winds and very low relative humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes all of south central and southeast Colorado... ...Red Flag warning has expired for gusty winds and low relative humidity values for fire weather zones for Fire Weather Zones 220 through 237, which includes all of south central and southeast Colorado... COZ220>237-122030- /O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-220512T0400Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0045.220512T1300Z-220513T0400Z/ Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee County- Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant Fossil Beds National Monument- Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf Creek Pass and Creede- San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 1016 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226...227... 228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...224... 225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235... 236 AND 237... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...223... 224...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233... 234... 235...236 and 237. * Timing...7 am to 10 pm Thursday. * Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 3 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ Hodanish
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at May 10, 2:56 PM MDT, 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 10, 2:56 PM MDT, 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 256 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 Key Messages: 1) Critical Fire Weather Conditions will continue across the area through this evening. 2) Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast for Wednesday due to strong winds and low humidity values. 3) Low chance of strong to severe weather Baca and Prowers County Wednesday afternoon with large hail and strong outflow winds possible. 4) Areas and dust will be possible through Wednesday afternoon. Smoke is from the New Mexico wildfires and dust from strong winds across the region. Currently...satellite imagery shows an upper trough sitting along the central California coast with broad southwesterly flow spreading across Utah and Colorado. Skies are relatively clear across the region. Temperatures are warm across the Plains with mid 70s to mid 80s. Winds are southerly with gusts 30 to 40 mph and combining with humidity values under 15 percent to produce critical fire weather conditions over the entire area. Satellite imagery also shows widespread smoke lifting north out of New Mexico and into our eastern Plains. Rest of today through tonight...the upper level trough will slowly begin to shift eastward spreading increasing southwesterly low across southern Colorado. Increasing mid and high level cloud cover will begin to impact the region late tonight. Low level flow will shift more southerly across the Plains, helping to advect moisture northward by morning. This will allow for humidities to recover nicely near the Kansas border. Elsewhere, light flow and dry air will remain in place, with humidity recoveries less than 25 percent. Overnight temperatures will remain mild with 50s across the Plains, and 40s over the San Luis Valley. Wednesday...another dangerous fire weather day is in store for southern Colorado. The upper trough will continue eastward, spreading increasing southwest flow across the region. Widespread wind gusts 35 to 50 mph will be possible by mid morning, and continue into the afternoon. As southwesterlies kick in, it will force moisture on the Plains quickly eastward. Most high-res model guidance pushes the dryline east into Kansas, along with all possible thunderstorm activity. The NAMnest is the outlier, which fires convection over Prowers and Baca County by late afternoon, quickly moving it east into Kansas during the evening. Lowered pops over Prowers and Baca Counties based on the latest guidance and dryline placement. If a thunderstorm should fire, SBCAPE values around 2000 j/kg would support large hail. High cloud bases will also promote a high wind threat. Shear is modest at 25 to 30 kts. But at this time, it appears thunderstorm activity will be just to our east. For the Red Flag Warning, widespread strong winds, with gusts 35 to 50 mph are expected by mid to late morning and continue through the afternoon. Humidity values will be low, falling to under 10 percent. This will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions for the whole region. If a thunderstorm should fire over Prowers and Baca Counties, the risk of dry lightning would be elevated. This lightning could lead to fire starts, even if humidity values are above 15 percent. Mozley .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 Key messages: 1) Critical fire weather conditions will be in place for for most areas late afternoon/evening on Wednesday. Extremely dry conditions on Thursday will result in dangerous to extreme fire weather conditions over most areas, especially over the plains. 2) Critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening are going to continue from Friday through Tuesday over the mountains. 3) A few thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, may develop over the far southeastern plains Wednesday evening. 4) Very strong winds with areas of blowing dust will be possible over the plains and San Luis Valley on Wednesday and over the central and eastern plains on Thursday. 5) Smoke from wildfires in New Mexico will infiltrate areas of the eastern mountains and plains and this could reduce visibilities and bring about poor air quality conditions through Thursday. 6) A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern mountains on Sunday afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains for Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Detailed discussion: Wednesday Night through Friday... Humidity recovery will finally be at least noticeable overnight on Wednesday, especially east of the I-25 corridor. However, we will be under strong and dry southerly and southwesterly flow for all of Thursday, as the main trough axis continues to push north through the day. This southerly flow will continue to bring smoke from fires burning in New Mexico into our area on Thursday. A robust south/north oriented jet streak moves directly over our region on Thursday morning, with the strongest surface winds looking to push through south central and southeast Colorado between 3am and Noon on Thursday. Gusts up to 45kts look likely at this point, especially in El Paso County, the San Luis Valley, and the far eastern plains. Unfortunately, even after decent moisture recovery out east on Wednesday night, we are still looking at relative humidity values in the single digits for our entire area, with some of us in the single digits as early as 10am. This set up will lead to yet another day of critical to extreme fire weather conditions on Thursday afternoon. Moreover, HRRR guidance also shows dewpoints as low as -15 to -25 degree range over all the mountains, valleys, and most of the I-25 corridor during the middle of the day. With these values, potentially dangerous fire weather conditions will be widespread over these areas as RH values drop to 5 percent and below. Some areas could see red flag conditions persisting for a few hours after sunset, especially in the San Luis Valley and out east in Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties. Ensemble guidance shows good agreement that a transition to zonal flow will set up for Friday, with clear skies and temperatures of about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Daytime highs in the 80s in the lower terrain and 70s in our mountains are expected for Friday afternoon. We will remain dry, but zonal flow will help to clear any remaining smoke out of our region. Winds will still be high enough to lead to fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon, especially along and west of the I-25 corridor. -Ehr Saturday through Sunday... A ridge is going to build in over the western states and then continue to propagate towards the east and over the region throughout the weekend. This will allow for the west to northwesterly flow to continue in the mid to upper levels over the area and result in dry conditions to persist under subsidence. However, there could be enough mid level moisture present with orographic lifting to produce a few isolated thunderstorms over the eastern mountains, with the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains looking like the best chance on Sunday afternoon. With the dry conditions and westerly winds still in place over the higher terrain, there will be fire weather concerns continuing for some of these locations, including the San Luis Valley. Temperatures will remain relatively cooler, closer to around the seasonal average, due to a weak frontal passage from the tail end of a large major shortwave trough downstream over southern Canada during the day on Saturday. Monday through Tuesday... The dirty side of the ridge is still going to be overhead with the axis over the central Great Plains. There is going to be some moisture being advected up into the ridge from Mexico, however only some weak troughing over northern Colorado due to a larger area of troughing over the NW CONUS will allow for some thunderstorms to develop over the major mountain ranges, especially Rampart Range and Palmer Divide by later in the afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday, the latest ECMWF has the mid levels being much drier than the GFS, which has thunderstorm development over the mountains due to a more moist mid level flow. Depending on which model verifies, this could either help help to mitigate the threat of fire weather conditions if enough precipitation occurs, or ignite fires due to lightning strikes. Nonetheless, the ensembles display a continued downsloping and dry pattern over the higher terrain with elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures will continue to warm as well, ahead of the troughing. There will be more widespread fire weather conditions in place over the higher terrain and there could also be spotty areas over parts of the plains, especially along the I-25 corridor for Tuesday afternoon. -Stewey && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Strong southerly winds have set in at KCOS and KPUB, and will not be diminishing until after 02Z this evening. With southerly winds, smoke from fires burning in New Mexico could effect visibility this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, especially at KPUB and KCOS, but right now we're expecting visibilities to remain VFR. Diurnal wind trends will eventually set up overnight, before the return of more strong southerlies again for tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>237. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ220>237. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220>237. && SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...EHR/STEWARD AVIATION...EHR/MOZLEY
Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 11:18 AM MDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1118 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022 COZ058>089-093>099-111730- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 1118 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected across the area into this evening, with prolonged periods of low relative humidity and gusty winds. Brief periods of blowing dust are possible, especially over the San Luis Valley, which could limit visibility and impact travel. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Widespread dangerous fire weather conditions are expected each day through the end of the work week, with prolonged periods of low relative humidity and gusty winds. The most critical conditions look to occur Wednesday into Thursday. Fire weather concerns continue into the weekend, though may not be as widespread. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible Wednesday afternoon over Prowers and Baca Counties. Strong outflow winds and damaging hail would be the primary severe risks with storms near the Kansas border. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight. 88/88
The office that day
Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 3:03 PM MDT | Red Flag Warning | PUB | Alamosa, Baca, Bent, Chaffee, Conejos, Costilla and 15 more | 57 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Colorado, 2022Every red flag warning in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.