Red Flag Warning 38, NWS Pueblo, CO

529 
WWUS85 KPUB 042127
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
327 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022

...A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday from 1 PM to 8 PM
MDT for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zone
224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

...A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Friday afternoon through
Friday evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire
Weather Zone 224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

COZ224-051330-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0038.220505T1900Z-220506T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0032.220506T1900Z-220507T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
327 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 224...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph both Thursday
  afternoon and again on Friday. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent both Thursday afternoon
  and again on Friday. 

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

744 
WWUS85 KPUB 050143
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
743 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Thursday from 1 PM to 8
PM MDT for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather
Zone 224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

...Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon 
through Friday evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity 
for Fire Weather Zone 224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

COZ224-051800-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0038.220505T1900Z-220506T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0032.220506T1900Z-220507T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
743 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 224...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

851 
WWUS85 KPUB 050955
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT today
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zone 
224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

...Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon
through Friday evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity
for Fire Weather Zone 224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

COZ224-060200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0038.220505T1900Z-220506T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0032.220506T1900Z-220507T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
355 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

Hodanish

887 
WWUS85 KPUB 051637
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1037 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT today
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zone
224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

...Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday, from 1 PM to 8 PM, 
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zone 224,
which includes the San Luis Valley...

COZ224-060845-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0032.220506T1900Z-220507T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0039.220506T1900Z-220507T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0038.220505T1900Z-220506T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
1037 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
224...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR 
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning which is in effect from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday. The Fire
Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon and early evening. Winds to diminish 
  overnight but will pick up once again Friday afternoon. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

822 
WWUS85 KPUB 052115
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
315 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM MDT tonight for 
gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zone 224, 
which includes the San Luis Valley...

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Friday, from 1 PM to 8 
PM, for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather 
Zone 224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

...Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Saturday morning through
Saturday evening, for strong winds and low relative humidity, for
Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222 and 225 through 237, which 
includes the Upper Arkansas River Valley, Teller County, Fremont
County, the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, the Wet Mountain 
Valley, and all of the southeast Plains including El Paso, Pueblo,
Huerfano, Las Animas, Crowley, Otero, Bent, Kiowa, Prowers and 
Baca Counties...

COZ224-061315-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0033.220507T1600Z-220508T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220506T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0039.220506T1900Z-220507T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
315 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch, which is in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday 
evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224. 

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph each
  afternoon and early evening, strongest on Saturday.

* Timing...Until 8 PM this evening. Winds to diminish overnight
  but will pick up once again Friday afternoon and again Saturday
  afternoon. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ220>222-225>237-061315-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0033.220507T1600Z-220508T0300Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
315 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 220...221...222...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...
232...233...234...235...236 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for strong winds and low humidity, which is in effect from 
Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...225... 
  226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235... 
  236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Late Saturday morning through the early evening.  

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

602 
WWUS85 KPUB 060212
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
812 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Friday, from 1 PM to 8 
PM, for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather 
Zone 224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

...Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Saturday morning
through Saturday evening, for strong winds and low relative
humidity, for Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222 and 225 through
237, which includes the Upper Arkansas River Valley, Teller
County, Fremont County, the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains,
the Wet Mountain Valley, and all of the southeast Plains
including El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas, Crowley, Otero,
Bent, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca Counties...

...Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday morning through 
Sunday evening, for strong winds and low relative humidity, for 
Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222 and 225 through 237, which 
includes the Upper Arkansas River Valley, Teller County, Fremont 
County, the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, the Wet Mountain 
Valley, and all of the southeast Plains including El Paso, Pueblo,
Huerfano, Las Animas, Crowley, Otero, Bent, Kiowa, Prowers and 
Baca Counties...

COZ224-061815-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220506T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0034.220508T1700Z-220509T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0039.220506T1900Z-220507T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0033.220507T1600Z-220508T0300Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
812 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING 
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 
SUNDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for strong winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds to diminish overnight but will pick up once again
  Friday afternoon, Saturday afternoon, and Sunday afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ220>222-225>237-061815-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0034.220508T1700Z-220509T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0033.220507T1600Z-220508T0300Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
812 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...
225...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...
236 AND 237... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 
SUNDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...225...226...
227...228...229...230...231...232... 233...234...235...236 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for strong winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...225... 
  226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235... 
  236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Late Saturday morning through the early evening, and
  late Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1001 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022

Visible satellite imagery indicates surface low pressure
development over the eastern plains south of La Junta. Widespread
stratus associated with a weakly-modified moist layer continues
coiling cyclonically around the low pressure center, from the far
eastern plains westward across Crowley County to the Interstate-25
corridor and then southward toward the Raton Mesa. The southward
reinforcement of this moisture and cool air west of the surface
low should maintain areas of stratus along the Interstate-25
corridor through late morning. The associated delay of stronger
insolation warrants lowering high temperatures today by a few
degrees in this area, and all across the ongoing stratus over
portions of the eastern plains. Moreover, surface observations
continue to indicate patchy fog and drizzle amid low-level
saturation across the stratus deck, which has been reflected in
the updated forecast through late morning. Sky conditions have
been updated, as well, to reflect the ongoing observational
trends.

Otherwise, deep low pressure in the midlevels continues to spread
eastward toward the forecast area. Strong ascent preceding this
feature should allow scattered convective development to occur
from the Interstate 25 corridor near and north of Pueblo, and
eastward across the plains. The 12Z observed sounding at Grand
Junction indicates a 500-mb temperature below -20C in association
with the cold upper low. Despite generally unfavorable theta-e in
the boundary layer given widespread cool conditions, the cold
midlevel temperatures will amplify boundary-layer-based buoyancy
given surface dewpoints being maintained in the 40s amid the
weakly-modified moist layer. And with 35-45 kt of effective bulk
shear, a few sustained, weak supercell structures could produce
generally small hail and gusty winds across the Interstate-25
corridor and across the far southeast plains in the 12PM-6PM
timeframe.

However, for locations along and south of a line from Kim to
Lamar, there is some concern for a narrow corridor of stronger
surface-based buoyancy to materialize in proximity to a
differential-mixing boundary becoming established on the edge of
stronger insolation / diurnal heating. Convective residence time
in this narrow corridor may be limited given storm motions
oriented oblique to its primary axis. If convection were to
reside within this corridor for any appreciable duration of time,
a more robust supercell structure could evolve with large hail and
strong wind gusts -- a highly conditional risk.

Near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur this afternoon
across the San Luis Valley. However, relatively cool temperatures
amid increasing cloudiness, and marginal wind gusts, should
generally mitigate the critical fire-weather risk today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022

Key messages:

1) Upper low will move over the region today, this will bring
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms possible.

2) Some fog this AM in El Paso county.

Currently...

Upper low is clearly indicated in sat pix imagery this morning.
Feature was over the KGJT vicinity and was moving slowly east. Low
clouds were noted over El Paso county and likely over parts of
Crowley and Kiowa county per obs and sat pix imgy (hi clouds were
blocking lower clouds over plains). Some showers were likely
occurring over the c mtns, especially N of Cottonwood Pass;
otherwise rest of the region was dry.

Today and Tonight.

Region will likely see quite a few showers over the area this
afternoon and evening. With the cold temps aloft associated with the
closed low moving over the region, I expect it will cloud up pretty
quickly by early afternoon over the entire cwa. Some low level
moisture is in place (30/L40 dwpts), and given the cold air aloft
this will allow for about a few hundred joules of CAPE to
materialize (with better CAPE values over far SE CO), and this will
allow convection to develop. At this time, the greatest threat will
be small hail with the stronger storms, with the potential for some
marginally svr hail in far SE CO.  Models early this morning are all
over the place with their convective bullseyes, but believe the
typically favored areas (Pikes Peak region) will have the overall
best chance of storms later this afternoon, with a 2ndry max over
the far SE plains with the better CAPE/favored convergence over this
region.

Max temps today will be cool, with temps aoa 50F N El Paso county to
near 70F over the far SE plains. The SLV should see temps in the
mid 50s, while mtns will be in the 30s and 40s.

With the sfc low forming over E Las Animas county, most of the
plains will experience a steady NE wind, and this will keep the
modest moisture/upslope pattern in place.

The SLV will see marginally near critical fire weather conditions,
especially over the S parts of the valley floor.

If a strong storm should form, the best chance would be down in Baca
county on the nose of the Theta-e axis impinging into this region.
SPC does have this general area in marginal risk for today.

Showers will have the potential to linger well into the evening
hours, especially over the far eastern plains. With clouds
lingering, it will be a relatively mild note over the plains, with
min temps in the 40s most of the lower elevations. Valleys and mts
will see 10s and 20s for lows. \/Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022

Key messages:

1) Critical fire weather conditions will be possible over the San
Luis Valley during the afternoon and early evening on Thursday and
Friday, and also for the eastern mountains and adjacent plains on
Friday.

2) Critical and potentially extreme fire weather conditions will be
widespread over most areas on Saturday during the afternoon and
early evening. Record highs will be possible.

3) Some snow showers with thunder will be possible for the northern
mountains and perhaps over the Palmer Divide as well on Sunday
during the afternoon and evening.

4) Winds from Sunday through Wednesday will be breezy and gusty at
times, especially during the day, which could result in more
critical fire weather concerns for areas of the CWA during the
afternoon and early evening hours for each day.

Detailed discussion:

Thursday...

A major shortwave trough will be exiting the region. Showers are
going to continue to be possible throughout the afternoon on
Thursday with the wrap-around moisture with this system. There will
still be enough instability for thunderstorms to be embedded with
these showers, especially over the plains during the afternoon
hours. As the low pressure center continues to move eastward,
showers and thunderstorms will taper off by evening as high pressure
subsequently builds in. Some snowfall will still be occurring on the
highest mountains, although accumulation amounts will be on the
marginal side and it does not appear to be necessary to have a
Winter Weather Advisory at this time, or continue a WWA if there is
one issued on Wednesday. Winds will still be rather strong and gusty
throughout the afternoon out of the northwest for many locations,
which will result in some critical fire weather conditions for the
San Luis Valley due to low relative humidity values already in
place. It will also be quite breezy for the eastern plains. These
winds will continue to weaken going into the late evening hours as
the pressure gradient loosens. Temperatures will rebound slightly on
for highs and be closer to the seasonal average.

Friday through Saturday...

A ridge with a positively tilted axis to the west will continue to
nudge its way in as the trough exits and become more amplified as it
does, due to a deepening trough upstream over the western CONUS. As
this occurs, expect for temperatures to warm up quite considerably,
especially for Saturday, where some locations could get near the
daily record high temperature as downsloping southwesterly winds
adiabatically warm up the valleys and the plains. By Saturday, highs
in the mid 90s are anticipated for the lower Arkansas River Valley
and southern plains. As surface winds increase over most of the CWA,
coupled with a very dry air mass in place, widespread critical and
potentially extreme fire weather conditions will occur for most of
the plains and the San Luis Valley, as well as the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, Wet Mountains/Wet Mountain Valley, upper Arkansas River
Valley and Teller County. It is appearing likely that a Red Flag
Warning will be necessary for many zones on Saturday for the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Models have begin to change in the most recent runs from where they
were for the past week in terms of the propagation of a longwave
trough, but are still in general agreement of this trough slowly
advancing towards the region, with a somewhat omega blocking pattern
being established. The overall progression of this trough has
shifted more to the north and slowed down because of the omega
blocking pattern and there is quite a bit more variation of the
deterministic models with respect to the this troughing upstream,
with the GFS keeping the trough more flattened and the position of
the upper level low remaining more to the north. The ECMWF and
Canadian have the amplification of the trough being deeper and the
position of the low being further south over the southwestern CONUS.
The GFS does begin to deepen much more drastically by the middle of
next week and match better with the other two models. The trough
looks to remain to the west at this point in the forecast, with a
persistent southwesterly flow in the mid and upper levels over
Colorado, with perturbations allowing for some moisture to be
possible over the northern mountains, otherwise remaining very dry
for the CWA with warm and dry conditions now remaining persistent
through Tuesday. It is important to note that this far out in the
forecast with models not being as reliable and a large trough
showing up in all of the models to the west that a shift in the
progression of the trough could allow it to come across the region
and allow for unsettled weather, however at this time the models
are in more agreement with the ensembles showing warmer and drier
conditions to be in place at least until the middle of next week.
-Stewey

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022

KCOS...

Low cigs (mainly MVFR) will be possible early this AM and tomorrow
morning as a moist upslope pattern will be over the area. In
addition, showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated today and
this evening, with the best chance of convection occurring during
the late afternoon/early evening time period. Winds are expected to
be light, generally from the northeast, Outside of the heavier
convective precip, and lower cigs this AM and tomorrow morning, VFR
conditions are anticipated.

KPUB...

Some lower MVFR cigs will be possible this morning and possibly
tomorrow morning. In addition, a few showers with some thunder will
be possible later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise VFR
conditions are anticipated. Winds will be light typically from the
northeast.

KALS...

Some convective showers will be possible later this afternoon into
the evening hours. Otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated through
the period. SW winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected this afternoon
becoming NWerly later this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ224.

&&

UPDATE...COHEN
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-051645-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1045 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the region this afternoon
and evening. The highest chance for thunderstorms will be across
the Interstate-25 corridor and the plains, where a few strong
storms capable of producing small hail and gusty winds may occur
mainly between 12PM and 6PM. In addition, there is a small chance
that a severe thunderstorm with large hail and strong winds
occurs across far southeast Colorado along and south of a line
from Kim to Lamar.

Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible over mountain
peaks for today through this evening.

Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be
possible across central and southern parts of the San Luis Valley
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

For Thursday and Friday, critical fire-weather conditions are
expected across the San Luis Valley.

An extended period of widespread critical fire-weather conditions
will be likely across much of the region each day from this
weekend into early next week. Extremely dangerous fire-weather
conditions will be possible along the Interstate-25 corridor and
across the plains, especially on Saturday as temperatures become
very warm.

The risk for thunderstorms could increase by the middle of next
week across the far eastern plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible this afternoon across the Interstate-25 corridor and
the plains.

COHEN