Red Flag Warning 34, NWS Pueblo, CO

146 
WWUS85 KPUB 272049
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT 
Thursday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for fire 
weather zones 224 and 237, which includes the San Luis Valley and 
Baca County...

...Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Friday morning 
through Friday evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity 
for fire weather zones 220, 221, 222, and 224 through 237, which 
includes the San Luis Valley, Lake, Chaffee, and Fremont counties,
the Wet Mountains Valley, the eastern mountains and all of the 
southeast plains...

COZ224-237-281300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.220428T1800Z-220429T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0028.220429T1700Z-220430T0300Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
249 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 237...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224 and 237.

* Winds...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Warning: Noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday. Watch: Friday 
  morning through Friday evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ220>222-225>236-281300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0028.220429T1700Z-220430T0300Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
249 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...225...226...227...228...
229...230...231...232...233...234...235 AND 236...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...225... 
  226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235 and 
  236.

* Winds...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Friday morning through Friday evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

699 
WWUS85 KPUB 280959
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
359 AM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT
today for gusty winds and low relative humidity for fire weather 
zones 224 and 237, which includes the San Luis Valley and Baca 
County...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued for 10 AM to 9 PM MDT on
Friday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for fire weather
zones 222 and 224 through 237, which includes the San Luis 
Valley, Fremont County, the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, 
the Wet Mountain Valley and all of the southeast plains...

...Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Friday morning
through Friday evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity
for fire weather zones 220 and 221, which includes Teller, Lake
and Chaffee Counties...

COZ224-237-290200-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0028.220429T1700Z-220430T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0035.220429T1600Z-220430T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.220428T1800Z-220429T0300Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
359 AM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 237...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday. The 
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224 and 237.

* Winds...Today...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
  Friday...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ222-225>236-290200-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0028.220429T1700Z-220430T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0035.220429T1600Z-220430T0300Z/
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
359 AM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222...225...226...
227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235 AND 236...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday. The 
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222...225...226...227... 
  228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235 and 236.

* Winds...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ220-221-290200-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FW.A.0028.220429T1600Z-220430T0300Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
359 AM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 220...221...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220 and 221.

* Winds...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 14 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

145 
WWUS85 KPUB 282103
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 PM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening 
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for fire weather zones 
224 and 237, which includes the San Luis Valley and Baca County...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT on 
Friday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for fire weather 
zones 222 and 224 through 237, which includes the San Luis Valley,
Fremont County, the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet 
Mountain Valley and all of the southeast plains...

...A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT on Friday
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for fire weather zones 
220 and 221, which includes Teller, Lake and Chaffee Counties...

COZ220-221-291315-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0028.220429T1600Z-220430T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KPUB.FW.W.0035.220429T1500Z-220430T0300Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
303 PM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
220 AND 221...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220 and 221.

* Winds...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...10 to 15 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ224-237-291315-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FW.W.0035.220429T1500Z-220430T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-220429T0300Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
303 PM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
224 AND 237...
...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
224 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph today, 
  west 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph for Friday.

* Relative Humidity...5 to 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ222-225>236-291315-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FW.W.0035.220429T1500Z-220430T0300Z/
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
303 PM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222...225...
226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235 AND
236...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222...225...226...227... 
  228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235 and 236.

* Winds...Northwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...5 to 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

098 
WWUS85 KPUB 290242
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
842 PM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...Red Flag Warning will expire at 9 PM MDT this evening for fire
weather zones 224 and 237, which includes the San Luis Valley and
Baca County...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT on
Friday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for fire weather
zones 220 through 222 and 224 through 237, which includes Teller, 
Lake and Chaffee Counties, the San Luis Valley, Fremont County, 
the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountain Valley 
and all of the southeast plains...

COZ224-237-291845-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-220429T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0035.220429T1500Z-220430T0300Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
842 PM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 224 AND 237...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
224 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224 and 237.

* Winds...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ220>222-225>236-291845-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0035.220429T1500Z-220430T0300Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
842 PM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 220...221...222...225...226...227...228...229...230...231...
232...233...234...235 AND 236...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...221...222...225... 
  226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235 and 
  236.

* Winds...Northwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1049 AM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Updated forecast grids for issuance of a Red Flag Warning for fire
zones 224 and 237 for Thu, and a Fire Weather Watch for almost all
of the forecast area for Fri. Friday still looks like a much more
impressive day as the upper jet sweeps across the forecast area,
combining with low humidity levels. Incorporated latest obs data.
Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Key Messages...

1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms spreading across the region
   today, with risk of severe wind gusts across the far SE Plains.

2) Marginal critical fire weather conditions with potential for
   isolated dry lightning.

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicting
increasing west to southwest flow aloft across the region as an
embedded short wave is translating across the southern Great Basin
at this time. Water vapor and GOES data is also indicating
increasing moisture spreading east into the Rockies at this time.
At the surface, induced lee low continues to deepen across the
southeast plains, with southerly low level flow starting to advect
some low level moisture from northeastern New Mexico into the
southeast plains.

Latest models in fairly good agreement of increasing mid moisture
spreading across the Rockies as embedded short wave continues to
translate east across the southern Colorado and northern New Mexico
border this afternoon, which then continues across the southern High
Plains tonight. UVV associated with the passing wave, combined with
steep mid level lapse rates and increasing mid level moisture will
support the development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area today, with the best coverage expected
to be across the southern mts and out across the far southeast
plains, where best low level moisture will be in place. Model
soundings are indicating mainly inverted v profiles and with only
modest instability (MUcapes of 500-1000 j/kg) progged through the
afternoon, convection is expected to be fairly high based supporting
more gusty winds and virga than measurable rainfall. However, models
do indicate bulk shear increasing through the afternoon which could
support a few stronger to possibly severe storms, especially across
the far southeast plains, generally east of a Trinidad to La Junta
line. The main threat from severe storms would be strong outflow
winds, though some marginal hail cant be ruled out with the
strongest storms.

The other concern today will be elevated fire danger with marginally
critical fire weather conditions along with the potential for dry
lightning. Current thinking is that the coverage of dry lightning
will be too isolated to support any fire weather highlights at this
time, though again, can't rule out a few fire starts this afternoon.

The mild start to the day will support warm temperature with highs
in the 70s to lower 80s expected across the plains, and mainly in
the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain, save for 40s at the
peaks. Skies clear from west to east tonight with subsidence behind
the passing wave, however, lows tonight to remain on the mild side,
generally in the 40s across the plains and in the 20s and 30s across
the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Key messages:

1) Critical fire weather conditions will increase from Thursday
through Friday with greatest concerns on Friday over much of south
central and southeastern Colorado.

2) A frontal boundary will move through with cooler temperatures
going into the weekend. Chance of thunderstorms and mountain snow on
Friday over central Colorado.

3) Spotty critical fire weather concerns will continue each day
going into the middle of next week for the plains and San Luis
Valley.

4) Thunderstorms will be possible over the plains on Sunday and
Monday, with chances of high elevation snow over the northern
Continental Divide and Rampart Range.

Detailed discussion:

Thursday...

A longwave trough with a negatively tilted axis is going to send a
major shortwave over the region by late in the day on Thursday,
although the upper level low associated with this will be far to the
northeast of Colorado. This will result in an enhancement of the
southwesterly winds at the surface over much of the CWA by later in
the afternoon as 700 mb wind flow increases over SE Colorado. Due to
this, critical fire weather conditions will be possible over areas
of the plains and also over the San Luis Valley as NBM is displaying
minimum relative humidity values as low as 8 percent over these
areas. There is going to be a very slight chance of some late
evening thunderstorms over the Palmer Divide as the low ejects out
over the plains in northeastern Colorado. Snow over the northern
Continental Divide could also occur as early as late Thursday
evening, otherwise deterministic model guidance and ensembles keep
the CWA relatively free of QPF. The downsloping winds will also
cause temperatures over the plains to warm up into the mid 80s, and
around 15 degrees above the seasonal average for this time of year.

Friday...

A surface low pressure center associated with this major shortwave
trough looks to develop over tri-state borderline of Colorado,
Kansas, and Nebraska later in the morning on Friday. This will
further tighten the pressure gradient and force winds to become
westerly and even stronger as cyclogenesis occurs. This will lead to
widespread fire weather conditions over much of the CWA, including
some of the higher elevations as well. At this time, it seems more
likely that there could be a high fire danger with even extreme
critical fire weather conditions for certain locations over the
plains where winds could get close to High Wind Warning criteria,
with occasional gusts over 50 mph possible. Some of the higher
resolution models are displaying gusts well over 50 mph just
downwind of the eastern facing slopes of the Saguache Range, as well
as the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, and also through the gap
of the mid Arkansas River Valley. There could be areas of blowing
dust due to this, with the northern San Luis Valley and along the I-
25 corridor being the most at risk with the strongest wind gusts
expected. Winds will subside going into the later evening hours as
the low continues to track eastward and critical fire weather
conditions should end around 9PM once RH values recover above the
threshold. Most of the precipitation should remain to the north of
the CWA with only the northern Continental Divide and northern El
Paso County likely seeing anything measurable. Being on the
southern side of the low, the freezing level is going to remain
relatively high, at around 7500 to 8000 feet.

Saturday...

A frontal boundary associated with the low pressure system is going
to move through southeast Colorado on the morning of Saturday and
this will advect some cooler temperatures in, bringing max
temperatures back to around the seasonal average for this time of
year. Winds will continue to be gusty over the eastern plains
throughout the day on Saturday, which will result in some potential
fire weather concerns, given the dry airmass moving in from the
north. Winds will eventually become more northeasterly over the
plains and further weaken as they do. Skies will continue to clear
as ridging temporarily build in over Colorado. Winds further west
over the I-25 corridor will also weaken and become more influenced
from diurnal effects by later in the evening.

Sunday through Monday...

Models begin to have more disagreement around this period in the
forecast, with respect to another perturbation in the longwave
pattern moving over the region. The GFS keeps this as an open wave
at the 500 mb level over the northwestern CONUS, while the ECMWF has
this much further to the south over central California, while the
Canadian is somewhere in between the two. The ECMWF then takes the
trough on a more northeastward track and while the GFS has the wave
propagating quickly south as it deepens. If the GFS verifies, this
will allow a better chance of precipitation over southeast Colorado,
including the plains. If the ECMWF verifies, there could be some
convection over the mountains, mainly the southwestern mountains,
but a limited threat over the plains, continuing into Monday from
the wrap-around moisture. The cooler air infiltration from the
northeasterly winds will keep high temperatures cooler for Sunday as
well with a slight moisture increase modification to the airmass,
which will help to keep relative humidity values above the threshold
for fire weather criteria over the plains. However, for the San Luis
Valley, relative humidity values will still be low enough for some
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours.

Tuesday though Wednesday...

Models continue to differ but have a fair agreement to another major
shortwave trough moving over the area late Tuesday night and into
Wednesday, which could also bring about some more fire weather
concerns ahead of it and also the threat for more thunderstorms and
some high elevation snow, yet this is still too far out with
inconsistencies to conclude with any certainty as to what is going
to happen with this trough and what impact (if any) this will have
for southeast Colorado.  -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours,
with breezy south to southwest winds expected to develop at the
terminals once again later this morning and afternoon. Will see
increasing mid level moisture ahead of a passing short wave which
will support the development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. The best coverage of
storms will be across the southern mts and onto the far southeast
plains. Will only indicate VCSH at the terminals through 00Z, put if
a storm does develop/move across the terminals, the main threat
would be strong and erratic wind gusts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for COZ220>222-224>237.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224-237.

&&

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
510 AM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-281115-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
510 AM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is the potential for a few severe thunderstorms, producing
strong and damaging outflow winds and hail to near one inch in
diameter, across the southeast plains this afternoon. The greatest
risk of severe storms will be generally east of a line from La Junta
to Eads.

Elevated fire danger, with breezy southwest winds and scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across rest of
south central and southeast Colorado today. These showers will be
higher based, producing more virga and gusty winds than measurable
precipitation. There will also be the potential for isolated dry
lightning, which could lead to possible fire starts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Critical fire weather conditions will be sporadic across the I-25
corridor and more widespread over the San Luis Valley for Thursday
afternoon and early evening. These conditions will be more
widespread and extremely critical over areas of the plains along
the I-25 corridor for Friday. Critical fire weather conditions
will also exist over higher elevations of the eastern facing
slopes of the Central Mountains, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains,
and the Wet Mountains.

A few thunderstorms will develop over the northern Continental
Divide and Rampart Range on Friday. Thunderstorms will be
possible over the plains on Sunday and Monday, with higher
elevation snow over the northern Continental Divide and Rampart
Range from Sunday through Tuesday. Snow accumulations are
expected to be very minimal.

Spotty critical fire weather concerns will continue for the
plains and San Luis Valley during the afternoon and early evening
from Saturday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and early evening across the southeast
plains.

23/STEWARD