Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Pueblo, CO

350 
WWUS85 KPUB 272041
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URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM MDT this
evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity values for fire
weather zone 224, which includes the San Luis Valley...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT 
Monday for gusty winds and low relative humidity values for fire 
weather zones 221, 222, 224, and 226 through 237, which includes 
the San Luis Valley, Fremont and Teller counties, and all of the 
southeast plains...

COZ224-281300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-220328T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0012.220328T1700Z-220329T0300Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
241 PM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
224...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread today, and again on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ221-222-226>237-281300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0012.220328T1700Z-220329T0300Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
241 PM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 221...222...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...
234...235...236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 221...222...226...227... 
  228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

030 
WWUS85 KPUB 280244
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
844 PM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT 
Monday for gusty winds and low relative humidity values for fire 
weather zones 221, 222, 224, and 226 through 237, which includes 
the San Luis Valley, Fremont and Teller counties, and all of the 
southeast plains...

COZ221-222-224-226>237-281845-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0012.220328T1700Z-220329T0300Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
844 PM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222...224...226...227...
228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 221...222...224...226... 
  227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235...236 and 
  237.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

072 
WWUS85 KPUB 280950
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 AM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT
Monday for gusty winds and low relative humidity values for fire
weather zones 221, 222, 224, and 226 through 237, which includes
the San Luis Valley, Fremont and Teller counties, and all of the
southeast plains...

...A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon and
evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity, for fire 
weather zone 237, which includes Baca County...

COZ237-290200-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0010.220329T1800Z-220330T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0012.220328T1700Z-220329T0300Z/
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
350 AM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 237.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph possible on
  Tuesday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
  growth and spread on Monday and again on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ221-222-224-226>236-290200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0012.220328T1700Z-220329T0300Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
350 AM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222...224...226...227...228...229...
230...231...232...233...234...235 AND 236...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 221...222...224...226... 
  227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235 and 236.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

057 
WWUS85 KPUB 281805
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1205 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM MDT this
evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity values for fire
weather zones 221, 222, 224, and 226 through 237, which includes 
the San Luis Valley, Fremont and Teller counties, and all of the 
southeast plains...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from noon to 7 PM MDT
Tuesday for gusty winds and low relative humidity, for fire 
weather zone 237, which includes Baca County...

COZ237-291100-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0010.220329T1800Z-220330T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0013.220329T1800Z-220330T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220329T0300Z/
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
1205 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
237...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday. The Fire Weather Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 237.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
  growth and spread today and again on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ221-222-224-226>236-290300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220329T0300Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
1205 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
221...222...224...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...
234...235 AND 236...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 221...222...224...226... 
  227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235 and 236.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

445 
WWUS85 KPUB 282043
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM MDT this
evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity values for fire
weather zones 221, 222, 224, and 226 through 237, which includes
the San Luis Valley, Fremont and Teller counties, and all of the
southeast plains...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon to 7 PM MDT 
Tuesday for gusty winds and low relative humidity, for fire 
weather zone 237, which includes Baca County...

COZ237-291300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220329T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0013.220329T1800Z-220330T0100Z/
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
243 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
237...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 237.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
  growth and spread this afternoon and evening, and again on 
  Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ221-222-224-226>236-290300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220329T0300Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
243 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
221...222...224...226...227...228...229...230...231...232...233...
234...235 AND 236...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 221...222...224...226... 
  227...228...229...230...231...232...233...234...235 and 236.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 5 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

464 
WWUS85 KPUB 290245
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
845 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...A Red Flag Warning will expire at 9 PM MDT this evening for 
fire weather zones 221, 222, 224, and 226 through 237, which 
includes the San Luis Valley, Fremont and Teller counties, and all
of the southeast plains...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon to 7 PM MDT
Tuesday for gusty winds and low relative humidity, for fire
weather zone 237, which includes Baca County...

COZ237-291845-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220329T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0013.220329T1800Z-220330T0100Z/
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
845 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237... 

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL 
EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237...

* Affected Area for Tuesday...Fire Weather Zone 237.

* Winds Tuesday...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity Tuesday...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
  growth and spread  on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ221-222-224-226>236-290345-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220329T0300Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
845 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 221...222...224...226...227...228...229...230...
231...232...233...234...235 AND 236...

Winds will continue to be breezy at times over parts of the 
district through the night time hours, however humidity values 
will increase to over 15% across the region by 9 pm this evening. 

$$

Hodanish

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Monday to a Red Flag Warning,
for the same area. Updated gridded database with latest obs data.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...Critical fire weather conditions over San Luis Valley this
afternoon and into the early evening hours...

Key messages:

1) Strong and gusty winds increasing out of the southwest over the
San Luis Valley later on this afternoon, coupled with low relative
humidity values will result in critical fire weather conditions.

2) A weak frontal boundary moving in from the east will pass over
the plains later in the day and allow for temperatures to remain
cooler than previously anticipated. Near record temperatures could
still occur over the San Luis Valley due to downsloping winds.

3) There could be an isolated snow shower or two for the Central
Mountains as a weak upper level disturbance moves over the region
later in the day.

Detailed discussion:

Today...

A well amplified ridge will be propagating over the region with the
axis negatively tilted and extended up over the northwestern CONUS.
Meanwhile, troughing well downstream over the eastern CONUS will
send a weak frontal boundary from the east over the plains on the
very tail end of the system. This will allow for temperatures over
the plains to not get quite as warm once the winds switch to a more
southeasterly direction, as it is a modified cP airmass but still
relatively cooler. It will be coolest closer towards the Kansas
border. Under the strong ridge, temperatures are going to be much
warmer than average elsewhere. Several models, such as the HRRR,
have also shown winds to be at or above criteria for critical fire
weather conditions in the San Luis Valley by later on this afternoon
and throughout the early evening hours. NBM winds were adjusted up a
bit using a blend of the HRRR/Consshort and 90th percentile. The
weak boundary over the plains looks to move though later in the
morning around noon over the I-25 corridor with winds increasing out
of the southeast.

Some of the models, such as the GFS and NAM, have been hinting at
some snow showers developing over the higher terrain of the Central
Mountains as upper level diffluence moves over the region later in
the day with some mid and high level moisture being advected up from
the southwest. Soundings also displayed higher levels of surface-
based moisture over the far eastern plains, although it is not fully
saturated. Due to this, there is a slight chance of some patchy fog
developing during the early morning hours, yet the confidence was
not there to put it in the forecast. Downsloping winds will result
in very warm temperatures over the San Luis Valley for this time of
year and Alamosa could likely break their daily high. Current record
is 69F (set in 2019) and the forecast temperature is 73F. Highs will
be generally in the upper 60s over eastern plains to the mid to
upper 70s over the I-25 corridor. Highs over the San Luis Valley and
upper Arkansas River Valley will also be in the 70s. Highs in high
country will be in the 40s and 50s, with upper 30s for the highest
peaks.

Tonight...

The ridge is going to continue to propagate eastward as the low over
the west continues to advance towards the region. This will allow
for the mid to high level clouds to continue to increase throughout
the night, which may help to inhibit radiational cooling and keep
things a little warmer for most areas. The downsloping southwesterly
winds will also keep temperatures warmer along the I-25 corridor and
downwind of the Raton Mesa, with lows in the 40s, and in the 30s for
the Arkansas River Valley. Winds will continue to weaken later in
the night. Temperatures in high country, including the San Luis
Valley, will be in the 20s.  -Stewey

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...Widespread Critical Fire Weather Conditions possible Monday, then
a trend towards cooler and wetter conditions...

Key Messages:

1) Critical Fire Weather Conditions possible across much of south
central and southeast CO Monday

2) Cooler and wetter conditions possible mid to late week with
mountain snow and lower elevation rain and snow showers

Winds will increase on Monday as the upper low moves into the
western U.S. and the ridge translates eastward in response.
Increasing southwest flow aloft will deepen a surface lee trough
which will kick eastward during the afternoon spreading gusty
winds from the mountains into the adjacent plains. Fuels have been
deemed critical over much of the lower elevations and given
strong winds and low RH have hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for
Monday across much of south central and southeast CO. Although
weather conditions are also coming up critical across a large
portion of the Wets and Sangres, fuels in these zones are deemed
not critical from recent snow so will leave these areas out of the
Fire Weather Watch.

Differences between the models grow beginning Monday night and
Tuesday as long range models generally open up the system and move
it across the CO Rockies as an open trough. GFS is slower and
more closed with the system back over the 4 corners region Tuesday
afternoon and night which veers winds aloft a tad more easterly
and suggests a wetter event for the southeast mountains and
adjacent plains. Other long range models and ensembles suggest a
more open though farther south solution to southern stream energy.
However even Canadian and EC suggest a fair amount of QPF Tuesday
night for the southeast mountains/adjacent plains as the system
crosses the mountains, possibly aided by instability. Snow levels
remain fairly high with most of the southeast plains remaining as
rain, though the Palmer Divide and possibly the Raton Ridge could
see a couple inches of accumulation Tuesday night. Given the
warmth of the system, road surfaces may not see much impact from
freezing along the I-25 corridor. Areas with greatest impacts
appear to be the Eastern San Juan mountains which should see
precipitation enhancement from orographic ascent Monday night and
Tuesday. The higher peaks of the central and southeast mountains
also pick up some moderate snowfall accumulations, though with
more of a northerly or even northwesterly component to mid level
winds if the more open trough solution in the ensembles verifies,
the lower elevations won't receive as much. Didn't stray far from
model blends for temperatures. Could see some isolated thunder
across the mountains and adjacent plains on Tuesday as the system
moves across, steepening lapse rates aloft.

Secondary system drops in from the north on Wednesday though
amplitude and westward storm track still differs between models and
ensembles.  This sends another round of rain and snow showers with
lower snow levels than the previous system to the mountains and
adjacent I-25 corridor.  There doesn't appear to be as much moisture
with this secondary system so precipitation amounts will be lower,
but still enough to bring a few inches of snow to the higher
elevations with the possibility for convective snow bursts lower
down.

Yet another system is timed for Friday into Saturday bringing more
unsettled weather to the region in the form of higher elevation snow
showers and lower elevation rain.  Confidence decreases
significantly with the timing and track of this latter system so
stuck close to model blends. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

Upper ridge axis is located directly overhead this afternoon,
with another Pacific low pressure system poised just off the West
Coast. A good amount of high level cloudiness is spreading across
Colorado this morning and afternoon, which is expected to continue
through the evening before some clearing is forecast overnight.

VFR conditions are anticipated across the forecast area over the
next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB
and KALS. All sites will likely see afternoon wind gusts of 20-25
kts...KALS from the southwest, KCOS and KPUB from the
southeast...between 19z and 02z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 305 PM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022

Below are the daily record high temperatures and forecast high
temperatures for the following locations:

Location/Dates:             Daily Record High(Year)     Forecast High

Alamosa:
March 27th (Sunday)...      69 (2019)                   73
March 28th (Monday)...      71 (2015)                   69

Colorado Springs:
March 27th (Sunday)... 		76 (1988) 					72
March 28th (Monday)... 		80 (1963) 					77

Pueblo:
March 27th (Sunday)...      85 (1988)                   76
March 28th (Monday)...      84 (1986)                   83

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ221-222-
224-226>237.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

&&

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE
CLIMATE...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
431 AM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-281045-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
431 AM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions will spread across the San Luis
Valley today due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. This
will lead to conditions favorable for rapid rates of fire growth
and spread.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Widespread critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Monday afternoon and evening across the San Luis Valley, Fremont
and Teller counties and all of the southeast plains. Gusty winds
and low relative humidity values will bring a return of
conditions favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread.

A series of weather systems will spread rounds of snow showers
into the mountains with rain and snow showers across the plains
for Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chance will be on Tuesday as
a storm system moves across the region. Impacts will be mainly
confined to the mountain areas with moderate to heavy snowfall
possible across the Eastern San Juan mountains and the higher
peaks of the central and southeast mountains. A slushy inch or two
of snowfall will be possible over the Palmer Divide and Raton
Ridge through Wednesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible on Tuesday as well which could bring some locally heavy
snow bursts.

Another system will be possible Friday into next Saturday bringing
another round of cool and unsettled weather, with mountain snows
and mainly lower elevation rain showers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

STEWARD/31