Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Pueblo, CO

096 
WGUS75 KPUB 072123
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COC023-055-072330-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0068.000000T0000Z-220807T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Costilla CO-Huerfano CO-
323 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SPRING BURN SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 530 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN COSTILLA AND WEST 
CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTIES...

At 323 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain over the Spring Burn Scar. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain 
have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to 0.5 inches in 1 
hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow 
moving through Pass Creek, Indian Creek, South Oak Creek, and Middle 
Creek. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and 
other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Spring Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Spring Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Spring Burn Scar north of Highway 160, Spring Burn Scar south of 
  Highway 160 in Costilla county, Spring Burn Scar south of Highway 
  160 in Huerfano county, Indian Creek on the southeastern Spring 
  Burn Scar and La Veta Pass.

This includes the following high risk locations...
South Abeyta Creek near County Road 443, South Abeyta Creek near 
County Road 442, South Abeyta Creek near County Road 441 and Pass 
Creek Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause 
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks...streams...and 
ditches in the Spring Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can also be 
anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away in 
places. If you encounter flood waters...climb to safety.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 10525 3767 10497 3754 10507 3748 10514
      3744 10532

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.25-0.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

MG

432 
WGUS75 KPUB 072322
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
522 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COC023-055-072332-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0068.000000T0000Z-220807T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Costilla CO-Huerfano CO-
522 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SPRING BURN SCAR IS CANCELLED FOR 
NORTHEASTERN COSTILLA AND WEST CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM MDT Monday for 
portions of central Colorado and southeast Colorado.

LAT...LON 3771 10525 3767 10497 3754 10507 3748 10514
      3744 10532

$$

MW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Based on latest HREF data have expanded Flash Flood watches to
include Bent and Prowers counties and have extended the plains
Flash Flood Watches until 3 AM.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Key Messages...

1. Flash Flood risk for the S Mtns, I-25 corridor and parts of the
eastern Plains today into this evening. Additional areas have been
added to the flood watch.

Currently...

A cool front was located up near the CO/WY border and it was moving
south. Aloft, a well defined short wave was over UT and was
progressing east. A well defined monsoon plume was shown in he wet
vapor imagery extending from the Baja into AZ, W CO and into NE. As
the surface, dewpts were in the 50s and 60s, with mid 60s in KLHX.

Today...

Convective rain, heavy at times, is near certain for a portion of
the region later today. A very favorable environment for heavy rain
will come into place this afternoon as the monsoon plume will be
over the region. The plume, combined with favorable upslope and the
sfc boundary over the plains, along with favorable heating through
early afternoon will allow for heavy convective rains to develop by
early to mid afternoon. At this time, the greatest threat areas will
be the southern mountains, the I-25 corridor region and then
extending NE across Crowley, Otero and Kiowa counties. All of the
guidance is showing rather decent CAPE values, with some the NAM
data showing CAPE values above 2000 J/kg. Overall the SPC HREF
guidances is showing mean cape values over the greater Palmer Divide
region to be 1000-2000 J/KG. Although synoptic shear through the
column is non-existent, given the CAPE we will likely see some
strong winds with the storms today as DCAPE values will be rather
significant. There will also likely be an MCV developing in the deep
convection and this will likely enhance the local low level wind
environment, and a QLCS type tornado cannot be ruled out. There is
also a non-zero landspout threat along the slow moving boundary
which will be over the plains.

Overall, the heavy rain threat/svr threat will be along and north of
the boundary which will extend across the region. At this time the
greatest threat area appears to be along and north of a line from
KTAD to Eads. Additionally, if the dwpts can remain high, then the
CAPE values will be greater, increasing the heavy rain and severe
threat.

SPC has the greater Palmer Divide region in marginal risk and WPC
has a slight risk for excessive rainfall for a good portion of the
region.

Areas west of the mountains will dry out considerably, and these
areas will only see isolated to scattered storms today.

Tonight

the heavy rain threat will push south and east this evening, with
the southern mountains/S-I25 corridor region, along with the eastern
plains likely seeing the heaviest rainfall. At this time the
heaviest rain will likely fall during the evening hours, with the
heavy rain threat decreasing during the early morning hour. With
that said, it is possible that the flood watch which is in effect
may need to be extending into the early morning hours if the heavy
rain threat continues.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Key Messages:

1) Daily precipitation chances are expected, mostly over the
mountains, each afternoon.

2) Temperatures will slowly to above average values by the end of
the week.

Monday - Saturday... The long term period will bring a typical
summer time pattern to southern Colorado, with warm temperatures and
daily precipitation chances. Ensemble and deterministic models, such
as the GEFS and EPS, are in agreement about maintaining a ridge of
high pressure over Colorado during most of the period, and slowly
pushing this feature east over the central plains during the end of
the long term period. The agreement between the models leads to
greater confidence in the evolution of things and the possible
impacts. This pattern will bring overall synoptic subsidence to
southern Colorado, which is unfavorable for precipitation
development. However though, moisture will continue to stream around
the western periphery of the ridge, and winds aloft will support
persistent orographic forcing over the mountains. Given this, daily
scattered to numerous afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the mountains. As precipitation blossoms over the
mountains each day, the flow aloft will help to push precipitation
off the mountains and into the mountain valleys, where scattered
rain shower and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Given the
placement of the ridge and the overall flow around it, the eastern
plains will remain more dry, with chances for isolated rain showers
and thunderstorms at most. As the ridge of high pressure does slowly
shift east late in the period though, precipitation chances will
increase for most of southern Colorado. As for temperatures, the
beginning of the period will start below average thanks to a cold
front passage Sunday, but as the ridge sits over the region,
temperatures will start to slowly warm. Given the ridge will be the
primary synoptic influence, temperatures will warm to above average
values for this time of year for most of southern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across most of
the forecast area today and tonight. Confidence on extended
impacts from precipitation at KALS is a bit lower, but showers
are expected to pass over the terminal. Gusty winds and brief
reductions to visibility are expected after 00Z this evening.

KCOS and KPUB will both experience showers and storms, with VCSH
beginning shortly after 21Z. When storms do pass over the
terminal, gusty erratic outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall
will occur.

Precipitation will move away from KALS after 03Z, but will persist
at KCOS and KPUB overnight, with low stratus expected to set in
around 12-15Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for COZ072>080-083-087.

Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ081-082-084>086-088-089-
093-095>098.

&&

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1105 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-081715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1105 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rain capable of causing flash flooding will be likely today,
and this heavy rain threat will last into the overnight hours. In
addition, severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening across all of the southeast plains.

The greatest flash flood threat area will be over the southern
mountains, including the Wet Mountains, the Wet Mountain Valley, all
of the Sangre De Cristo mountain region, Fremont county and Teller
county. Over the plains, the best chance of flash flooding rainfall
will occur along the entire I-25 corridor region, and over the
plains generally along and north of a line from Kim to Lamar. The
heavy rainfall threat may last through the evening for the
southeast mountains and adjacent valleys, and into the early
morning hours for the southeast plains.

The greatest severe thunderstorm threat will be over the southeast plains
generally along and north of a line from Trinidad to Springfield.
The primary threat will be strong winds to 60 to 70 mph. Localized
hail up to around 1 inch in diameter will be possible with the
isolated stronger storms. And a brief weak tornado or two cannot
be ruled out, especially along a slow moving boundary which will
progress southward across the plains this afternoon, mainly along
and north of highway 50.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Rain shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Monday. Rain,
heavy at times, is possible, with a risk of widespread flooding.
Flash flooding over area burn scars, urban corridors, and saturated
soils may occur.

The coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to lessen
for midweek. However, scattered thunderstorms will remain possible
for Tuesday through Saturday over the mountains and mountain
valleys, with more isolated storm activity across the eastern
plains, particularly along the I-25 Corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over much of the region, particularly in and near the
southeast mountains and the southeast plains.

31/31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1254 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COZ074-087-088-094-071945-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1254 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central
Huerfano and Las Animas Counties through 145 PM MDT...

At 1251 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of developing
strong thunderstorms across central and eastern Las Animas County.
These storms are nearly stationary, and will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall and landspout tornadoes.

HAZARD...Landspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Aguilar, Cokedale, Kim, Branson, Starkville, Gulnare,
Hoehne, Tyrone, Trinchera, Boncarbo, Model, Segundo and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10508 3748 10483 3763 10312 3700 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 069DEG 10KT 3717 10497 3721 10370

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG/AC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
134 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COZ089-095-072000-
Crowley County CO-Western Kiowa County CO-
134 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Kiowa
and northeastern Crowley Counties through 200 PM MDT...

At 134 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from 7 miles
southwest of Wild Horse Point to 12 miles south of Forder. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Kiowa and northeastern Crowley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10343 3837 10346 3836 10373 3852 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 263DEG 1KT 3846 10357 3851 10365

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
136 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COZ097>099-072030-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
136 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Prowers,
Baca and southeastern Bent Counties through 230 PM MDT...

At 133 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking developing strong
thunderstorms in the vicinity of northern Baca County. These storms
are nearly stationary, and will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and landspout tornadoes.

HAZARD...Landspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Walsh, Pritchett, Vilas, Two Buttes, Two Buttes
Reservoir and Stonington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3703 10307 3765 10306 3781 10205 3726 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 122DEG 4KT 3759 10207 3730 10310

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG