Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
108 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoonal moisture will continue to promote daily
opportunities for shower and thunderstorm activity during the next
several days. Today, the highest coverage of storms will be
across the northern and eastern half of Arizona, including
portions of the Phoenix metro. Strong to severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, blowing dust, heavy rain, and lightning will be the main
weather risks in these areas. Near to slightly above-normal
temperatures will prevail during the next several days with a
moderate HeatRisk in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An uptick in activity is expected across the lower
deserts of south-central Arizona this afternoon and evening. Very
good moisture remains in the atmosphere today, with PW values
around 1.0-1.5 inches. Plenty of sunshine today, means the
atmosphere has been able to destabilize quickly, and there is
plenty of surface based and 100 mb mixed-layer cape. Hi-res models
indicate scattered “pop up” thunderstorms will continue
developing across south-central Arizona this afternoon. The main
concern with thunderstorms today will be strong downburst and
outflow winds. SPC mesoanalysis is showing greater than 1500 J/kg
of DCAPE in the lower deserts of south-central Arizona. HREF has
greater than a 70% chance of seeing winds of 35 mph or greater
across much of these areas, including the Phoenix area and the
dust corridor on 1-10 between Tucson and Phoenix. Therefore,
blowing dust/dust storms will also be a concern today across
Maricopa and Pinal counties. In addition, the HREF max 4 hr wind
speed is showing the potential for some downbursts to produce
50-60 kts winds, so isolated severe thunderstorm winds are not out
of the question. Most areas will see less than a quarter inch of
rain with these storms. However, we can see good rain producers
with storms that develop in an environment with greater than 1
inch precipitable water, so it’s to no surprise that the HREF
max 3-hr QPF shows some isolated storms producing upwards of
0.5-1.0 inches of rain. Most of the activity should weaken and
diminish after sunset. However, it appears that a weather complex
in northern Mexico may produce additional outflows/spotty showers
and storms during the overnight hours across south-central and
even southwest Arizona.

Friday & Saturday, a similar weather pattern remains in place
with southwest flow. Atmosphere will remain moist with greater
than an inch PWs. Good instability will set up in the afternoon.
Mountain thunderstorms across north/east/southeast Arizona are
most likely, with a 20-25% chance of storms developing in the
lower deserts of south-central Arizona. Hi-res models continue to
indicate the potential for outflows from southeast Arizona to move
into the lower deserts of south-central Arizona and potentially
produce blowing dust or dust storms. Much quieter out west, during
this period, storm chances will be around 10% in southwest
Arizona and less than 5% in southeast California.

Better & persistent monsoon setup appears to set up Sunday into
much of next week. It also appears that Sunday/Monday, we also see
a slight uptick in moisture as we get some influence from
Tropical Storm Celia. Outside of storms, moderate HeatRisk will
remain in place for the lower deserts of our CWA through at least
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1750Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

IMPACTS TODAY:
 -Widely Sct'd Storms Develop Mid Afternoon Until Sunset
   -Potential For 35-45KT Downburst Gusts
   -These Will Have Capability Of Producing Brief Dust Storm
    Conditions

Light SE winds will continue through the morning hours. Winds will
veer SSW by early afternoon. Forecast models still are indicating
that widely scattered showers and storms should develop near 21Z
It will be hard to pin down specific impacts for a terminal until
development occurs. Thus, all TAFs will feature VCTS in this
timeframe with TEMPO for downburst gusts of 35KT and resultant
BLDU reducing visibilities and CIGS near 10 kft. The exact storm
timing and coverage will vary across terminals with storm chances
near 40%. Guidance favors ~70% risk of 30+KT wind gusts around
the Valley. Some terminals may only see outflow winds and dust,
but no thunderstorms. Conditions will calm down considerably
after sunset and winds are forecast to back around to the SE early
in the evening in response to area storm outflows.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Current light N and S component winds at both KBLH and KIPL to
become more W later today at KIPL and SW to W at KBLH by mid
afternoon at KBLH and early evening at KIPL with gusty sundowner
winds. Gusts of 20-25 kts are expected before gradually subsiding
during the evening and becoming NWly. Fair skies will continue
with perhaps a few mid and high clouds.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoonal moisture will remain entrenched across the desert
southwest into next week. This will continue to provide daily
opportunities for afternoon and early evening shower and
thunderstorm activity to develop, especially across the higher
terrain areas of south-central Arizona. With the increased
moisture, MinRH values will remain above 15% across most areas
with overnight recovery between 30-50% across the lower deserts
and 55-95% across the higher terrain. Apart from frequent late
afternoon/early evening thunderstorm downburst and/or outflow
winds, no other significant winds are expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Feldkircher
AVIATION...Sawtelle/Heil
FIRE WEATHER...Feldkircher/Lojero

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
113 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

AZZ554-559-232045-
Sonoran Desert Natl Monument AZ-West Pinal County AZ-
113 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Maricopa and Pinal
Counties through 145 PM MST...

At 112 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Freeman, or 21 miles east of Gila Bend, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Estrella, Freeman and Big Horn.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Interstate 8 between mile markers 130 and 150.
AZ Route 238 between mile markers 15 and 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3268 11229 3276 11254 3306 11244 3294 11206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 207DEG 10KT 3283 11233

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

INS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
157 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

AZZ553-554-559-232145-
Sonoran Desert Natl Monument AZ-Northwest Pinal County AZ-
West Pinal County AZ-
157 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Maricopa and Pinal
Counties through 245 PM MST...

At 157 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Freeman, or 26 miles west of Casa Grande, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Maricopa, Estrella, Freeman, Big Horn, Estrella Sailport, Sonoran
National Monument, Ak-Chin Village, Mobile and Stanfield.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Interstate 8 between mile markers 130 and 159.
AZ Route 238 between mile markers 13 and 44.
AZ Route 347 between mile markers 161 and 177.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 11215 3286 11251 3295 11251 3316 11244
      3317 11230 3314 11215 3307 11189 3281 11200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 204DEG 13KT 3291 11219

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

INS

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