Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Phoenix, AZ

410 
WGUS75 KPSR 281923
FFSPSR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1223 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

AZC013-021-282245-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-220728T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Maricopa AZ-Pinal AZ-
1223 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAWTOOTH AND SUPERSTITION BURN SCAR 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARICOPA AND 
PINAL COUNTIES...

At 1223 PM MST, there are several reports of overflowing washes near 
Apache Junction, with water flowing over roadways. Between 1.5 and 
2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 
2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing 
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Sawtooth and
         Superstition Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Sawtooth and Superstition Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mesa, Apache Junction, Gold Canyon, Superstition Mountains, Kings 
  Ranch, Gold Camp, Lost Dutchman State Park, Goldfield and Queen 
  Valley.

This includes the following highways...
	US Highway 60 between mile markers 193 and 202.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 11161 3354 11155 3350 11130 3331 11126

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

934 
WGUS75 KPSR 282037
FFSPSR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
137 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

AZC013-021-282245-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-220728T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Maricopa AZ-Pinal AZ-
137 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAWTOOTH AND SUPERSTITION BURN SCAR 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARICOPA AND 
PINAL COUNTIES...

At 137 PM MST, local law enforcement reported multiple water rescues 
ongoing near Apache Junction due to significant flash flooding. 
Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is 
ongoing.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Sawtooth and Superstition Burn Scar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 11161 3354 11155 3350 11130 3331 11126

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GL

004 
WGUS55 KPSR 282234
FFWPSR
AZC013-021-290045-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-220729T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
334 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Sawtooth and Superstition burn scar in...
  Maricopa County in south central Arizona...
  Pinal County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 545 PM MST.

* At 334 PM MST, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain over the Sawtooth and Superstition Burn Scar. 
  Between 2 and 4 inches of rain fell. Flash flooding is ongoing in 
  some low lying areas.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

  IMPACT...Flooding of areas in and around the Sawtooth and
           Superstition Burn Scar.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mesa, Apache Junction, Gold Canyon, Superstition Mountains, Kings 
  Ranch, Gold Camp, Lost Dutchman State Park, Goldfield and Queen 
  Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 11161 3354 11155 3350 11130 3331 11126

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

DH

165 
WGUS75 KPSR 290036
FFSPSR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
536 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

AZC013-021-290046-
/O.EXP.KPSR.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-220729T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Maricopa AZ-Pinal AZ-
536 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAWTOOTH AND SUPERSTITION BURN SCAR 
WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARICOPA AND PINAL 
COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Friday for a 
portion of south central Arizona.

LAT...LON 3338 11161 3354 11155 3350 11130 3331 11126

$$

DH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1052 AM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

..UPDATE...18z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A flood watch remains in effect for Phoenix and over higher
terrain locations north and east of Phoenix through Thursday night.
An abundance of moisture will allow any showers and storms that
develop to produce heavy rainfall. The highest chances for showers
and storms through the weekend will be over higher terrain areas,
but daily rain chances of 20 to 40 percent extend into the
Phoenix area. High temperatures will continue to run below normal
over the majority of the area with highs from the upper nineties
in the Phoenix area to just over 100 degrees across the western
deserts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Desert Southwest continues to see deep monsoonal moisture over
the bulk of the region and this should persist through at least
the weekend. PWATs exceeding 90% of climo cover the majority
Arizona (except for eastern Arizona) with the highest anomalous
PWATs (99% of climo) over north central Arizona. The problem with
having this much moisture is it means the atmosphere is having a
difficult time destabilizing due to abundant cloud cover. A good
trigger for organized convection has been lacking and this will
overall continue to be an issue over the next several days.

KFGZ and KTWC 00Z raobs show a moist atmosphere through the
entire column with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, but overall very weak
winds aloft. Latest HRRR shows expanding shower coverage over
south-central Arizona through sunrise. Although lapse rates are
quite poor, there is a general lack of CIN through much of the
column and it would not take much to trigger shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity early this morning. It is becoming
increasingly evident that the best chance for rain today over the
lower deserts is likely going to be before noon as a weakening
vort center is now entering southeast Arizona. This compact
disturbance is likely to bring just enough forced ascent for
at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
Pinal and Maricopa Counties this morning. By this afternoon, the
vort center is forecast to move well south of Phoenix with
activity diminishing over the lower deserts. Shower and
thunderstorm potential then will become focused over the high
terrain north and east of Phoenix this afternoon into early this
evening. Heavy rainfall and potential localized flooding will
continue to be the main forecast concern with any shower and
thunderstorm activity today. However, forecast CAPE over
southwest Arizona and even into portions of south-central Arizona
is quite low for today and Friday. WPC's Day 1 & 2 EROs now has
the slight risk pulled farther to the east where the better
instability resides. As a result, we have cancelled the Flood
Watch for La Paz Co. and western Maricopa Co.

The weather pattern changes very little through the weekend with
deep moist southeasterly flow persisting over much of the region.
The moisture will be available for shower and thunderstorm
activity through at least the weekend, but there are no
discernible disturbances for triggers and the flow aloft will
remain weak. Overall, convection is likely to remain favored more
over the high terrain through the weekend with more
isolated/scattered coverage over the lower deserts. Due to
persistent high moisture content, temperatures should on average
remain several degrees below normal across southern Arizona to a
couple degrees below normal over southeast California. The sub-
tropical high center is favored to finally shift back to the east
at some point early next week which will may lead to some modest
drying across the region. This is mostly reflected in lower NBM
PoPs across the western deserts by next Tuesday, but 40-60% PoPs
stick around for the eastern Arizona high terrain. If the
atmosphere does dry out a little next week, it will likely become
more conducive for more organized storm outflows and stronger wind
potential over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1750z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Widespread showers have mainly stayed west of the terminals, but
now in more unstable air to the west, isolated storms were
rapidly developing. Anticipating VCTS for all terminals into early
afternoon, through 21-22z timeframe. Impacts would be mainly
brief heavy rainfall. After that, we are likely to see a break
into the evening for rainfall and storms. Winds will generally be
westerly through early evening before shifting back around to the
east. Some erratic winds around storms through early afternoon but
not expecting anything above 25kts. Cloud cover will continue to
be sct/bkn in mid levels with high level bkn clouds persisting.
Have introduced some VCSH again for the morning hours. Guidance
continues to hint at this occurring again in some areas.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
IPL: Generally SE winds continue through the period with SCT/BKN
mid and upper cloud cover.

BLH: South winds become more SE by early evening. Slightly better
chance (10-20%) in this area for a shower or storm today - but
still too low confidence to include VC in TAF. BKN mid level
clouds are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant monsoonal moisture will persist across the area for the
foreseeable future keeping the overall fire threat low. The main
threat through at least the weekend will be daily chances for
thunderstorms, particularly across the high terrain. A flood
watch is also in effect for areas from Phoenix eastward through
Thursday tonight. MinRH values will remain quite high, ranging
from 25-30% over SW AZ and SE CA to 30-45% near Phoenix and points
eastward. Wetting rain chances through the weekend range from
10-30% over the Arizona lower deserts to upwards of 50-70% over
high terrain areas. Winds will generally remain light, save for
brief gusts near any stronger storms.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ537-540>558-560>563.

CA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Heil/Frieders
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman