Tornado Warning 1, NWS Pocatello, ID

448 
WWUS55 KPIH 220111
SVSPIH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
711 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

IDC077-220121-
/O.EXP.KPIH.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220922T0115Z/
Power ID-
711 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL POWER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
715 PM MDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Idaho.

LAT...LON 4255 11280 4283 11269 4277 11250 4273 11250
      4273 11248 4251 11270
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 205DEG 34KT 4275 11261 

$$

DMH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
120 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

.SHORT TERM...tonight through Thursday night.

Upper low over northern California will move into eastern Oregon
tonight before arriving in western Montana on Thursday. Central
and eastern Idaho is under a favorable area for severe
thunderstorms with over 50kts of 0-6km shear present over the
region. Main severe threat includes large hail and damaging winds,
an isolated tornado due to interaction with the terrain is
possible but not likely because of weak low level shear. A severe
thunderstorms watch is in effect for most of central and east
Idaho into the early evening hours. A cold front will march
through the area this evening, with cooler more stable air
filtering into the region. HREF shows rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast through the
night. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day
tomorrow, mainly across the high country. Storms are moving rather
quickly which will limit the flooding threat, however, given
precipitable water values of greater than 0.75" some heavy
downpours are possible. As these storms advance into the upper
Snake highlands, we expect the rainfall totals to mount through
the night and into Thursday. Rainfall totals of 0.1-0.5" inches
are likely most areas with 0.7-1.5" possible across the greater
Island Park/Driggs areas. Rainfall amounts may vary greatly
depending upon which areas see storms tonight.

13

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday
The extended forecast is looking warm and dry for the most part.
Ridging starts to build back in on Friday and strengthens throughout
the weekend and early next week. We will still be a bit breezy on
Friday as the closed low continues farther north an east with gusts
around 15-25 kts. As the ridge strengthens, our temperatures will
warm into the upper 70s and low 80s by Sunday and stay above average
for this time of the year at least into midweek. Generally speaking,
record highs next week are in the low to mid 80s, so we will be back
in record-high territory with our afternoon highs Monday through
Wednesday. The higher elevations will see highs in the mid to upper
70s. There is a bit of disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF on
timing, but both models show a weak shortwave working its way
through during the late Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. This would
help flatten the ridge a bit ahead of the next potential system
arriving at the end of next week. As that system is outside of the
forecast period and over a week away, there are plenty of
uncertainties with it and for now is just something to watch as
models evolve over the next week. AMM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z Wednesday - 18Z Thursday
Expect showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, evening, and
overnight into Thursday. Conditions look to stay overall VFR, but
CIGs/VIS will approach and could drop to MVFR when storms pass over
terminals. These storms could produce some good downpours,
lightning, and gusty winds. Some storms could be severe, producing
60+ mph gusts. Outside of storms, gusts around 20-25 kts will be
possible, though gusts from outflow boundaries could be stronger.
While the bulk of the widespread activity looks to wrap up around
12Z Thursday, spotty showers will continue through Thursday before
we dry out completely by Friday morning. AMM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system and associated cold front
will work through the region tonight. Many areas will see showers
and thunderstorms with widespread wetting rains likely. Isolated
to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible
Thursday. Gusty winds are likely as well on Thursday with gusts of
20-25 mph possible..

13

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
542 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORT HALL               43.02N 112.45W
09/21/2022  M48 MPH          BANNOCK            ID   MESONET

            ITD FORT HALL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
544 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLACKFOOT               43.19N 112.34W
09/21/2022  M46 MPH          BINGHAM            ID   MESONET

            NOAA ARL FRD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
602 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

IDZ057-220045-
Raft River Region ID-
602 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Oneida
and southeastern Cassia Counties through 645 PM MDT...

At 602 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Juniper, or 22 miles southeast of Malta, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Juniper and Sweetzer Summit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Idaho.

&&

LAT...LON 4232 11316 4215 11276 4200 11291 4200 11330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 206DEG 13KT 4202 11316

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DMH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
614 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S SPENCER             44.34N 112.19W
09/21/2022  M47 MPH          CLARK              ID   MESONET

            NOAA ARL FRD CHINA POINT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
632 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 NE IDAHOME           42.54N 113.21W
09/21/2022  M73 MPH          CASSIA             ID   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            RAFT RIVER RAWS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
635 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

IDZ057-059-220100-
Franklin/Eastern Oneida Region ID-Raft River Region ID-
635 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Oneida,
south central Power and east central Cassia Counties through 700 PM
MDT...

At 634 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Juniper, or 23 miles east of Malta, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Juniper, Sweetzer Summit and Sublett Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Idaho.

&&

LAT...LON 4212 11295 4222 11311 4248 11308 4225 11267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 218DEG 47KT 4230 11290

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

EC