Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
219 PM MDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms from earlier today have shifted into Wyoming,
leaving behind plenty of sunshine and opportunity for fresh
afternoon convective development. Satellite and radar imagery
shows weak showers have developed across portions of the central
mountains and along the Idaho/Nevada border south of the Magic
Valley. Both of these regions should be helped by weak upper jet
shifting east into Idaho later this evening. Best instability
should be through the Snake Plain and southern highlands. Isolated
strong storms are expected with strong DCAPE indicating potential
for 50mph gusts. PW approaching 1.0" this afternoon shows
additional potential through the evening for locally heavy
downpours. Thunderstorm progression takes focus into northeast
highlands/Island Park area this evening. NAM and high-res models
continue to advertise continued light convection overnight mainly
over the central mountains, though recent runs have begun
spreading coverage across the rest of the forecast area. Frontal
passage overnight/early Sunday expected to limit the precipitation
to central mountains and northern zones Sunday. Winds tick upwards
but look to remain below headline thresholds, including for
American Falls Reservoir. Temperatures dip a couple degrees, but
remain at or above normal. For Monday the 4th, southwest flow
remains in place but most of the precipitation threat remains
isolated to the north through the afternoon and evening. Afternoon
and early evening winds are expected to be breezy once again, but
dropping off after sunset. DMH

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday.
As the PNW upper low continues to work northward into Canada,
ridging over the Central U.S. will gradually build back in
throughout the extended. Expect predominately dry conditions Tuesday
through the end of the long-term, with only slight potential for
showers and thunderstorms to make it over the ridge across the
Central Mountains and along the Montana border Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. Temperatures will steadily climb and remain above normal
through much of the extended, with many locations reaching the upper
90s or higher by Friday.  We could experience low-moderate heat risk
Friday and Saturday across the Snake Plane region for those who are
heat sensitive or will be exposed/active for an extended period of
time.  Winds will be breezy most afternoons and evenings, with
widespread speeds of 20-30 mph likely.  Have nudged up forecast
winds to more closely resemble NBM v4.1 predictions. Cropp

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the region
through late tonight, with the potential for all sites to be
impacted.  Forecasting VFR conditions throughout the period, however
there is potential for reductions in CIGS and VIS associated with
stronger thunderstorms.  Clouds will scatter overnight and skies
will be clear across much of the region through the morning, with
high-level clouds filtering back in tomorrow afternoon.  Winds will
be breezy, with gusts peaking around 25 kts later today. Cropp

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected
through this evening, decreasing in coverage after sunset. Gusty
and erratic winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible along with
small hail and locally heavy rainfall under the stronger storms.
Showers are expected to redevelop overnight associated with a weak
cold front shifting through East Idaho. Most of this precipitation
should be confined to the central mountains. By Sunday afternoon,
expect most of the precipitation to be limited to northern areas
mainly the Salmon and Challis and Targhee NFs. Breezy winds are
expected along with a small dip in afternoon temperatures. Similar
conditions are expected Monday the 4th, with light precipitation
remaining confined to areas along and north of the Montana border.
A ridge of high pressure returns beginning Tuesday with daytime
highs reaching well into the 90s by the weekend and predominantly
dry conditions most areas. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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