Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
247 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2022

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sun afternoon. Thunderstorm activity
continues this afternoon and early tonight, which is a
continuation of the morning convection that never really let up.
On Sat, a cold front will add to the mix of weather, with the
strongest wind seen in quite a while, after two monsoonal push
events. Gusts to 45 to 50 mph with the front and sustained wind
over 30 mph in the Arco Desert expected, a Wind Advisory has been
issued for that zone. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for the
American Falls Reservoir for much of the day. In addition, there
are Red Flag Warnings out for selected zones where the humidity
will combine with wind. The front will also trigger some
thunderstorm activity, but nowhere near to what has been
experienced in the previous couple of days and what is expected
tonight. Wind and thunderstorms should be over by 2100 or so, and
Sunday temperatures should be cooler, and the wind will not be as
windy, but will be in the breezy to windy category for the eastern
Magic Valley and Snake River plain. Messick

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday. Models continue to
have better consensus in the long term. Model clusters support high
pressure through the period, with ridging starting to build in
Sunday night and the ridge axis moving east of our area Thursday
into Friday. With southwest flow on Thursday, models show Thursday
as the hottest day. The NBM model is forecasting record to near
record temperatures Thursday for most of our area. The ECMWF extreme
forecast index (EFI) is showing well above normal temperatures on
Thursday and Friday. The GFS model and, to a lesser degree, the
ECMWF model continue to show a weak trough moving up from Nevada
Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a slight chance of convective
activity. Otherwise, expect very dry conditions, overall light
winds, and mostly clear skies during the rest of the period.
Temperatures look to be in the 80s in the mountains and 90s in the
valleys on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures are approaching 100
degrees for Shoshone on Thursday.
Wyatt

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.AVIATION...Look for vicinity showers and thunderstorms for all TAF
sites, except BYI, this afternoon into early evening. KSUN, KPIH,
and, to a lesser degree, KIDA have the best chances for convective
activity on stations. Look for gusts of around 20 kts for all TAF
sites this afternoon. Wyatt

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.FIRE WEATHER...Extreme low fuels, very windy conditions, and very
low humidity will bring Red Flag conditions to the Salmon-Challis
NF, the southern portion of the Sawtooth NF, and the adjoining
BLM lands. For the Sawtooth NF, the wind and low humidity develop
before noon, while it takes a while in the central Idaho
mountains. The front will also generate some limited thunderstorm
activity. In the post-frontal regime, temperatures are cooled by
around 7 deg F, which should keep most afternoon humidity above
the 15 percent threshold and end the Red Flag conditions. Wind
will still be hitting critical fire weather thresholds, so the
humidity may need another look for Sun. Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ052.

Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ054.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ427.

Red Flag Warning from 3 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ475-476.

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