Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
239 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Wednesday)...
It's a noticeably humid day across eastern Idaho with widespread
dewpoints in the 50s and even lower 60s across the region.
Widespread clouds have been observed throughout the day which has
helped keep temps down a bit but atmospheric moisture remains near
record levels. Despite the high moisture content, things were
fairly quiet weather wise during the morning and early afternoon.
Over the last hour or so, showers and thunderstorms have finally
begun to develop across the Arco Desert and up towards the Montana
Divide. This area and to the east across the Upper Snake and into
the eastern highlands, including the far SE corner appear to be
the primary focus areas through the evening for showers and
thunderstorms. This has excellent support with the hi- res CAMs so
confidence in this is fairly high. Given the ample moisture in
place, localized flooding could be a concern with any slow moving
storms as these will likely be efficient rain producers.
Additionally, gusty outflow winds and small hail will also be a
threat. Moisture will be much more limited tomorrow and PoPs look
to drop off accordingly. Not expecting much if anything precip-
wise after daybreak tomorrow except perhaps in and around the
Teton Valley and the Island Park area but would be very isolated
in nature. Temps today have been slow to warm with widespread
cloud cover but occasional breaks in the clouds have allowed temps
to warm a few degrees in a short period of time. Fewer clouds
tomorrow should allow temps to once again flirt with 90 degrees
across the valleys of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. ASM

.LONG TERM (Thursday - next Tuesday)...
A closed low continues to sit off the west coast with a low
making its way across Canada to end the week. This will bring
about a 20% chance of some mostly isolated showers and storms on
Thursday, but a higher chance of rain and storms on Friday. A
shortwave trough clips the area late Friday and into the weekend.
The ECMWF isn't particularly impressed with this, but the GFS is
and therefore wants to bring in some more moisture for the
weekend. Confidence in the GFS isn't very high at this point, but
will keep some slight POPs around both Saturday and Sunday. The
low off the west coast likely starts to make its move mid next
week, which will bear watching as it could bring some more rain
and storm chances. Temperatures throughout the period will remain
near or slightly below average for early August, staying in the
upper 80s and low 90s for the most part. AMM/ASM

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday
Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period,
though short periods of rain and storms could impact this. Mainly
VCTS at all sites as storms move from west to east. Most of the
activity should come to an end around 04-05Z Wednesday. Winds will
be a bit gusty until rain and storms come to an end, between 15-
20kts. Mid to upper level clouds will decrease by early Wednesday,
too. AMM/ASM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This afternoon into early evening look for mostly scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Outflows of 30 to 35 mph are
likely with gusts up to 40 to 45 mph possible, especially for our
western areas where it is not as moist. The Upper Snake plain and
the northern Eastern Highlands will see scattered thunderstorms
and likely to definite showers. Have held off on Red Flag warnings
due to the moderate to heavy rainfall expected with these storms
in these areas. Precipitable water amounts are 1 to 1.25 inches.
Zones 410, 411, and 413 will have areas receive 0.25 to 0.75 inch
of rain with localized higher amounts. The rest of our areas,
especially western areas, will see less than 0.10 inch of rain
today. Wednesday will be mostly dry with a return of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, mainly for our southern areas, on
Thursday and Friday. Also, Thursday and Friday look breezy, with
gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures do drop 5 to 10 degrees today
and Wednesday over what we had yesterday. Temperatures do warm
back up by Friday and continue into early next week. Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&