Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Pocatello, ID

754 
WGUS75 KPIH 012314
FFSPIH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
514 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022

IDC005-029-020115-
/O.CON.KPIH.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220802T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bannock ID-Caribou ID-
514 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL BANNOCK AND WESTERN CARIBOU COUNTIES...

At 514 PM MDT, The thunderstorm that prompted the Flash Flood 
Warning has moved out of the warned area. Rainfall from the storms 
will still be working its way through the Rapid Creek and Inman 
Creek drainages toward Inkom. Flash Flooding remains possible.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Inkom.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Inman Creek and Rapid Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 11234 4290 11214 4277 11217 4279 11225
      4280 11232 4286 11233

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

DH

070 
WGUS75 KPIH 020037
FFSPIH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
637 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022

IDC005-029-020047-
/O.CAN.KPIH.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220802T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bannock ID-Caribou ID-
637 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTH CENTRAL BANNOCK AND 
WESTERN CARIBOU COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat.

LAT...LON 4293 11234 4290 11214 4277 11217 4279 11225
      4280 11232 4286 11233

$$

DH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
239 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Tuesday)...
Starting to see some more widespread CU development this afternoon
across the central mountains as well as to the south across
northern Nevada and Utah. Atmospheric moisture quickly increases
throughout the rest of the afternoon and especially into the
evening hours as the monsoonal push continues northward with PWAT
values climbing well above 1" and into the 95th+ percentile
climatologically. Initial thunderstorm development, especially in
the mountains, will likely be of the dry variety but as the
atmosphere quickly moistens, this will change to thunderstorms of
the wet variety. Some of which may be sufficient rainfall produces
so will have to keep an eye on precip accumulations once the
event is ongoing. Hi-res CAMs this morning supported decent
overnight coverage of convection with even some elevated
thunderstorm potential during the overnight hours. As we move into
Tuesday, primary focus area for precip shifts towards the SE
corner of the region where the deepest moisture will be. Things
remain unsettled throughout the day areawide however even across
the higher terrain of the central mountains. Again, given the deep
moisture in place late tonight but especially tomorrow, a close
eye will have to be kept on storms for any localized flood threat.

As far as temperatures are concerned, things remain quite hot
across the area with widespread mid to upper 90s expected as more
dense cloud cover looks to arrive past our peak heating time
frame. Heat Advisory continues across the eastern Magic Valley
towards Shoshone and into the Wood River Foothills. Things will be
cooler by some 10- 15 degrees on Tuesday however as widespread
clouds and rain will keep things noticeably cooler. ASM

.LONG TERM (Wednesday - next Monday)...
The forecast period starts with mainly zonal flow through the
area, ECMWF and GFS can agree on that. Models also agree on a
trough moving almost along the US/Canada border from west to east
on Thursday and Friday. This will make for some breezy conditions
both days and opens the door to bring in some more monsoonal
moisture and the next best chance for widespread rain and
convection to the area on Friday. A second trough follows a
similar path through the weekend, but the GFS wants to keep it a
bit farther north. To split the difference, keeping lower POPs in
the forecast through Saturday and Sunday and even into Monday. As
far as temperatures go, the ridge tries to build back in Wednesday
into Thursday, but thanks to the end of the week and weekend
troughs, it will break down a bit more again and keep our
temperatures at or slightly below our average low 90s before the
ridge begins to build in again and temperatures start to warm.
Taking into account the CPC 6-10 Day outlook, we can expect at
40-50% chance of above normal temperatures as we get to the end of
this forecast period. AMM/ASM

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday
Monsoonal moisture returns Monday afternoon, so expect an
increase in cloud cover and each site contains VCTS for pop up
showers and storms. VFR conditions are expected to continue,
though cigs drop to around 7000ft. Winds pick up after 20Z with
gusts between 15-20kts until around 06Z Tuesday. Expect winds to
be a bit lighter at KSUN, staying around 10kts. Coverage of rain
and storms picks up after 06Z Tuesday. AMM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoon moisture is moving up from Utah currently. Expect isolated
thunderstorms mainly for our southern and northern areas. For our
southern areas, zones 427 and 413, these storms late this
afternoon into early evening could have locally heavy rain with
them. Precipitable water amounts rise to around 1 to 1.25 inches
by early evening along the Utah border. For our northern areas
today, isolated thunderstorms are likely for zones 475 and 476
with moisture moving into the area combined with a weak short wave
aloft. Thunderstorms look to occur by late afternoon and continue
to early evening. For our northern areas, these isolated
thunderstorms will be mostly dry and have gusty outflows up to
around 40 to 45 mph. On Tuesday, look for a repeat of isolated
showers and thunderstorms for most areas. Our southeast areas,
zone 413, will likely just see isolated thunderstorms due to
extensive cloud cover. Have held off on scattered thunderstorm
coverage and thus any Red Flag warnings. However, expect moderate
to heavy rain fall mainly along the Utah and Wyoming borders,
especially for zone 413, on Tuesday. Wednesday looks dry with a
return of isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly for our
southern areas, on Thursday and Friday. Also, Thursday and Friday
look breezy with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures do drop 5 to
10 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday before warming back up by
Friday and continuing into the weekend. Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051-055-075.

&&