Coastal Flood Warning 8, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1051 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move across southern Canada today, dragging a
powerful cold front across our area. Arctic high pressure will
build over the region this weekend. This high will depart early
next week, followed by a milder Pacific high which will promote
a warming trend through the last week of 2022.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1035 AM...As of this time, the cold front has entered our region
and is moving east through eastern PA and Delmarva as it
continues to maintain a north-south orientation. The center of
the low was over eastern Ontario at this time. Right along the
front, there is a sharp line of showers and we've even had some
reports of graupel and some thunder. This is indicative of the
incredible amount of energy with this system as it continues to
intensify. As the front crosses, expect the rain showers to
change over to a quick burst of snow as temperatures begin to
plunge. Any accumulation should be minor...up to an inch or so
in the southern Poconos but elsewhere mostly a half inch or
less and probably nothing near the coast. The main story though
will be a quick reduction in visibility that may accompany the
snow along with potentially very icy conditions as any standing
water quickly refreezes with the falling temperatures. Otherwise,
the other story will be the strong winds and plunging temperatures.
Still expecting winds gusting 40 to 50+ mph right along and
just behind the front (which has already started to occur in
places) and a sharp temperature drop on the order of 20 to 30
degrees or more within just a few hours. And by late day, as
temperatures continue to plunge, dangerously cold conditions
will become the primary hazard as any snow will have ended. So
all in all, a wild day weather-wise! It's worth noting that the
combined impacts of any power outages due to the strong winds
plus the extreme cold to follow could be significant. Finally,
there will be continuing rises on the rivers continuing through
late day today into the weekend but the threat for flooding as
diminished.

Tonight the main theme is bitter cold. Winds likely stay upwards
of 20 mph much of the night with gusts over 30 mph at times,
with temperatures dropping into the single digits for much of
the area, and below zero on the Poconos. This will drop wind
chills down to near or below -10 for most, and below -20 in the
Poconos. Thus, wind chill advisories remain in place for the
entire area tonight. This looks to be one of the most brutally
cold night's we've seen in a long time, quite a few years for
sure.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Bitterly cold weekend ahead, with Saturday being the coldest and
windiest of the two days. Low pressure will be slowly retreating
northwards into Canada on Saturday, with a ridge of surface high
pressure extending straight north to south across the western
high plains. In between, the gradient will keep winds sustained
at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, and temperatures will be
brutally cold, with readings struggling to reach 20. With
the upper trough still nearby, expect a decent amount of
stratocumulus to develop as well. The one perhaps good thing is
that it will be quite dry, with the only chance of perhaps a few
flurries being up in the Poconos, and even there, just flurries.

The high slowly starts shifting southeastward Saturday night as
the low stalls near James Bay. The gradient will relax a little
and cold advection will have ceased. In fact, temperatures look
likely to be a few degrees milder Saturday night, and with less
wind (10-15 mph with a few gusts up to 25 mph), wind chills
won't be as brutal as they will be tonight, either. Clouds
should start to clear out as the trough begins to lift. Lows for
most look like they'll stay in the teens Saturday night, vs the
single digits expected tonight, with wind chills staying about
10 degrees milder.

Sunday will see a notable moderating trend...still quite cold
for this time of year, but 5-10 degrees milder and a few mph
less of wind. This will be thanks to the high starting to
recenter over the deep south and the low pressure gradually
weakening to our north. Additionally, with the trough aloft
having lifted out a bit, we should see more sun than on
Saturday.

By Sunday night, the high will be solidly over the deep south,
and the low will start retreating again as it continues
weakening over eastern Canada. The gradient will relax further,
with winds dropping back to around 10 mph. Skies will also clear
out as the trough continues to lift away. However, this will
result in a better radiational cooling set up, so expect lows to
only be a degree or two milder than Saturday night, with
widespread low-mid teens. Wind chills will mostly stay above 0,
however.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moderation is name of the game in the final week of 2022. As the
week progresses, we look likely to see, on average, a 5 degree
gain in high temperatures each day, starting out Monday closer
to 30 but ending up Friday nearer to 50, with slow but steady
uptick each day.

The initial high pressure will be weakening and passing into the
Atlantic on Monday. This wil keep some sun around and help with
the moderation trend, but still expect most areas to stay below
freezing for one more day.

By Tuesday, a weak clipper system will pass by the region,
heralding the steadier warming trend as the flow shifts to a
more zonal one. Will have to watch for a few snow showers or
flurries as the system passes, but right now am keeping a dry
forecast.

Wednesday thru Friday, we'll have a Pacific high pressure
building eastward over us, and centering near the East Coast.
This will provide a milder west to southwest wind, but
relatively light, and it will also help usher in a seasonably
milder air mass. By late week we'll be notably back above
normal, but at least through Friday, the high should also keep
us dry.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...IFR/lingering LIFR conditions early then improving
following the passage of a strong cold front. Expect the front
to impact KABE/KRDG around 15z, the I-95 terminals by 16z, then
to the coast by 17z. Expect RA with the frontal passage and a
possible burst of SHSN with immediate passage of the front.
Winds will be mostly southerly ahead of the front then sharply
veering to southwesterly/westerly behind it. Winds 20-25 kts
with gusts to 40 kts expected, and potentially higher gusts
associated with the frontal passage. Moderate confidence
overall.

Tonight...Conditions improving to VFR by early evening.
Westerly winds 15-20 knots with gusts 30-35 knots. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR. Wind west to southwest 15-20 kts with 30 kt
gusts. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR. Wind west 10-15 kts with 20 kt gusts. High
confidence.

Monday...VFR. Wind west 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. Wind west around 5 kts. High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings remain in effect for all coastal waters and the
Small Craft Advisory for the Delaware Bay continues. The Small
Craft Advisory will upgrade to a Gale Warning at 7AM. East to
Southeast winds will increase through the day with sustained
winds of 30-35 knots and gusts to 40-50 knots expected for the
ocean waters. Gusts will peak early afternoon around the time
of cold front passage when some brief storm force gusts are
possible with a sharp wind shift from southerly to westerly.
Temperatures will plummet late. Rain with a brief burst of snow
possible this afternoon.

Outlook...

Gales and much colder temps will continue tonight into Saturday.
Freezing spray advisories may be required for this period due to
the gusty winds and much colder air moving in. Winds likely drop
back to SCA levels Sunday, then probably sub-SCA Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The direct onshore flow was in the process of veering to the
south and southwest early this morning. The onshore flow caused
tidal departures to increase into the +2 to +3 foot range along
the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, and into Delaware Bay and
the tidal Delaware River. The departures should remain nearly
steady or increase slightly before this morning's high tide (the
high tide occurs in the early afternoon on much of the tidal
Delaware River). We are on target to experience widespread
moderate tidal flooding and the Coastal Flood Warnings remain in
effect.

A southerly wind on the upper Chesapeake Bay early this morning
is forecast to shift to the west around mid morning with the
passage of a cold front. The water being pushed up the bay in
the southerly flow has caused tidal departure to increase to
around +2.5 feet early this morning. There is the potential for
localized minor flooding with the early morning high tide. The
west wind will likely shove the water against the upper eastern
shore this afternoon. As a result, that area is expected to
experience widespread minor tidal flooding at that time.

The west wind will begin to push water away from the Delaware
and New Jersey coasts this afternoon. Tidal departures should
begin to decrease at most locations. As a result, we are not
anticipating any additional tidal flooding after the high tide
cycles covered by the current warnings and advisories.

&&

.CLIMATE...
While the potential of a white Christmas has diminished
significantly, the potential of a very cold Christmas remains.
Highs are currently projected to get no higher than the 20s both
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. This is a decent cold snap for
any December, as the last time we had two or more days in a row
with highs in the 20s at PHL was back in 2017, 5 years ago.
However, for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day itself, it's more
notable, as we've been on quite a stretch of warm Christmases of
late. The last time the high on Christmas Day itself stayed
below 30 was back in 2000, when the high was only 27. The last
time both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day stayed below 30 was
back in 1989, when the high Christmas Eve was only 21 and the
high Christmas Day was only 28. So, this year's Christmas
weekend has the potential to be the coldest in over 30 years.
Something to think about if you are planning any outdoor
services.

All this having been said, it will be be tough to match the
coldest Christmas eve and Christmas Days on record, which for
much of our area dates back to 1989 and 1983. Particularly in
1983, we had some of the coldest weather we ever see in our
region, with many areas below zero at night and not even
reaching 10 above during the day.

Record coldest high and low temperatures for Christmas Eve and
Christmas Day are listed below:

Record Coldest High Temperatures

                         12/24                12/25
Site               Record/Year          Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)        18/1960               8/1983
AC Airport (ACY)       21/1989              10/1983
AC Marina (55N)        19/1906              12/1983
Georgetown (GED)       27/1989              26/1983
Mount Pocono (MPO)     15/1935 & 1983        1/1983
Philadelphia (PHL)     21/1906 & 1989       10/1983
Reading (RDG)          16/1906              20/1983
Trenton (TTN)          18/1872               8/1983
Wilmington (ILG)       21/1989              10/1983

Record Coldest Low Temperatures

                         12/24                12/25
Site               Record/Year          Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)        -5/1989              -2/1983
AC Airport (ACY)       -1/1983              -2/1980 & 1983
AC Marina (55N)         6/1983               4/1983
Georgetown (GED)        9/1989               2/1989
Mount Pocono (MPO)    -20/1989             -13/1980
Philadelphia (PHL)      3/1983               1/1980 & 1983
Reading (RDG)           4/1989              -2/1980
Trenton (TTN)          -4/1983              -3/1983
Wilmington (ILG)       -5/1983              -7/1983

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for PAZ070-071-101>106.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for PAZ054-055-060>062.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ070-
     071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ016.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ001-
     007>010-012-015>019-021.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for NJZ009-010-012>027.
     Coastal Flood Warning until noon EST today for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ013-
     014-020-022>027.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NJZ001-007-008.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for DEZ001.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for DEZ001>004.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     DEZ001>003.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for DEZ001>004.
     Coastal Flood Warning until noon EST today for DEZ002>004.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for DEZ004.
MD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ012-
     015-019-020.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for MDZ012-015-019-020.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for MDZ012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ450>454.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Brudy/Iovino/RCM
NEAR TERM...Brudy/Fitzsimmons
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Brudy/RCM
MARINE...Brudy/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1157 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    1 E BRIELLE             40.11N 74.05W
12/23/2022                   MONMOUTH           NJ   OTHER FEDERAL

            THE WATSON CREEK GAUGE AT MANASQUAN CRESTED
            AT MODERATE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.37 FEET. THIS
            IS THE HIGHEST CREST SINCE OCTOBER 27 2018.
            THIS STAGE IS PRELIMINARY.

&&

STAARMANN

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