Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
511 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms return this evening and overnight with
crossing low pressure. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible, mainly south of I 76. Drier weather returns on
Thursday before additional rain chances Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
No significant chances were made to the evening/overnight
forecast, though PoPs were nudged slightly to a blend of the
latest CAM runs. Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms
are expected this evening into the overnight as sfc low
pressure with relatively strong upper jet support crosses the
region. Convection will progress east of the ridges through the
early pre-dawn hours Thursday.

Isolated strong to severe storms are still possible this
evening primarily south of I-76 where CAMs prog Eff. Bulk Shear
in the 45-55 kts range. Waning instability and llvl LRs with
loss of daytime heating will be the limiting factor as these
storms progress eastward into the CWA. Isolated hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with any strong
storms that do develop, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out given the anticipated shear profile.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Drier air will begin to overspread the region on Thursday while
upper troughing sets up over much of the east. Thursday will
see more cloud cover as cooler air spreads across the region. A
few isolated sprinkles pop up during the late morning/afternoon.

Low confidence forecast for Friday with large differences in
model solutions. Will rely on a blend of models for the Friday
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long range model ensembles indicate a low in the periphery could
introduce rain to the area this weekend. Temperature looks to
remain seasonable and summer-like through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR should prevail through the late evening ahead of advancing
low pressure. Shra and tsra coverage should then increase after
00Z, with deterioration in both cigs and vis to MVFR/IFR
thereafter through early Thurs. Storms that do impacts regional
airports may have the potential to produce damaging wind, large
hail, and isolated tornadoes, with convection ending from west
to east through 06Z.

Lingering llvl moisture within increasing subsidence should
promote gradual improvement from IFR/MVFR and eventual VFR
by early Thurs aftn.

.Outlook...
Isolated restrictions within upper troughing may impacts ports
Friday morning, but overall VFR is expected through late Fri
under sfc high pres.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
331 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073-074-WVZ001-090745-
Columbiana-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Hancock-
331 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ039-040-049-050-PAZ029-031-075-076-WVZ002-003-509>514-090745-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Washington-Greene-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Brooke-Ohio-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
331 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe storms possible this evening. The main threat will be
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ048-057>059-068-069-WVZ004-012-021-090745-
Coshocton-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-
331 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe storms possible this evening. The main threat will
be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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