Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1127 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing cold front will keep showers and storms in the
forecast today, as well as high winds. Temperature will drop
over the weekend, with potential for snow showers Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11am update... Morning elevated convection is becoming
increasingly surface based as it moves into upper 60/lower 70
temperature in western PA/northeast WV. Strong shear with enough
CAPE (attempting to reach 500 j/kg per mesoanalysis) means areas
ahead of this convective boundary will be most likely to
experience damaging wind.

This line is expected to shift east of the region over the next
two hours, with a lull in activity until the surface cold front
approaches from the west. Along it, low-topped convection will
likely develop and could promote mixing of strong wind aloft to
sfc to create isolated gusty wind to 40+ mph. The lack of
heating recovery and waning upper jet should preclude this line
from becoming severe.

Precipitation chances will quickly drop after FROPA due to
increasing subsidence and drier air. However, the upper trough
axis won't cross the region until overnight. As this shortwave
passes, introducing colder air aloft, look for an increase in
iso/sct showers. Thermal profiles suggest p-type starting as
rain but quickly mixing with snow, if not completely changing
over. Warm surface grounds and lack of deep moisture/lift should
preclude most accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will complete its passage over the region
Friday, with the cold core and enough jet support to foster
continued iso/sct showers. Diurnal heating will lift the
rain/snow mix line northeastward, meaning most locations will
see rain. Higher elevations may see an inch of snow due to
orographic lift and cooler thermal profiles that will better
support accumulation.

It should be noted that impacts may be slightly higher than
forecasted snowfall amounts suggest. Due to steepening lapse
rates and weak instability, snow showers may become convective
(favoring the I-80 corridor) that could result in brief
visibility restrictions and quick coating of roadways in the
more intense showers.

Subsidence and high pressure will return dry weather to the
region by Friday night as the upper trough exits east. Expect
temperature to remain well below seasonal averages through this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Building high pressure over the Great Lakes will keep Saturday
weather quiet but cool, with NW flow. Warm, moist advection is
expected late Monday into Tuesday as a disturbance forms over
the Great Plains and tracks into the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR cigs and isolated to scattered rain showers are expected
through the early afternoon before a cold front crosses the
region, ushering in drier weather. Tight sfc gradient and a llvl
jet will promote 25 to 35 kt SW/SSW gusts ahead of the frontal
boundary, with potential that a shower creates local enhancement
up to 40 kts.

Upper trough passage overnight and a stronger cold advection
will support new iso/sct shower development, with thermal
profiles supporting initial rain/snow mix that will change over
to snow. MVFR to localized IFR conditions will become more
likely through this period.

.Outlook...
Restrictions and rain/snow showers are expected Friday before
VFR conditions return with crossing high pressure Saturday.
Periodic restriction and precipitation chances will continue
into early next week with additional trough passages.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
301 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

OHZ059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>514-010715-
Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-
Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
301 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with localized damaging wind gusts
are possible Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-010715-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-
301 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1052 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ029-031-WVZ004-012-021-509-311515-
Greene PA-Washington PA-Marshall WV-Marion WV-Monongalia WV-
Wetzel WV-
1052 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...STRONG SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON... WESTERN
GREENE...NORTHWESTERN MONONGALIA...NORTHEASTERN WETZEL... MARSHALL
AND NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM EDT...

At 1051 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong showers along a
line extending from near Cameron to Pine Grove. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cameron, Pine Grove, Hundred, Jacksonburg, Rogersville, Aleppo,
Amity, New Freeport, Nineveh, Wileyville, Big Run, and Knob Fork.

This includes Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 20
and 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4011 8010 3956 8040 3953 8058 3952 8075
      3982 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 239DEG 30KT 3978 8059 3957 8065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1106 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ014-021-022-029-073-075-311545-
Armstrong PA-Butler PA-Westmoreland PA-Allegheny PA-Washington PA-
Fayette PA-
1106 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...STRONG SHOWERS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...ALLEGHENY...WESTERN
WESTMORELAND...SOUTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG AND NORTH CENTRAL FAYETTE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EDT...

At 1106 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong showers along a
line extending from near Mars to near East Washington. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Mount Lebanon, Bethel Park, Ross Township,
McCandless Township, Monroeville, McMurray, McKeesport, Franklin
Park, Jeannette, and Vandergrift.

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 26 and 30, and
  between mile markers 42 and 56.
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 33 and 73.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 53 and 58.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 64 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 7952 4011 7965 4017 8017 4067 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1506Z 254DEG 32KT 4066 8002 4018 8014

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1148 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ029-031-075-WVZ012-021-509-311615-
Greene PA-Washington PA-Fayette PA-Marion WV-Monongalia WV-Wetzel WV-
1148 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
EASTERN GREENE...SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN MONONGALIA...
NORTHEASTERN WETZEL AND NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM
EDT...

At 1147 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fairview, or 9 miles north of Mannington, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesburg, Masontown, Fredericktown-Millsboro, Fairdale, Jefferson
Boro, Point Marion, Cassville, Isabella, Deemston, Bobtown,
Nemacolin, and Carmichaels.

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 15.
  Interstate 79 in West Virginia between mile markers 158 and 160.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 8040 3972 8044 4005 7998 3975 7985
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 229DEG 52KT 3966 8033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH