Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
404 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms, some being severe, will plague the
region through tonight with crossing low pressure. Unsettled
weather will then persist through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Overall forecast trend remains on track as initial shower area
continues an ewd slide acrs the Upr OH Region.

Incrg SE wind is expected through the day with a tightening sfc
pressure gradient, with gusts around 40 mph especially where
downsloping occurs in the Laurel Highlands.

Severe potential for areas generally west of I 79 remains as
diffluence and deep layer shear will increase through the
afternoon as an embedded jet streak approaches. Buoyancy will
also increase as higher sfc dewpoint are advected along and
west of I 77 especially. Instability remains the biggest
uncertainty, especially in the SPC Slight Risk/sct outlook
across OH. However, the past few hours, there has been
significant clearing in southwest PA and northwest WV that will
generate greater surface heating, greater instability, and an
environment more conducive to severe storms, and farther east
than previously thought.

The threat for today does include rotating storms given the
degree of directional shear, so isolated tornados and hail are
included, as well as the damaging gust potential. Concurrent
with this, a Tornado Watch has been issued from 18Z today to 01Z
tomorrow for portions of southwest PA, northwest WV, and
eastern OH.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue this evening as the
occluded front crosses, but the severe threat will diminish
with waning instability. Showers should gradually end overnight
with exiting upper support after FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Escalating rain chances are expected again later Thu, peaking
on Fri, as another shortwave trough and associated sfc cold
front approach and cross the region. Another approaching upr low
tracking sewd from the upr Great Lakes should maintain rain and
snow across the region Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Model ensembles indicate a longwave trough across the Ern CONUS
through early next week, with periodic rain/snow chances and
cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Continued condition deterioration can be expected this
afternoon and eve as an embedded shortwave spreads showers and
storms acrs the area. In addition, a strengthening pressure
gradient will support gusts of 20 to 35 kts acrs the region as
well as some llvl wind shear concerns in prior to that mixing.

Wind should gradually lax tonight as rain diminishes, with
MVFR/IFR cigs and patchy fog development expected.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely again Fri/Sat with upper troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
240 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

WVZ511-241845-
Preston-
240 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few isolated storms could develop this afternoon/late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-WVZ001>004-012-
021-509-510-241845-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-
Greene-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
240 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 67 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-073>076-WVZ512>514-241845-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Armstrong-
Indiana-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-
Eastern Tucker-
240 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few isolated storms could develop this afternoon/late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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