Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
824 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms are likely overnight along and ahead of an
advancing cold front. Lingering showers on Thursday will give
rise to a cool but dry end of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Moisture and instability both remain present owing to a lack of
aftn thunderstorms through much of the region. Storms are
beginning to develop in the area of Columbus as synoptic forcing
acts on an unstable and moist warm sector sprawled across
central and ern OH.

As this forcing for ascent spreads ewd across the Upper OH
Valley, convective coverage may increase overnight in two
waves: first as a cluster of storms in the 0100-0600 UTC
timeframe, and second late tonight as less-intense showers and
storms as the cold front currently crossing MI advances sewd.

Despite the atypical timeframe of these convective storms and
the shallow stable sfc layer, a non-zero threat for severe
weather still exists, especially from this first round of
storms, since the sfc inversion initially remains shallow and
the airmass is relatively unmarred by afternoon storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The entire region on Thu will be embedded in post-frontal nwly
flow. The thermal contrast between warm Lake Erie and cool land
airmass will support stratocu and showers across nern OH and
nwrn PA. Radiational cooling will be optimized Thu night as wind
slackens and sky clears, leading to overnight minima some 10F
below seasonal normal, and into the 30s in the ridges.

Friday will be defined by clear and cool conditions amid high
pressure. Temperature will again remain around 10 degrees below
average with renewed possibility of temps in the 30s Fri night
at higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is moderate confidence in the maintenance of a cool
pattern through the weekend and early next week as Fiona is
absorbed into an ern-CONUS trough along ern Canada. This
persistent ern trough may bring shower chances late in the weekend
and early next week in the proximity of a passing surface low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CAPE remains considerable in the 00Z PIT RAOB, and storms are
beginning to blossom west of ZZV as jet dynamics enhance ascent
overnight. Broader coverage of tstms is expected across the
Upper OH Valley in the 01-06Z period, after which an advancing
cold front will lead to convective overturning and widespread
showers and storms for a brief period in the 08-12Z period.

In the wake of the cold front, gusty nwly wind is anticipated
during the day Thu, with potential for lake-enhanced showers
through mid-day before high pressure dominates. MVFR conditions
are anticipated post-dawn Thu amid a cold-air advection regime.

.Outlook...
High pressure and VFR conditions can be expected much of the
weekend. The potential for restrictions returns with a cold
front on Sun.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
828 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

OHZ048-057-220100-
Coshocton OH-Muskingum OH-
828 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN COSHOCTON AND
NORTHWESTERN MUSKINGUM COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

At 827 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hanover, or 8 miles northeast of Newark, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zanesville, North Zanesville, Dresden, Frazeysburg, Drake,
Cooperdale, and Dillon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 8218 4024 8218 4024 8220 4025 8220
      4026 8196 3999 8198 4003 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 273DEG 20KT 4015 8231

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Kramar