Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
238 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms tonight will give way to a dry
Wednesday and Thursday with passage of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The aftn update included the addition of a tornado watch from
PIT, over areas west, and immediately south. Convective activity
is expected to increase with the advance of a cold front this
evening. Deep layer shear is favorable for rotating storms and
any that exhibit an east, to southeast movement will have
tornado potential. Limiting factors includes weak
instability/warm mid levels to in inhibit updraft
strength/explosiveness.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front should be in the process of exiting the eastern CWA
at 12Z Wednesday. Post-frontal showers will linger in the afternoon,
mainly east of Pittsburgh, due to ongoing advection of colder air
and vorticity, as well as an orographic component. Clouds will
persist in most locations due to lingering low-level moisture. The
passage of the shortwave trough axis during the afternoon will end
showers by evening.  The post-frontal cooler air mass will drop
temperatures a bit below normal.

Surface high pressure will return dry weather to the region for
Wednesday night and Thursday.  Cloud cover will be at a minimum
Thursday morning, before increasing upper moisture on westerly flow
increases sky cover during the afternoon.  Temperatures will recover
back to near climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next shortwave trough will slowly cross the region during the
end of the week, returning rain chances to the forecast from later
Thursday night into Saturday.  Models/ensembles appear to take this
system on a more southerly track, which could keep any severe
weather chance suppressed as well.  Clouds and rain will likely keep
diurnal temperature ranges small, trending below-normal during the
day.

Thereafter, model trends still point to a CONUS blocking pattern,
with troughs just off of the Atlantic Seaboard and over the
Rockies/western states.  This would place the Ohio Valley in a
ridging pattern that would persist from Sunday into at least the
middle of next week.  Dry weather and a warming trend thus appear
likely.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/high based -shra will continue to advance newd in
association with a warm front. Visible satellite imagery then
suggests clearing ahead of an approaching cold front, with
additional shra/tsra becoming widespread by late afternoon and
evening across all ports. These storms have the potential to
promote damaging wind and large hail provided sufficient shear.
Subsequent cig deterioration to MVFR/IFR should accompany that
FROPA tonight, with remnant -shra and poor flight restrictions
persisting through early Wed via cold advection.

.Outlook...
High pressure should return VFR by late Wed/Thurs, with
approaching low pressure reintroducing restrictions early Fri.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
240 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-073>076-WVZ511>514-041845-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Armstrong-
Indiana-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-
Eastern Tucker-
240 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated incidents of damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible
later this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-WVZ001>004-012-
021-509-510-041845-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-
Greene-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
240 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 175 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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