Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
124 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An afternoon convective complex may provide strong winds and
heavy rain mainly to areas west of Pittsburgh today. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow
afternoon, with a frontal boundary providing widespread rain
Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for a portion of the
region until 6 PM. A vigorous MCS continues to track across
Ohio at this time, now dominated by cold pool processes.
Surface destabilization has allow MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg to
build in the watch area. While the MCS continues to turn
southeastward towards even richer instability to our south and
west, the quasi-linear complex will still likely impact at least
our eastern Ohio counties with strong to perhaps severe gusts.
The thermodynamic environment that the MCS enters over WV/PA
will be less favorable, likely leading to weakening, but
isolated strong to severe gusts may still be possible as far
east as Pittsburgh, leading to the watch issuance.
Likely/categorical PoPs were used for the watch area, tapering
with time as the MCS slowly dissipates during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Activity will diurnally decrease this evening as the remnants of
the MCS depart. A few showers may be spawned in the northern
counties late tonight/Sunday morning as a shortwave passes by to
the north.

Heat and humidity will peak on Sunday in southwest flow ahead of
the next front. With high temperatures in the 90 to 95 range and
dewpoints around 70 degrees, heat index values of 95 to 100
appear likely, possible slightly higher in localized areas.
Confidence is not high enough for a Heat Advisory at this time,
but we will monitor.

A more vigorous shortwave trough dives into the northern Great
Lakes by Sunday night, pushing a cold front towards the Upper
Ohio Valley. Given high levels of instability and increasing
shear, some severe risk exists across at least the northern
counties later Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, although
timing concerns with the front lend some uncertainty.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front
across the region Sunday night and Monday. Despite high moisture
levels and ample forcing, the system should be progressive
enough initially to prevent a widespread flood threat. As the
shortwave trough departs, the front will lose a lot of its
forward momentum as it bumps into zonal flow over the Ohio
Valley. Current model/ensemble indications are that the boundary
will stall south of the PA/WV border. Thus, some chance-level
PoPs will need to be maintained mainly south of Pittsburgh
Monday night. Cannot rule out some heavy rain totals across some
of our northern WV counties over this period, but at this time,
the bulk of any flooding threat will likely lie to our south in
the richer moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The stalled front will linger over West Virginia on Tuesday,
necessitating the continuation of low PoPs in counties mainly south
of Pittsburgh. The front lifts back north as a warm front on
Wednesday, bringing increased shower and thunderstorm chances back
north in the warm, moist southwest flow. Periods of clouds and rain
will keep temperatures muted to near or just below normal, but
dewpoints will remain high through this period.

A relatively strong shortwave trough may then rotate across the
Great Lakes, helping to drive a cold front across the region during
the Thursday night/Friday period, with another round of rain
possible. Timing this far out remains questionable.  A drier air
mass may then arrive by next weekend with high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an MCS will move east
through this early evening before dissipating/weakening with the
loss of daytime heating and encountering a more stable
environment. These storms may bring a brief gust up to 30kts
from the west, brief vsbys restrictions in heavy rain, and
lightning.

Additional showers with an isolated thunderstorm may develop
around the pre-dawn hours along a potential moisture gradient.
However, confidence is too low for mention beyond FKL/DUJ where
better upper jet support exists.

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with
aftn SW wind gusts up to 20kts. Keep eye on potential for
morning patchy fog, dependent on overnight clearing and heavy
rains moistening sfc layer.

.Outlook...
Predominantly VFR conditions, outside of primarily river valley
fog, continue until a slow moving cold front brings greater
precipitation/restriction chances late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1141 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-020-021-029-031-WVZ001>004-
012-241545-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Lawrence-Beaver-Allegheny-
Washington-Greene-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
1141 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind and hail as the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ007-008-014-WVZ021-509-241545-
Mercer-Venango-Butler-Marion-Monongalia-
1141 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated instances of damaging wind gusts in thunderstorms will be
possible during the early to mid-afternoon hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind and hail as the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ009-015-016-022-023-073>076-WVZ510>514-241545-
Forest-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Armstrong-Indiana-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1141 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind and hail as the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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