Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
123 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely this afternoon and
evening with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is then expected
Thursday through Saturday under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during the late
afternoon to early evening hours ahead of an incoming weak cold
front moving southeast from the Great Lakes. Initiation will be
slightly delayed with remnant convective inhibition, but
increased jet support with an incoming weak shortwave into this
warm, humid environment should foster development along/ahead
of the boundary.

Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible, favoring
locations southeast of Pittsburgh, with the primary threats
being damaging wind and isolated large hail. The environment is
progged to have 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1000-1300 DCAPE
(buoyed by dry air aloft), but weak shear (20-30kts effective
bulk shear) will limit organization of the severe threat and
keep activity localized. Slow storm motion, dry air, and lack of
shear may allow for isolated instances of microbursts as well.

Thunderstorm chances will diminish/shift southeast with the
progressing cold front and loss of diurnal heating, with
convection likely ending across the region by midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Brief upper troughing and building surface high pressure will
create dry and seasonable conditions Thursday. High pressure
will remain the dominant feature through Saturday and maintain
dry conditions, while temperature will rise as pressure heights
increase with ridging edging northeast from the Southern Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak shortwaves rounding a developing upper level low pressure
system over the northern Great Plains will begin to break down
the ridge over the Ohio River Valley. The subsequent ridge
breakdown and associated development/progression of a surface
cold front will increase thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon
into Monday morning. Synoptic details remain too varied to note
any severe potential with this convection at this time.

A period of drier and cooler weather should develop thereafter
as broad upper troughing is expected to develop over the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds will increase through the afternoon ahead of an
advancing cold front. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to bloom ahead of the front later
this afternoon in an unstable air mass. Have used 2 hour TEMPO
groups to attempt the time of most likely impact at the
terminals, generally between 19Z and 00Z. FKL is least likely to
be hit, as the boundary may well be largely past the area by
convective initiation, and DUJ may be in this situation as well.
VFR conditions will largely prevail outside of precipitation. Although
MVFR was used in TEMPO groups, a brief period of IFR will be
possible. Strong wind gusts may also accompany the more robust
storms.

Showers and storms will exit to the east and southeast during
the evening. VFR conditions will be established once again,
although some overnight MVFR in low ceilings and mist is
possible at DUJ and MGW where drier air arrives last. Any such
restrictions will mix out by mid-morning on Thursday.

.Outlook...
General restrictions are not anticipated again until the next
cold front approaches late in the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
310 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069-PAZ014-016-020>023-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-230715-
Harrison-Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Butler-
Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-
Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
310 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early
evening with a crossing cold front. Damaging wind is expected to be
the main hazard, though large hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048-PAZ007>009-013-015-230715-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Clarion-
310 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio and western
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with a
crossing cold front. Damaging wind is expected to be the main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
345 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

OHZ039-048-057-058-222015-
Guernsey OH-Tuscarawas OH-Coshocton OH-Muskingum OH-
345 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GUERNSEY...EASTERN
COSHOCTON...NORTHEASTERN MUSKINGUM AND SOUTHWESTERN TUSCARAWAS
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 345 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of West Lafayette, or 8 miles north of Coshocton, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Coshocton, Newcomerstown, West Lafayette, Baltic, Port Washington,
Plainfield, Chili, Boden, Bakersville, and Kimbolton.

This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 52 and 69.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
east central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 8193 4045 8181 4044 8169 4025 8142
      4011 8147 4008 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 320DEG 14KT 4038 8179

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
348 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

OHZ057-058-068-222015-
Guernsey OH-Noble OH-Muskingum OH-
348 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GUERNSEY...
SOUTHEASTERN MUSKINGUM AND WEST CENTRAL NOBLE COUNTIES THROUGH 415
PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 9
miles southwest of New Concord, or 10 miles southeast of Zanesville,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Caldwell, Philo, Cumberland, Belle Valley, Chandlersville, Ruraldale,
High Hill, Duncan Falls, Blue Rock State Park, and Wolf Run State
Park.

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 165 and 166.
  Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 25 and 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
east central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 3998 8181 3976 8147 3966 8162 3967 8164
      3975 8164 3976 8191 3985 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 319DEG 14KT 3989 8184

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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