Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
329 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

The threat for severe winds and perhaps a brief tornado is
increasing rapidly across southern Missouri. Will likely continue
to move east and possibly accelerate some late this afternoon.

Developing MCS associated with an MCV from overnight and early day
convection has consolidated into an organized bow echo over the
past hour, and is likely already producing a nearly solid area of
severe wind gusts and some large hail. Downstream, the air mass
continues to become more unstable with temperatures above 80 F and
MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg. Omega fields are also increasing across
southeast MO as the air mass warms.

Given the substantial amount of instability, very moist air mass
ahead of the system, and favorable time of day...further
strengthening is expected, with large swaths of significant wind
damage possible. An additional watch will likely be needed farther
east across the MS River through southern IL into the EVV Tri
State region later this afternoon into this evening as the
complex continues to plow east.

Rainfree, breezy south to southwest winds 15-25 mph and
unseasonably warm temps will follow this system later tonight and
Friday. Could see some wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range with
high temps near 90 in many locations. Warm and moist sw flow aloft
will continue into Saturday and Saturday night, as a weak cold
front approaches very slowly from the west. This front will bring
the next decent chc for at least some scattered showers and
thunderstorms, esp by Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Shower/thunderstorm chcs will likely continue through much of
Sunday, esp over portions of srn IL/wrn KY and sw IN, as a weak
frontal system continues to creep slowly through the region
within a broad and moist swly flow aloft. May get another break in
the precip on Monday as high pressure moves east through the
Midwest and southern Great Lakes regions.

However, the break looks to be rather brief, as the mid level
flow becomes even more southerly, and a deepening short wave digs
southeast into the Southern Plains later Tuesday through
Thursday. The result could be a rather wet/unsettled period with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Expecting a round of strong/severe thunderstorms to move east
through the region late this afternoon and early tonight. Highest
chances for severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will
be over much of se MO (later afternoon) and along/north of the OH
River (evening). A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Expecting
VFR conditions generally outside of any convection.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...GM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
211 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

INZ081-082-087-088-192000-
Warrick IN-Gibson IN-Spencer IN-Pike IN-
211 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Warrick, northeastern Spencer, southeastern Gibson and southeastern
Pike Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 211 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lynnville, or 9 miles south of Oakland City, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Folsomville and Dale.

This includes Interstate 64 in Indiana between Mile Markers 36 and
60.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southwestern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3807 8680 3811 8737 3829 8737 3832 8707
      3820 8707 3821 8680 3812 8680 3812 8681
      3811 8680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 269DEG 18KT 3821 8733

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

York

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             2 SSW POSEYVILLE        38.14N 87.80W
05/19/2022  E2.75 INCH       POSEY              IN   PUBLIC

            LATE REPORT. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL OCCURRED AT
            THE NORTH POSEY HIGH SCHOOL. CARS WERE
            DAMAGED.

&&

CW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service PADUCAH KY
342 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MOZ076-086-087-100-107-110-111-192245-
Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Stoddard-Scott-
Including the cities of Perryville, Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau,
Jackson, Piedmont, Van Buren, Bloomfield, and Sikeston
342 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...Severe Thunderstorms Expected Across Southeast Missouri...

Severe thunderstorms over southern Missouri will move into Carter
and Wayne counties between 415 and 445 PM CDT. If they continue
on their current path they will reach Bollinger and Cape Girardeau
counties around 530-630 PM.

Extremely large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be
possible with these storms.

Other storms may develop out ahead of these so keep updated on the
latest weather. A tornado watch is in effect for the area until
7PM.

PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

ILZ080-192315-
Perry IL-
533 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Perry County
through 615 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Freeburg to near Bremen.
Movement was northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Pinckneyville around 550 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 8919 3796 8957 3796 8959 3822 8959
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 226DEG 58KT 3840 8977 3792 8975

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E PERRYVILLE          37.73N 89.86W
05/19/2022  M66 MPH          PERRY              MO   ASOS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HIGH SUST WINDS REPORT
            FROM 1 E PERRYVILLE.

&&

BDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
551 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     TSTM WND GST     CUTLER                  38.03N 89.57W
05/19/2022  M73 MPH          PERRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDM