Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

With mid 60s dew points and mid 80s temperatures, there is still
a chance for diurnal instability showers/storms, despite the
relative dearth of current coverage. Cam modeling shows the
activity just to our north/east may backbuild into our east, while
some (not all) appear to congest the agitated cu field in SEMO and
develop active convection there. It's enough to tailor pops from
slight chance (west) to mid chance (east) thru the heating hours.
Severe potential is limited, but at least some minimal DCAPE and
virtually no inhibition might lend toward an isolated downburst
chance with a rogue cell or two.

Afterward, that warm/soupy air will remain settled under a
relative clear-out. Numerical mos suggests with light winds/clear
skies and dew point depressions dropping to 3F or less, patchy
fog may develop.

Tmrw is our best chance of storms, including strong-svr storms, as
a cold front approaches/makes passage. It hits at peak heating and
all Cams are active with its linear development. Given the early
summer-like heat/humidity/instability, this focusing mechanism and
attendant steepening of lapse rates during the afternoon will
promote bowing segments with strong/svr potential for wind/hail.We
remain predominantly under a slight risk, excepting a portion of
our Ozarks enveloped within the Enhanced risk that was issued
primarily for parts of KS/OK/SW MO.

The Monday airmass will be pleasant post fropa, with 70s
commonplace for highs and markedly lower humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Much of Tuesday still looks to be nice, as the high pressure ridge
axis responsible for the pleasant conditions Monday goes on and
shifts its axis across the area and eastward. Just developing return
flow may allow a small pop chance to sneak into our far west late
in the day, as dew points and temperatures begin to nudge upward
again.

Meanwhile, a transition to a more zonal flow pattern allows
Plains development to stream across the FA thereafter, offering
what looks to be more or less, off and on pcpn chances thru the
remainder of the week. It is difficult to trust the timing or
determine the exact meso influences therin, but the model's
synoptic scale boundary evolution suggests best pcpn chances to be
focused mid week, vs late week.

In fact, toward days 6-7, a stronger carving of an upper level
trof will make its way into the Mississippi Valley, while
regressive ridging in the East dearths our Friday pop, before it
amplifies again going into the weekend with the approach of the
aforementioned long wave trof.

With respect to temps/humidity, after Tuesday, it looks like
the summer like feel, with highs in the 80s, and lows and dew
points in the 60s/near 70, returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

An outflow boundary is currently moving across terminals KOWB/KEVV
causing a temporary wind shift to easterly and wind gusts over 20
kts. Thunderstorms are currently across southwest IN and
surrounding areas, but will diminish later this evening. Western
terminals have a lower but non-zero chance of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm this evening. Late tonight into the early
morning there is the potential for some patchy fog to develop
across all terminals. While any fog will be localized, vis can
drop down to 2-3 miles during this time. Showers and a few
thunderstorms return later tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DW
AVIATION...DW